Friday Faceoff: Who Will Advance to Cup’s Championship 4?

Which four drivers will advance to the NASCAR Cup Series Championship 4?

Luken Glover: This is a very well-rounded group of eight and this round in particular is a strong slate for several drivers. It would be criminal to exclude Kyle Larson at the present moment, and he’s won at all three of the Round of 8 tracks. A 33-point cushion should help his cause to advance. This round also lines up well for Ryan Blaney. Martinsville Speedway is the only track he has won at among the three, but he’s shown speed at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, and he’s been in contention for the win the past two years at Homestead-Miami Speedway. His stats and feast-or-famine playoffs may look worse than last year, but Blaney may be in a better spot than his title run a year ago.

Christopher Bell also has a strong chance to make it. Bell has quietly been the most consistent driver of the playoff competitors and he’s a former winner at both Homestead and Martinsville. Finally, Chase Elliott is my sleeper. He’s already behind, sitting nine points below the cut line. However, Elliott has proven to be one of the best at earning points this season, and he’s been flying under the radar this postseason.

Andrew Stoddard: Well, let’s start with the obvious. Larson enters the Round of 8 with a 33-point margin above the cut line and he and the No. 5 team have looked 2021-esque going back to the win at Bristol Motor Speedway. He will be back in the mix at Phoenix Raceway. Larson will be joined by Bell, who has been quietly impressive in the playoffs with five top 10s in the past six races. Regular-season champion Tyler Reddick will break through to make his first Championship 4. Last, but certainly not least, Joey Logano will make the most of his second chance to continue his streak of Championship 4 appearances in even-numbered years.

Mike Neff: At least two drivers will advance with a win. Larson should win at Vegas, while Reddick will run the rim to the win at Homestead. Martinsville could be an upset winner, but Denny Hamlin will advance from there — maybe by a win, maybe not. Bell will point his way into the final four.

There have been zero back-to-back race winners in Cup in 2024. What do you take away from that?

Tanner Marlar: Not having back-to-back winners is a good thing. When a driver goes out and just dominates two races in a row, that third race can have a lot of fans entering with some preconceived notion that, “well, (insert driver name here) is just going to win it again,” and that can hurt. It shows that we’re at a pretty good spot when it comes to parity between the teams, and that can be both a good and bad thing.

Neff: It is the car. This car is simply so spec that there is no differentiation. As the sport evolved, there were always incidents where someone took a 15th-place car and brought it home fifth. At this point, there is no opportunity for someone to race to the lead on pure talent with a car that is half of a second off of the pace. Until there is a greater difference between the cars, the odds are stacked against repeat winning.

Stoddard: It tells me that NASCAR got the parity it wanted and envisioned when introducing the Next Gen car back in 2022. With perhaps the exception of a few back markers, any given team can win any given race in the Cup Series now. Very few seasons have been as wide open as this one, and I anticipate that continuing to be a pattern as long as the Next Gen car is in play.

Wyatt Watson: It’s exactly what NASCAR has been hoping for, parity week to week. This hasn’t been achieved since the 30-race 1984 season, 40 years ago. Barring if Larson continues his reign of dominance at Vegas, this indeed will be an impressive and rare feat if achieved.

With his second chance, what do you expect from Logano in the Round of 8?

Stoddard: As the old saying goes, hell hath no fury like Logano in an even-numbered year. He will either win or point his way into the Championship 4 at Phoenix. From there, all bets are off in one race to decide it all in the desert.

Glover: Giving Logano a second chance is not what the Round of 8 teams wanted to see. He called his shot in 2018 when he aggressively claimed the win at Martinsville and then called himself the favorite. Turns out, he was right, out dueling the Big 3 that year to take the title. Then, he struggled at times in 2022, yet checked off the boxes in the playoffs to reach the Championship 4. Entering that event, he still felt like a dark horse, yet he claimed the title once again.

As long as the No. 22 team is alive, you can’t count it out. However, despite this being an even-numbered year in which Logano always excels, the speed just isn’t there. That hurts even more now that the series is going to three traditional ovals. Logano has had more speed in the playoffs, but I just don’t see it being enough to turn it into another championship run. Who knows, though? We’ve been wrong before.

Watson: Although I left him out of my Championship 4 predictions, if anyone can spoil the party, it’s the No. 22 team. Logano won his way to Phoenix in 2022 at Vegas, leading to his second Cup title. It almost feels like destiny that this team will find a way to sneak into the Championship 4, but my brain tells me otherwise with how his season played out earlier.

Marlar: As far as Logano is concerned, the days of him being Ford’s debatable No. 1 guy are numbered. However, with him still being in a lightning-fast racecar, anything can happen; just look at 2022. I don’t expect Logano to make it into the final four, but if he does, he’ll certainly be a solid bet to take home another championship. Guys who have been there before just know how to do it.

What letter grade do you give Shane van Gisbergen in his rookie NASCAR Xfinity Series season?

Watson: A respectable B-. Shane van Gisbergen did what he needed to accomplish: win road course races and get experience at the ovals. However, his early exit out of the playoffs with Talladega Superspeedway and Charlotte Motor Speedway ROVAL on the schedule is a major disappointment for him and Kaulig Racing. With his expertise and ability to perform at road courses and the Chicago street course, he has earned that third seat at Trackhouse Racing in the Cup Series next year, but to truly be a championship threat in NASCAR, van Gisbergen will have to make big strides on the oval, and that will come with time.

Marlar: A solid B. He did exactly what he was supposed to do and showed incredible prowess at road courses, and he didn’t develop poorly in any sense of the word as an oval racer over the year. Sure, people will complain about his ability on superspeedways, but in a crapshoot like that, he’s just as liable to win as you or me. Van Gisbergen has earned a spot and a seat, the question now is what can he do with it next season.

Neff: Van Gisbergen deserves a B for his season. While he didn’t threaten for any oval wins, he improved as the year went, and he still had three victories for the season, which is tied for the lead in the series. An oval win would have made it an A.

Glover: Van Gisbergen’s season has been an A-. He’s reached double-digit top 10s with 10, only five shy of veteran teammate AJ Allmendinger. Five of those top 10s have come on ovals, a far cry from what he was used to. What has impressed me about van Gisbergen is the ability to adapt quickly and get better throughout a race. With limited practice time and shorter Xfinity races, he improves from start to finish in almost every race. And while he was eliminated in the first round of the playoffs, he entered the ROVAL within striking distance after two oval races, including Talladega Superspeedway. There are many areas where he can still grow for sure, but this season has been a success.

Mark Kristl

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Mark Kristl joined Frontstretch at the beginning of the 2019 NASCAR season. He is the site's ARCA Menards Series editor. Kristl is also an Eagle Scout and a proud University of Dayton alum.