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Eyes on Xfinity: The Playoff Race Is About to Get Wild

Sammy Smith‘s unexpected win at Talladega Superspeedway last Saturday (Oct. 5) did a lot for his championship effort, but my eyes are on what it did to the bottom of the playoff grid. Heading to the Charlotte ROVAL, we are about to see some craziness that could reach the level of last season’s penultimate race at Martinsville Speedway.

Smith entered Talladega last in points among the 12 playoff drivers. If that race was a must-win for anybody, it was him. With his ticket now punched to the next round, we’ve got a hornet’s nest at the bottom, especially given the site of the next race.

Sammy SmithAdvanced
Chandler Smith+64
Cole Custer+37
Austin Hill+37
Sheldon Creed+32
Jesse Love+22
Riley Herbst+20
AJ Allmendinger+7
Justin Allgaier-7
Shane van Gisbergen-10
Sam Mayer-13
Parker Kligerman-16

So what is so crazy about these standings going into the Roval?

Let’s start with the fact that arguably the weakest driver to make the playoff field has now advanced to the next round. Smith’s Talladega win was just what the doctor ordered after what has amounted to an underwhelming season up until this point.

Smith squeaked into the playoff so narrowly that his No. 8 JR Motorsports car isn’t even participating in the owners’ championship battle. Smith was the last driver to make the playoffs, but because of the tremendous success by various drivers in the No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing car, the No. 8 is not in the owner playoffs. The Talladega win will give the team a shot in the arm — they’ll need something to build off of going into next season.

See also
Xfinity Breakdown: Talladega Flips the Playoff Race Upside Down

Smith’s advancement means one less spot available in the upcoming round of eight. When I looked at the schedule back in February and saw we had the ROVAL as a cutoff race, it seemed a little out of place. Boy, was I wrong about that.

The bottom five drivers in the current playoff standings might just be the top five drivers when it comes to road-course racing. That means none of the five drivers above them are safe.

Chandler and Sammy Smith (no relation) are the lone exceptions to the spin cycle of drama these playoff drivers are about to go through. Everyone else, from our defending champion in Custer on down, is at risk with these road-course aces lurking just a few points below them.

One major sportsbook actually has van Gisbergen, Allmendinger, Allgaier and Mayer are the most likely to win at the Roval, with Kligerman in seventh behind Custer and Connor Mosack. Mosack has plenty of road course experience and will drive the JR Motorsports No. 88 entry this weekend.

What we are going to have is an absolute slugfest that will take every ounce of execution these drivers and teams can muster. Four drivers will be eliminated after the race, and with the way the points are now, it’s as difficult to predict as any playoff cutoff race in memory.

It’s become common for drivers to have to start in the rear of the field. Maybe they crashed in practice or qualifying, maybe they made unapproved adjustments or had to change an engine. Whatever the reason, it happens every week for a handful of drivers. If any of these playoff drivers, besides the Smiths, suffer that kind of setback, it could be the kiss of death.

Starting from the rear at a track like Kansas Speedway, Homestead-Miami Speedway or even Phoenix Raceway would not be the kind of challenge it will be at the ROVAL. It doesn’t matter if you’re the odds-on favorite like van Gisbergen, a very accomplished road-course racer like Allmendinger, or a rookie who has never run the ROVAL before like Love; if you have to start from the rear of the field here, you are going to have a hell of a time coming through the field if you’re also staying out for and desperately in need of stage points. And good luck doing all that without damaging your car in a significant way.

Should an early setback occur, it doesn’t mean they can’t still overcome it. But the margin for error will shrink dramatically, and risky strategy plays could be needed to make up for lost ground. The point is, tune into practice and qualifying on Saturday (Oct. 12) at 10 a.m. ET on USA. You won’t want to miss it.

Barring any major hiccups pre-race, van Gisbergen and Allmendinger have got to be the favorites to start on the front row. The rules prevent any Cup Series regulars from competing in playoff races. We won’t see the likes of Kyle Larson, Alex Bowman or Ty Gibbs — who would all likely give the Xfinity drivers a run for their money.

If van Gisbergen dominates the race, he should be able to advance, even if strategy or a late restart prevents him from winning. A high finish with a stage win or two along the way should be enough. I do expect Allmendinger to run better here than he has on the other road courses this season. In Xfinity he’s been otherworldly here. Four starts, one pole, four wins — undefeated. It doesn’t get much better than that. If he has a last hurrah in him where he can go toe-to-toe with SVG and win, this is it. So let’s consider both Kaulig drivers relatively safe to advance, along with the Smiths.

Custer and Hill should be the next safest drivers. Their combination of points cushion and road course skill should combine to put the in a favorable position. We’ve now projected six advancements for eight available positions.

See also
Justin Allgaier's Playoff Woes Continue After Late Talladega Crash

That leaves Creed, Love, Herbst, Allgaier, Mayer and Kligerman to fight it out for the last two spots.

Creed isn’t known as a road-course ace, but he’s been pretty good. He nearly won a race at Watkins Glen International last year, home to his highest average finish (4.0) at any track. Sonoma Raceway isn’t far behind (6.5), and the ROVAL comes in above the median (13.0). Despite continuing to be winless and stacking up a record-breaking amount of runner-up finishes, Creed has earned a 32-point cushion, so he’s a safe pick to make it to the next round if he can avoid a crash or mechanical issue.

How crazy is it that we’ve only got one JR Motorsports driver in our projected top seven to advance out of the first round? Take that amount of crazy and triple it. Imagine saying a month ago that Smith will be the only driver at JRM with a safe pass into the next round coming into the cutoff race. Bonkers.

Allgaier and Mayer have got to be the next most likely to make it in. It does seem unlikely that both will pull it off. Mayer did find his groove turning right last season, and won this very race a year ago. He came into that race in a win-or-go-home situation and he made it happen. That race didn’t have SVG in it, but still.

Allgaier has been good at road courses, too. He has two top fives and three top 10s in six starts at the ROVAL. He comes in with six more points than Mayer, and those points — plus the ones that Mayer lost by getting disqualified at Talladega — could prove to be critical. Mayer is moving over to Haas Factory Team next year, so if it comes down to it, you’ve got to think he wouldn’t have any qualms with pushing the issue with teammates to advance. Allgaier isn’t known to race that way, but he has to feel a sense of urgency as one of the oldest drivers in the field. Who knows when he’ll have a better chance at a championship?

So we’re left with Herbst, Love and Kligerman. The best road course driver among them is certainly Kligerman, as my colleague Michael Finley explained earlier this season in this column. But he also has the biggest hole to climb out of and may not be quite good enough to close the gap. In order to make it through, he needs to have a great day while several others falter. Having announced he won’t run full-time next year, this is likely his last chance at a NASCAR championship.

Herbst has shown some life on the road courses in recent years, and his history at the ROVAL is a good microcosm of that. He began his career there with finishes of 12th, 34th and 32nd, before bringing home a solid fourth last season. If he can repeat that result, he will probably make it through. He just needs a smooth and clean race, which sometimes seems hard to come by for the 25-year-old.

Among the playoff drivers, Love has the longest odds to win according to a major sportsbook, and I agree with their assessment. He’s a rookie who has never raced here before. His season has been impressive to be sure, with more laps led than his senior teammate, Hill. Love managed to win a race, something his predecessor (Creed) could not do during two full seasons driving the No. 2 for Richard Childress Racing. If he is able to advance, he’ll be a frisky and fun addition to the next round, but this will be a tall mountain to climb for the 19-year-old.

Notes and Nuggets:

Ryan Sieg will hand over his familiar No. 39 to his younger brother Kyle Sieg for the remainder of the season in a number swap. The RSS Racing team cited an effort to improve the points position for the No. 28 heading into next season. The move makes sense for the family-run team that continues to grow and improve.

Jeremy Clements is bringing a heck of a throwback to the Roval, which drew the attention of Dale Earnhardt Jr. on Twitter/X. If Love is a dark horse, Clements is pitch-black. His odds to win are sitting at +40000. He did win a race at Road America back in 2017, so you never know.

Clements is chipping away at the all-time Xfinity series starts lead. Nobody has more starts in the series than Kenny Wallace (547). Saturday’s race will be start no. 493 for Clements.

Steve Leffew joined Frontstretch in 2023 and covers the Xfinity Series. He has served honorably in the United States Air Force and and lives in Wisconsin.


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RCFX1

I’d love to see Creed win it without winning a race. That would blow up the whole reason for the Chase and all the kneejerk BS that Nascar does.