Road and street courses: Of course. Superspeedways? Check.
So Shane van Gisbergen has figured out how to run well at superspeedways in addition to his frequent dominance on road and street courses. So what? He can never win a championship on those disciplines alone.
Good early-season runs at Martinsville Speedway and Phoenix Raceway made the case that SVG can run well enough on the short tracks, too. He may not be at a point to win there yet, but well enough to hold serve in the points as long as he can avoid trouble on superspeedways and keep dominating at the road courses.
That leaves the intermediate tracks. Surely van Gisbergen couldn’t be a serious threat for a title, because he was way behind on those tracks that appear so often on the schedule.
Or is he?
Take a look through his results on the intermediates and you will see steady improvement. He finished third in the second race of the season at Atlanta Motor Speedway, but despite its intermediate distance, it’s really more like a superspeedway with how it’s driven.
The 35-year-old from Auckland, New Zealand never had a chance to run well at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, where an engine failure ended his day after just 27 laps completed. Texas Motor Speedway was next up, and he finished a mediocre 18th there. Given his lack of experience at such a track, it was better than mediocre, but he will be judged like the rest of the field.
He rattled off back-to back-to-back finishes of 15th at Darlington Raceway’s famed egg-shaped oval, Charlotte Motor Speedway and Nashville Superspeedway. His fourth-place result at Indianapolis Motor Speedway certainly raised some eyebrows, but it was such an anomaly at the time that it could be considered a fluke.
In his second shot at the track “Too Tough to Tame” (Darlington), he finished 7th — eight places higher than his debut there. This past weekend (Sept. 28) at Kansas Speedway, the Kiwi took another step forward with an impressive eighth in the final running order. In doing so, van Gisbergen beat several playoff drivers including Jesse Love (ninth), Riley Herbst (10th), Parker Kligerman (12th), Sam Mayer (13th), AJ Allmendinger (17th), Sammy Smith (22nd) and regular-season darling Justin Allgaier, who had a dreadful day and eventually succumbed to damage from numerous incidents, finishing 36th.
Take a moment to think about those results. Kansas is another track van Gisbergen had never raced at before. Yet there he was, beating a championship finalist from last season in Mayer, who is thought to drive superior equipment from JR Motorsports compared to what SVG drives from the Kaulig Racing stables.
Allmendinger has 17 career wins in the NASCAR Xfinity Series, six that came on ovals. We’ve accepted that SVG has taken the road course king crown from his teammate, who held it for several years, but it would be a very long time before van Gisbergen could outrun the likes of Allmendinger on an oval in equal equipment… or so we thought.
If you compare the results of Allmendinger and van Gisbergen on the mile and a half tracks, excluding Atlanta, the ‘Dinger had bested van Gisbergen in their first three attempts. At Kansas, SVG broke through and beat his teammate. But if you expand the criteria to include Darlington, Nashville and Indianapolis, it’s an even split at four and four.
Some might allege this says more about Allmendinger than van Gisbergen. I believe that would be false. Van Gisbergen has continued to improve. With three top-10s and six top-15s on these tracks, and an upward trajectory, SVG has become a legitimate threat to win the championship.
One popular sportsbook has him listed at +4000. In other words, if you bet $100 that he’ll win the championship, it would pay out $4000. If you’re a person who likes to dabble in legal sports betting, the value there is so enticing.
The schedule ahead is somewhat favorable to van Gisbergen. He now sits eight points above the cut line. Talladega Superspeedway is next up. The 2.66-mile superspeedway known for drafting and huge wrecks is a place where anything can happen, but it’s a style of track van Gisbergen has quickly become comfortable at.
Next up, the Charlotte ROVAL. Now that we’re in the playoffs, NASCAR Cup Series drivers aren’t allowed to compete in the Xfinity Series. This means SVG is going to be a strong favorite to win that race, with Allmendinger and Mayer the only other drivers that could seriously challenge. Van Gisbergen should be able to advance to the second round, barring a spree of bad luck or mechanical gremlins.
The Round of 8 is where we’ll see his improvement on the intermediates really start to bear fruit. Las Vegas Motor Speedway and Homestead-Miami Speedway are both high-banked mile-and-a-half ovals (technically Las Vegas is a tri-oval) where SVG will have his toughest NASCAR test yet.
So far, he’s been able to be there at the end of races through veteran race craft and steadiness, but he’ll need to step up his qualifying and run up front to score stage points as well. That round then goes to Martinsville Speedway, where a demolition derby is usually on the menu at the shortest track on the schedule. Van Gisbergen ran 11th at Martinsville in the spring, so based on his improvement everywhere else, I would expect a top-10 run there too.
That brings us to the championship race at Phoenix on Nov. 9. If he can just get there, I would not doubt his ability to pull off the win, +4000 odds and all. Sure, a driver like Allgaier could dominate like he did early in the spring race. But that race could also come down to carnage at the end.
Imagine seeing van Gisbergen go toe-to-toe with the likes of defending series champion Cole Custer and his own rival from early in the season, Austin Hill, and second-place sensation Sheldon Creed. On a late restart, would you bet against SVG against those guys, with his car control? I wouldn’t.
We’ve only got six races left to determine it all. Even if van Gisbergen fails to make it out of the first round, his presence on track has been so fun to watch and you have to admire the consistent improvement. He’s worthy of the promotion he’s getting next season, but let’s see if he can do something legendary while he’s in the series where names are made.
Steve Leffew joined Frontstretch in 2023 and covers the Xfinity Series. He has served honorably in the United States Air Force and and lives in Wisconsin.
Great article Steve and If SVG can do all this in his first season, I can’t wait for next year! Knowing him from V8s here in Aus he’ll not stop until he’s regularly at the pointy end. Fun times!
Whether Shane makes it to the final four really doesn’t matter. He’s had a great year learning the tracks and has continued to improve each race. I look forward to seeing him in Cup next year in a car he feels comfortable in. He has never felt at home in the Xfinity car yet has had some amazing results, a sign of a great driver that has the ability to adapt. Good luck for the rest of the play-offs.