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5 Points to Ponder: Playoff Disruption or Business as Usual?

1. It’s Parity Season Again

Ross Chastain is on the board.

In the midst of his worst season so far for Trackhouse Racing, the Melon Man found victory lane for the first time in 2024 at Kansas Speedway, his first race win since last year’s finale at Phoenix Raceway.

Chastain’s triumph gives us 17 different NASCAR Cup Series victors so far, just two short of the record of 19 (which has been set in five different seasons). With Talladega Superspeedway and the Charlotte Motor Speedway ROVAL still to come, not to mention some drivers who generally win still looking to break through in 2024, there’s a chance the record is in play.

Since 2000, there hasn’t been too much to point to in terms of trends when it comes to the number of winners in a season. There have always been at least 12 winners, and the two times this century there have been 19 winners came more than 20 years apart (2001 and 2022).

Of course there’s another good measure of parity, which is the most wins any single driver racks up in a given season. There, too, the 21st century has been pretty consistent, with the big winner always taking the checkered flag at least five times and never more than 10.

What we can say about 2024 is that it will be near the most parity-friendly extremes for both stats, as the big winner so far is Kyle Larson with just five trophies. But perhaps the most interesting way to dissect these numbers is the thought that once the Next Gen car was in place for a few seasons, the bigger, better-funded teams would find a way to bring those advantages to bear and parity would start sliding backward.

As we approach the end of year three, it sure doesn’t appear that’s the case.

See also
Thinkin’ Out Loud at Kansas: There Are No Championship Favorites

2. Are Non-Playoff Drivers Winning Really a Big Deal?

One other theme that popped up in the wake of Chastain’s victory is the idea that he has “disrupted” the playoffs. There are lots of “gee whiz” discussions about drivers no longer alive for the championship shaking things up, and to be fair, there are some definite effects on those still seeking the title as they miss out on locking themselves into the next round.

It’s also unquestionably good for the sport for drivers no longer in contention to grab some victories, since, you know, they are still running and have fans too.

But should we be acting like it’s some kind of huge deal every time it happens? Maybe if it was rare, but recent history shows it really isn’t.

It was just two seasons ago when every race in the first round of the playoffs was won by a non-playoff driver:

It happened last year when AJ Allmendinger found his way to victory lane at Charlotte during the Round of 12, and in 2021 when Wallace snagged the Talladega win.

All of which to say is that non-playoff drivers winning is cool, but the drivers still going for the title have been dealing with it for a while. It’s just something that comes with the format, and we don’t need to be all breathless about it when it inevitably happens.

3. Can the No. 11 Team Shake Its Way Out of Its Funk?

It was interesting to hear Denny Hamlin admit after Kansas that he was “not in mentally,” and while he later clarified on his Actions Detrimental podcast that it was just for the race and not the whole postseason, it was still a pretty startling admission, even for someone with as many irons in the fire as he has.

The more troubling thing for Hamlin was that his pit crew also didn’t exactly look locked in. Twice this past weekend, there were issues getting a wheel tight, and the No. 11 team had another slow stop late in the race as well.

There’s no reason for panic, as Hamlin and his crew have been pretty consistent all season long. He’s led more laps than anyone than Larson, which is in and of itself a pretty good indicator that the team has been on its game more often than not in an era where track position is often king.

But this is crunch time now, and if this was more than just a one-off bad day, it could easily spell doom for Hamlin’s championship hopes — which certainly wouldn’t be the first time.

4. Full Speed Ahead

A racing column isn’t the place to delve into the economic reasons why streaming services sometimes cancel shows before their time, but suffice it to say that it happens on a regular basis. So it was pleasantly surprising to see that the NASCAR series Full Speed was getting a second season on Netflix, premiering sometime in 2025.

The first season of Full Speed didn’t seem to have the same cultural impact as Formula 1: Drive to Survive, which at least anecdotally appeared to create new F1 fans when it debuted in 2019 (and is still going, which is impressive). It was, however, a fun look into the routines and team dynamics for a variety of drivers. One would think that with a season under their belt, the producers should be able to keep that going for as long as Netflix keeps ordering more episodes.

5. It’s Good to See the Sport Doing Good

Sports are often an escape for fans, but it’s still nice to think that the pastimes we enjoy also contribute to the greater good. NASCAR and the people who participate in racing have done that repeatedly over the years, and that positive trend continued this week on several fronts.

The devastation brought on by Hurricane Helene was felt especially keenly in NASCAR’s traditional heartland of the Southeast, so it was only right that drivers and teams rallied together to help however they could. Hendrick Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing were among those utilizing their resources to aid those affected by the storm.

And Jimmie Johnson made an appearance on The TODAY Show this week to promote his efforts with the Miami Project to Cure Paralysis. As the name suggests, the organization is devoted to clinical trials and research studies intended to find a definitive cure for paralysis.

These are causes anyone can get behind. It’s fine to appreciate sports simply for what they are, but it feels even better to know they can help out as well.

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4 Comments
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TiminPayson

Please publish a list of NC relief agencies other than the Red Cross.
I want my money to go to the victims not executive salaries

janice

greg biffle has been flying relief flights in north carolina. he’s pull together a group of fellow aviators who have been doing supply drops since the skies cleared.

Marshall

“Playoff spoiler” means “driver and team we thought we didn’t need to pay attention to anymore.”

RCFX1

With Denny, he’s so busy trying to tell everyone in the garage how they should race and what Nascar should do. He also is facing the loss of FedEx altogether and has 23XI signed their Charter agreement yet? He needs to focus on job 1.