(Author’s note: Shane van Gisbergen will not be included in this edition of The Underdog House with respect to his road-course racing success both in NASCAR recently and in his background.)
Top Dog: Carson Hocevar
What makes NASCAR’s playoffs unique?
Aside from the structure of it, and the fact that we are discussing motorsports, it contrasts other mainstream American sports by including non-playoff drivers in the 10-race postseason.
Typically, while the non-playoff teams do anything but go into hiding, the cream of the crop consistently rises to the top.
But there’s a first for everything, and playoff history was written in the Go Bowling at The Glen at Watkins Glen International in the second race of the 2024 playoffs.
Only two championship-eligible drivers placed inside the top 10, and all 16 playoff drivers were shut out of the top five, the first time that has occurred since the current format was implemented in 2014.
Leading the charge was rookie Carson Hocevar, who earned a career-best finish in third.
Despite qualifying 29th, Hocevar displayed an impressive feat by working his way through the field over the course of the race, an overall struggle for drivers who were mired back in traffic. The No. 77 team played the strategy card of pitting before both stage ends to trade it for track position. That, along with good pace, allowed the 21-year-old to carve his way forward and into the top 10.
In the final stage, there was a growing possibility that Hocevar could score his first top five. However, after pitting for the final time on lap 60 and cycling ahead of competitors around him, Hocevar found himself in the mix for the win if the scenario played out correctly.
A lap 80 caution set Hocevar up to challenge for the victory, as he was running in third. On the restart, Hocevar chose the top and pushed race leader Chris Buescher before settling into second. Yet there ended up being not one restart but three attempts for the rookie to play spoiler. On all three attempts, the Spire Motorsports driver gave Buescher and Shane van Gisbergen a run for their money, but ultimately wound up third.
With his first Cup top five under his belt and a chance at the checkered flag based on race pace, has Hocevar arrived? There has been no denying the talent he possesses, but his aggression and reaction to contact from other drivers has drawn criticism.
All of that has slowly given way to the maturation of the Portage, Mich. native, who does not need to change his aggressive nature aside from short-tempered moments. That begs the question: Is Hocevar the best rookie we’ve seen in a while?
I’m not talking about statistics or what the ceiling is for his potential. Instead, let’s dive deeper and examine what he is accomplishing before our eyes.
Aside from drivers like Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, Ryan Blaney and William Byron, the rookie classes of the late 2000s and most of the 2010s decades were rather disappointing. Then, the 2020 class of Christopher Bell, Tyler Reddick and Cole Custer came along, a trio of drivers who consistently put on a show in the NASCAR Xfinity Series.
But even with the talent of that class and seeing where they all are now in their respective careers, Hocevar is unique. Reddick and Bell are now title contenders, but both had an equipment advantage over what Hocevar has.
It wasn’t that long ago that Spire was struggling to even crack the top 25. Even last season, the No. 77 had no top 10s with Ty Dillon, and Corey LaJoie had three, albeit all on superspeedways.
Spire is still working its way up the ladder, but Hocevar has taken the team to a new level in 2024. Hocevar holds the most single-season top 10s by a Spire driver with five, and in the last 14 races, he has 12 finishes of 17th or better.
The 2020 freshman class was one of the best we had in years, and Ty Gibbs, the 2023 Rookie of the Year, is a generational talent. When you take a step back and set the expectations given each driver’s situation, however, Hocevar should be near the top of rookies who have achieved success in the past decade.
Notable Underdog Runs
Not only did Hocevar pace the underdog effort, but he led a historic day for Spire in general. All three drivers finished eighth or better, with Zane Smith finishing fifth and LaJoie closing the deal in eighth. It’s the first time Spire has landed multiple drivers inside the top five and all three in the top 10.
Smith, who has yet to announce his 2025 plans, surely helped his cause by securing his third top 15 in the last five weeks, including his second top 10 in that span. A sneaky good road racer in his own right, Smith ran inside the top 10 for much of the race, cracking the top five at one point in stage two. After sitting on the border of the top 10 when the influx of late-race cautions came in, Smith worked his way through traffic to grab his second career top five.
LaJoie’s day immediately started out on an interesting note when the veteran driver got into Kyle Busch in the Bus Stop, triggering a multi-car crash that involved playoff drivers such as Denny Hamlin, Blaney and Bell. LaJoie shook it off quickly and went to work.
The result? The Charlotte, N.C. native turned in his best road course performance, earning his first top 10 on the twists and turns and running in the front part of the field most of the race. LaJoie worked his way into the top five in the final stage, and when the leaders pitted during green flag stops, it set him up to lead two laps before making his final stop of the race.
From there, he held serve and withstood the chaotic nature of the restarts to clinch his third top 10 of the season. That matches his career high from a year ago, important to his cause of finding a ride for next season as well.
The Glen was the Spire show, with Todd Gilliland finishing as the only other underdog inside the top 20. With a special person in his corner, Gilliland turned in a solid day at the office with a 16th-place showing in his 100th career Cup start.
Gilliland’s race was challenging at several points due to tight handling conditions on the short run and being mired mid-pack, somewhere drivers did not want to be on restarts. That was nearly Gilliland’s downfall on lap 88, when Larson threw a late block on the No. 38, sending Gilliland into Elliott and sparking a pileup. However, the 24-year-old escaped through the mess and capped his day off with his 16th top 20 of the year.
While no underdog in his prime, former Watkins Glen winner Juan Pablo Montoya returned to the track for the first time in a decade, piloting 23XI Racing’s No. 50 entry. Despite finishing 32nd, the 48-year-old didn’t look like a fish out of water. Montoya ran inside the top 10 for a period during the event, displaying his road racing prowess before ultimately finishing 32nd.
Playoff Underdog Update
As a result of several playoff drivers suffering issues from start to finish, it looked as though Harrison Burton may have had a shot to point his way into the Round of 12 after a disappointing playoff opener at Atlanta Motor Speedway. The Wood Brothers Racing driver was able to keep pace with other title contenders, and he stayed out at the end of stage two to earn five important stage points.
Unfortunately, Burton suffered a flat tire before he got to the Bus Stop with 11 laps remaining, limping his way around the track before losing the carcass to bring out a caution.
He finished 24th, and while he has a mathematical chance to advance by sitting 20 points below the cut line, Bristol will be an uphill battle. Time is running out to keep the Cinderella storybook open.
What They’re Saying
Hocevar (third) and Smith (fifth):
Montoya (32nd):
Who’s Really the Top Dog?
For the first time all season, a single organization swept the podium as a result of Spire’s breakthrough at The Glen. And to add the cherry on top, Hocevar overtakes the top spot for the most gold medals of the underdog field.
Gold: Hocevar (5x) Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (4x), Erik Jones (4x), John Hunter Nemechek (2x), AJ Allmendinger (2x), Gilliland (2x), Smith (2x), LaJoie (2x), Daniel Hemric (2x), Justin Haley, Joey Hand, Burton
Silver: Gilliland (8x), Haley (3x), Allmendinger (2x), Hemric (2x), Nemechek (2x), Stenhouse Jr. (2x), Hocevar (2x), Smith (2x), Burton, Dillon, Anthony Alfredo, LaJoie, Cody Ware
Bronze: Stenhouse (5x), LaJoie (4x), Nemechek (3x), Gilliland (3x), Hocevar (3x), Jones (2x), Kaz Grala, van Gisbergen, Haley, Allmendinger, Hemric, Smith, Burton, Parker Retzlaff
Small Team Scheme of the Week
Spire teamed up with Mattress Warehouse to have the company featured on Hocevar’s car this week while LaJoie will carry the colors at Bristol Motor Speedway. Personally, red and white always looks good on a race car, and Hocevar should sleep well after landing his career-best finish.
Entering his fifth year with Frontstretch, Luken Glover is the author of The Underdog House, shedding light on the motivation and performance of NASCAR's dark horse teams as they strive to fight to the top. Additionally, Glover reports for the site at various events, and he contributes in the video editing department.
A 2023 graduate of the University of the Cumberlands, Glover is a middle school math and PE teacher, as well as a basketball coach. He is passionate about serving in his church, playing/coaching a wide variety of sports, and researching motorsports history.