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2024 IndyCar Big Machine Music City Grand Prix Preview

The 2024 NTT IndyCar Series journey is nearing its end, and all eyes are on Nashville Superspeedway this Sunday (Sept. 15) for the Big Machine Music City Grand Prix championship finale. Two-time champions Alex Palou and Will Power are set to battle on the 1.33-mile banked oval in a showdown to see who will take their third Astor Cup trophy.

While other storylines swirl around this historic return to the Nashville oval for the first time since 2008, the spotlight firmly belongs to Palou, who leads the championship, and Power, who has been chasing the Spaniard over the last few months. Power is looking to achieve a Herculean effort that could etch his name in Australian folklore as he attempts to snatch the title from the seemingly unstoppable Palou.

The 2024 season began back in March at St. Petersburg, a race mired in controversy involving Power’s Team Penske. Now, months later, redemption is on the table for the squad if luck aligns and he pulls off the upset.

Beyond the title battle, this race holds special significance for other drivers as well. Some will be making their final appearances with their current teams, hoping to secure one last victory or at least a good run to end the year. With the 3-month offseason looming large, drivers and teams alike are eager to figure out what’s missing and avoid a painful hiatus before engines roar to life next year at St. Pete.

New Track, New Finale

Since 2021 IndyCar had raced through the streets of Nashville and many expected that to continue when the event was moved to the season finale. However, construction at the Tennessee Titans’ stadium and miscommunication over approvals for downtown streets led to a change in venue. While it’s unclear if this will be a short-term shift beyond 2025, IndyCar fans are the real winners, as the championship will now be decided on an oval – a rarity since 2014.

Oval races have been a fan favorite for championship showdowns, offering more dynamic racing than street courses. However, the Nashville oval’s return after 16 years raises an important question: how will the race unfold? The series hasn’t been to the track since 2008 and back then it was known for having a narrow groove. But there’s hope.

Last year, at Texas Motor Speedway, the series proved that a narrow groove could still deliver thrilling racing, thanks to a high-line practice session that widened the racing line in conjunction with the PJ1 surface compound receding. The use of a high-line-dedicated practice has helped rubber in outside lines at Worldwide Technology Raceway and Milwaukee. If Nashville’s practice is successful, the race could resemble the exciting action seen at Texas, with more room for overtaking.

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Power’s Last Stand

There has been a lot of talk around points, gaps, and calculations for Power’s title hopes. But let’s simplify it: Power needs to either win or finish second, or his championship fight is over. There is a third option as well, finishing third, but he’d have to earn the pole and lead the most laps to make it work. Even if he manages one of those three positions, he still needs a lot of luck on his side. But without them, it’s done. Those finishes will only give him the points to overcome Palou if the Spaniard has the worst day of his career and finishes between 25th and 27th. Anything less means Power’s title chances evaporate.

Palou, on the other hand, can likely seal the deal by doing what he has done all year, hang in the race until the end. But make no mistake, if Power doesn’t finish first or second (and yes, third), there won’t be a championship fight to watch.

The Option Tire & Concrete Surface

Adding another layer of intrigue to this weekend’s race is the mandatory use of the oval option tire, last seen at Gateway in 2023. These two types of different tires, typically used on street and road courses, will be required for two stints during the race on Sunday, creating a unique challenge for teams. This, combined with the fact that Nashville’s track is made of concrete, an unusual surface for IndyCar, means teams will have plenty to figure out during the race.

Concrete tracks like Dover and Bristol Motor Speedway have not been on the IndyCar schedule – well Dover made a short foray in the 1990s – making this even more challenging as tire grip will be a factor. Between the track’s unique surface and the high-stakes tire strategy, there’s more to watch than just the championship battle. 

Season of Disappointment

For Nashville resident Josef Newgarden, the 2024 season began with high hopes. He was ready to reclaim victory lane at road and street courses and become a consistent championship contender again. In the opening race at St. Petersburg, it seemed like he was on track to do just that. 

But things took a dramatic turn. In his eight years with Team Penske, 2024 has been his most challenging season in the No. 2 Chevrolet. With inconsistent results, Newgarden is likely to finish in an unfamiliar spot: last among the Penske drivers in the championship standings. Heading into the weekend he is in eighth, which if that holds would be the lowest he’s placed since his third year in the series in 2014.

The silver lining is that Newgarden, known as an “oval master,” has a chance to end the season on a high note. Having already won at Indianapolis and Worldwide Technology Raceway, Newgarden has to be thrilled to be racing on an oval at Nashville. While 2024 won’t go down as his best season, a win in front of his hometown crowd would be a bright spot, and he might put that trophy up next to his two Baby Borgs on his shelf at home.

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Uncertain Future

Alexander Rossi will also be in the spotlight this weekend as he races for the final time with Arrow McLaren Racing. If he doesn’t take home the checkered flag on Sunday, Rossi will finish his tenure at the team without a victory. His departure was surprising given his performances, but more shocking is that he hasn’t announced his next move yet.

Seats at top-tier teams like Chip Ganassi Racing, Team Penske, and Andretti Global are already locked down for 2025. Ganassi is even expected to shrink from five cars to three. Rossi might have to consider driving for a team outside the front-runners for the first time in his career. While there are still quality seats available, Rossi will need to choose carefully as the competition for those few remaining spots will be fierce. Even with PREMA Racing joining the field next year, there are simply more drivers than seats, especially with IndyCar looking to cap grids at 27 cars next year.

A Final Wrinkle

The final layer of intrigue will be the overcast clouds and rain hanging over the speedway. The forecast doesn’t look promising for Saturday and Sunday’s outlook is uncertain as well. Rain could throw a hybrid battery failure into the entire weekend’s schedule. With the championship on the line and the importance of the event being on an oval, IndyCar must ensure the track is in optimal condition for racing.

If Saturday’s activity is washed out, could IndyCar extend practice times or adjust the Sunday schedule to guarantee the track is properly rubbered in before the green flag drops? While that’s not expected, it’s possible the series will take extra steps to ensure the race is as competitive as possible, given the stakes.

Further, if there is no qualifying then championship leader Palou will lead the field to green, with Power right next to him.

Rest of the Field

Kyle Kirkwood is on the verge of snapping his streak of seasons with a win at… one. After notching two wins last year in his first foray with Andretti, he is winless this year. However, that isn’t a knock on what has been a consistent season.

Ed Carpenter Racing driver Rinus VeeKay has notched a good finish to the season with five top 10s over the last seven races. He needed that as his situation for 2025 is still far from set in stone.

Frontstretch Predictions

It’s the last race of the season and nobody knows what will happen. IndyCar hasn’t been at this track since 2008, and there is rain in the forecast. Is there a casino near Nashville? There should be with all the gambling that might happen this weekend on pit road.

Saying that, I’m leaning towards Newgarden winning this one, which will be a fun end to the season as he takes point at his hometown. But the bigger story is that Palou wins the title. He’s just too darn good to overcome right now.

  1. Newgarden – Oval Master and he has to be pissed about how Milwaukee turned out.
  2. Power – Does what he needs to do, finish second. But Palou finishes in top 10 and cashes in.
  3. Kirkwood – defending winner of this race – but that was on the street circuit. Grabs his best oval result.

Championship: Palou takes it over Power, a third title in four years.

IndyCar’s 2024 season concludes this Sunday (Sept. 15) at Nashville Superspeedway for the Big Machine Music City Grand Prix. Coverage will begin at 3 p.m. ET on NBC and Peacock.

About the author

Tom Blackburn

Tom is an IndyCar writer at Frontstretch, joining in March 2023. Besides writing the IndyCar Previews and the occasional Inside Indycar, he will hop on as a fill-in guest on the Open Wheel podcast The Pit Straight. His full-time job is with the Department of Veterans Affairs History Office and is a lieutenant colonel in the Army National Guard. After graduating from Purdue University with a Creative Writing degree, he was commissioned in the Army and served a 15-month deployment as a tank platoon leader with the 3d ACR in Mosul, Iraq. A native Hoosier, he calls Fort Wayne home. Follow Tom on Twitter @TomBlackburn42.

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