Alternate tires with reportedly a lot of tire wear might throw a wrench in a relatively cut-and-dry NASCAR Cup Series race at Watkins Glen International. Could this be a potential fix as they were at Richmond Raceway?
James Krause: It’ll make the on-track racing a little better, but it’s going to also mix up pit strategy. How long are teams willing to go on a single set of tires? The one thing that could be a problem is an increase in on-track incidents from more aggressive racing or stretching a tire run too long. This also could create even more parity on road courses, as drivers who may not be ringers have a chance to get an edge if they know how to manage a run.
Kevin Nix: Tire conservation will be essential. Adding onto this are the rumble strips that the track placed down in turn 1 and the inner loop, meaning that drivers on older tires can no longer use the extra track to save their car. Those who make their tires last longer can, in theory, benefit more the longer the run goes, which will also increase passing. However, the difference between the two tire compounds needs to be large enough in traffic to promote alternate strategies, as was the case at Richmond.
Mark Kristl: Road course racing is very technical, so it’s doubtful whether option tires will be the savior to the quality of Next Gen racing on those tracks. That said, with the expected tire falloff, it should force drivers to really wheel their racecars, allowing for some hopefully incredible driving combined with some slip-ups. Depending on the outcome, NASCAR ought to consider option tires at the Charlotte Motor Speedway ROVAL, too.
Mike Neff: Tires don’t really fix anything, but they do potentially add some strategy to the race. Since they added stage breaks back to road course racing, the strategy has been almost nonexistent. Let’s hope that this tire falloff will result in some crew chief decisions actually making a difference.Â
What are your expectations for Juan Pablo Montoya’s return to Cup?
Nix: I’m bullish on Juan Pablo Montoya. The road courses were his bread and butter when he raced Cup full time, and these cars handle similarly to IMSA vehicles. He won an IMSA race in 2022 and scored two podiums in his limited starts, so it’s fair to say he can adjust quickly to the Next Gen. A win would be a remarkable upset, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him score stage points and a top 10 on pace.
Neff: The expectations aren’t much. Road course ringers aren’t capable of coming in and making a big splash in the modern Cup Series. Back when there were three or four drivers who could win, they could shake things up. Now that half of the field can potentially win, they simply can’t make a difference. He’ll probably finish between 12th and 20th.
Krause: Montoya has a chance to do very well. The only thing he’ll be up against in terms of issues is figuring out this generation of Cup car. He was great at the Glen during his career and he’s running in a car from arguably a top-three team in the series this season. It’d be the story of the year if he came out of semi-retirement to win a third Cup race, but a reasonable benchmark to place for him feels like the top 15.
Only once this Cup season has the pole winner also won the race. Does winning the pole matter anymore?
Neff: Winning a pole is still a big deal. It sets a team up with positive momentum going into a weekend. First pit stall still makes a difference. The parity in the series makes it less important, but it absolutely matters.
Krause: Yes, but it doesn’t mean as much as it used to. Being the polesitter still gives you a strong advantage as the initial leader and the first pit box on pit road. However, the elimination of practice sessions means race day is when teams make their adjustments and the best cars of the weekend ultimately start to reveal themselves. On top of that, the Busch Light Clash eliminating the award for polesitters and making it an open event takes away some of the luster from winning the pole.
Nix: Not really, for two major reasons. First, the field is closer together on pace than it’s ever been. A couple of small adjustments for an eighth-place car, for example, can make it a race-winning car if the driver finds a couple of tenths. The margin for error is small, and it’s easier than ever to have a costly pit stop, which could lose several positions under caution. Second, the races tend to be crapshoots more often than not, especially at the finish. The number of overtimes this year has certainly influenced this stat. That said, it would mean more to the field if NASCAR awarded points for winning the pole and not have the lone advantage be starting first and having first choice of pit stall.
Will Hendrick Motorsports continue its monopoly at Watkins Glen (five straight wins dating to 2018) or will another team break through?
Krause: The Hendrick winning streak will continue. Chase Elliott has a pair of wins there, then Kyle Larson scored two of his own. William Byron won at Watkins Glen last year and has since added a victory at Circuit of the Americas. Alex Bowman doesn’t have nearly as strong results as the others in New York, but his skills on road courses were cemented with a win at the Chicago street course this year. If anyone is knocking off HMS, it’s likely coming from the Toyota stable. My pick for that group would be Christopher Bell.
Nix: Yes. The Hendrick drivers are on top until someone knocks them down, and they’ve had a stranglehold on the track ever since Elliott’s first win. It is impossible to count them out under any circumstances, and Byron in particular always seems to get better as the race goes on. It takes a team effort to topple a monopoly, and until Tyler Reddick, Shane van Gisbergen, etc., drive themselves to the front on pace, Hendrick is sitting pretty.
Neff: The way the organization has been running of late, it would seem like that streak will come to an end. HMS has been a little off lately, and the Glen favors drivers who are good, late brakers. Van Gisbergen will most likely run well, and don’t count out Joey Logano. Logano has won there previously and is coming in with a bunch of momentum.
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All the teams can save them to put on for the expected GWCs.