Did You Notice?: NASCAR & Manufacturers Choosing Power Over Parity

Did You Notice? … That if the Round of 16 in the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs ended now, 10 of the 12 remaining spots would be filled by Team Penske, Hendrick Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing?

Of course, there are two races left, and anything can change. But these are the unquestioned leaders atop the food chain at Ford, Chevrolet and Toyota, respectively — the three manufacturers whose presence keeps NASCAR afloat. In the last nine years, they’ve combined to win eight titles, and their 666 all-time wins combined make them the most successful trio in the sport’s history.

It’s a consolidation of power at the top that’s been difficult to challenge. The only outlier, Furniture Row Racing, no longer exists. Its sponsorship for what was a two-car team dried up within 12 months of Martin Truex Jr. reaching the top in 2017.

Cup Championships Won Since 2015

Two years ago, when the Next Gen car debuted in Cup, it seemed unlikely this run of dominance would continue. A car designed for parity within the garage delivered in the form of 19 different winners, the most in any season since 2001. A driver from one of these Big Three teams missed the playoffs (Truex) and the Championship 4 delivered an underdog contender: Ross Chastain from Trackhouse Racing.

Further down the list, small successes from mid-tier organizations seemed to indicate a power shift was coming. Erik Jones won for Richard Petty‘s team in the Southern 500. AJ Allmendinger won at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course Kaulig Racing in its first full-time season of Cup competition.

Chase Briscoe won his first race for Stewart-Haas Racing. Bubba Wallace and Kurt Busch won for 23XI Racing. RFK Racing made the playoffs with Brad Keselowski and built momentum, culminating in a three-win season and Round of 8 appearance for Chris Buescher the following year.

Not surprisingly, NASCAR ratings went up and a whole crop of new fans came to the table. The playoffs were a bit underwhelming in terms of viewership, but overall, the Cup Series made gains in popularity against increasing competition and a decade of declines. We’ve seen that upswing continue ever since, with the sport stabilizing its fan base or increasing it, at least on television.

But the wave of parity that swept over the sport is in peril.

So far this year, the Big Three of Penske, Hendrick and Gibbs have won 20 of 27 races this season. That’s four more than 2022 at this stage (a year in which only one driver, Chase Elliott, had won more than twice by this point). It’s also a 25% increase from 2023, a season in which Shane van Gisbergen won the Chicago Street Race in his Cup debut.

This year? SVG hasn’t cracked the top 10 in any Cup race. Kaulig is nowhere near the playoffs, and several of the middle and smaller teams that have broken through in the Next Gen era (JTG Daugherty Racing, Richard Childress Racing) got locked out. We still did have a major upset at Daytona International Speedway in August: Harrison Burton breaking through for the legendary one-car Wood Brothers Racing operation despite being last in points among full-time drivers for much of the year.

But those successes in this car have been fewer and farther between as time goes by. Chastain has taken a step back with Trackhouse; he’s winless this year and failed to make the playoffs. The same goes with Buescher and RFK, which was held out of victory lane everywhere except Darlington Raceway with Keselowski. SHR, once in the best position to challenge these Big Three teams, will cease operations at the end of 2024 and return as a shell of its former self: a one-car, Gene Haas-ran operation for Cole Custer.

Once SHR shuts down, that means you need to go back 20 years to find the last active team not named Penske, Hendrick, or Gibbs to win a Cup championship. That would be the old iteration of RFK, Roush Racing, who took the first version of a playoff format with Kurt Busch in 2004.

23XI is in the best position of the second tier to break that stranglehold. Tyler Reddick won the regular season championship, the first in the team’s history, and the team can consolidate resources with the team’s other car, driven by Wallace, missing the playoffs.

That’s where the supposed new charter deal steps in.

After months of being the biggest mouthpiece for change, Denny Hamlin and Michael Jordan discovered over the weekend that a reported 30 of 36 charters have signed a new agreement with NASCAR beginning in 2025. According to FOX Sports’ Bob Pockrass, 23XI and Front Row Motorsports (each of whom may have three charters next year) became the only holdouts when teams were told Friday night (Sept. 6) they needed to sign a new deal or risk losing their guaranteed spots on the grid for 2025.

That’s led to controversy, criticism by 23XI and a massive off-track distraction. 23XI representative Curtis Polk went so far to say the situation was like “David facing Goliath.“

That’s because it is.

When you break down those 30 charters, 11 of them are owned by those three teams mentioned above: Penske, Hendrick and Gibbs. They benefit the most under the current system, have sustained success and are best positioned to absorb any financial windfall (or losses). What is in it for them to fight with NASCAR over any potential changes? As we’ve seen in the past, any type of move to split a series leaves no winners for anyone involved. Just ask IndyCar.

So some of the things others were fighting for, like a grandfathered limit of three charters per organization (allowing for more owners and greater parity) are out. The charters will not be permanent beyond 2031, and the new deal falls far short of the financials the teams were looking for.

NASCAR, with one stroke, said the last few years playing around with the Race Team Alliance were fun, but when push came to shove, it’s the one in charge. Either sign or get out.

The three organizations with the most power said sure, this has been fun, and the short-term trends show we’ll continue to stay on top. To be fair, there are 19 other charters involved here: smaller owners may have taken a look and said, well, there’s no way we have a seat at the table going against the major powerhouses backing this deal. So they panicked.

23XI and Front Row? Two teams who have improved and positioned themselves to challenge the power structure in the medium-term?

They’re left holding the bag.

Who knows what happens now, although it feels unlikely 23XI will pull out of NASCAR altogether. But who knows? Michael Jordan is the most competitive athlete this planet has ever seen, and the series just sent a clear message its in charge. Penske, Hendrick and Gibbs said sure, and there’s really not anything Jordan can do about it other than take NASCAR to court and hope for the best.

A true consolidation of power feels underway. Jim France, who turns 80 years old in October, has shepherded a deal signed off on by its three biggest team owners: 83-year-old Joe Gibbs, 87-year-old Roger Penske and 75-year-old Rick Hendrick. NASCAR feels more in control and led by a more-limited number of voices than at anytime in the past decade.

That trend matches perfectly with what’s happening on the racetrack. Was it the right move or the wrong one? What’s the plan for the next generation and the next decade of NASCAR competition with these trends shifting back to a handful of teams at the top? Will another fourth manufacturer dare enter a world in which it could take a decade or more to gain a foothold against this power structure?

Maybe this quartet, and those around them, have the right answers. NASCAR President Steve Phelps in particular deserves a lot of credit; the series, until this moment, has felt more open and groupthink oriented than anytime in its history. All three teams mentioned above were a part of the sport’s explosive growth in the 1990s and 2000s. It’s not like they weren’t involved in that formula.

But NASCAR’s also made a clear statement this week it’s back in charge. And it’s come after a past few months where cracks have formed in a foundation that’s taken years to rebuild.

You know what they say about climbing back up a mountain? It’s so hard to take those steps forward and so easy to slip.

May someone catch all parties involved before they lose their footing.

Did You Notice? … Quick hits before taking off …

• After Sunday’s (Sept. 8) race at Atlanta, Ty Gibbs has now led over 500 laps in the Cup Series without a win. At 78 starts in, his first playoff appearance was a big step, but it’s becoming increasingly noticeable he hasn’t been able to get over the hump.
• The biggest threat to the Big Three’s power mentioned above may have ended up being Kyle Busch. He now has four straight top-10 finishes despite missing the postseason, his best stretch with RCR since last summer.
• The real wild cards this weekend? Allmendinger, Gisbergen and Juan Pablo Montoya, making his return to Cup for the first time since 2014. Any of them can play spoiler in a race where track position is key.

Follow Tom Bowles on X at @NASCARBowles

Tom Bowles

Majority Owner and Editor in Chief at Frontstretch

The author of Did You Notice? (Wednesdays) Tom spends his time overseeing Frontstretch’s 40+ staff members as its majority owner and Editor-in-Chief. Based outside Philadelphia, Bowles is a two-time Emmy winner in NASCAR television and has worked in racing production with FOX, TNT, and ESPN while appearing on-air for SIRIUS XM Radio and FOX Sports 1's former show, the Crowd Goes Wild. He most recently consulted with SRX Racing, helping manage cutting-edge technology and graphics that appeared on their CBS broadcasts during 2021 and 2022.

You can find Tom’s writing here, at CBSSports.com and Athlonsports.com, where he’s been an editorial consultant for the annual racing magazine for 15 years.