(H/t to The Bard of Avon, the main man Willie Shakes.)
1. Harrison Burton is the Most Unlikely Playoff Qualifier Ever
It’s hard to overstate how unlikely it is that Harrison Burton is going to be racing for the championship in a few weeks. Yes, Daytona always looms as a place where Cinderella stories can come true, but there was absolutely no reason to think that the driver of the No. 21 was going to end up in victory lane.
Burton had never won a Cup Series race heading into Daytona, with his drought nearing 100 starts. He had already been told he was surplus to requirements for Wood Brothers Racing, so he had to be feeling some pressure about where he’d be plying his trade in 2025.
Beyond that, Burton entered the Coke Zero Sugar 400 last in points among all the drivers who had started every Cup Series event this year, so far behind points leader Tyler Reddick that it was hard to believe the deficit wasn’t a typo.
All of this suggests that Burton isn’t likely to do much once the postseason begins. There is a superspeedway race in the playoffs at Talladega Superspeedway, but he’d have to somehow make it out of the first round to get there, so … yeah.
But regardless of what happens next, Burton has made history as the least likely driver to ever win his way into the NASCAR playoffs, a distinction that will be difficult for anyone to take from him any time soon.
2. Thinking About This Sporting Event Will Help You Make More Sense of the NASCAR Playoffs
Of course before the confetti even had time to fully settle on Burton’s No. 21 Wood Brothers Racing Ford, fans and observers came out of the woodwork to denigrate the NASCAR playoff system. It’s a little funny because hardly anyone seems to enjoy said system anyway, but when something like this happens, all of a sudden things like the ‘integrity’ of it are held up like they are somehow sacred.
There are two reasons why this debate, while entertaining, is kind of silly. The first is pretty simple: The NASCAR playoffs aren’t really like most pro sports playoffs in the first place.
The so-called stick and ball sports reward regular season consistency, then do a head-to-head battle over rounds to see who eventually ends up the champion. The major North American pro sports have gradually been devaluing the regular season for years now by adding more teams to the playoff, ironically making their formats a little more like NASCAR.
Still, there’s nothing you can do in the NFL, for instance, that gets you an automatic playoff berth. But there is one sport where you can: the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, popularly known as March Madness.
How so? Because when the field of 68 men’s basketball teams is chosen, it includes a number of automatic qualifiers. These are teams that win their conference tournaments and get a guaranteed spot in the field.
Every now and then, a team that is horrible in the regular season will go on a crazy run through their conference tourney and win it all. For example, in 2023, Texas Southern went 14-20 but won their way in by claiming the SWAC tournament crown. And in three consecutive years in the mid-’90s, teams made it to March Madness despite having 11-18 records.
Even people who don’t follow college hoops know those are very bad records, and certainly not the resumes of teams who should be playing for championships. Yet no one really cares, and those plucky underdog squads are generally celebrated by fans once the NCAA tournament begins.
You see where this is going. Burton is Texas Southern. The drivers who make it in on points are like the bubble teams from the big conferences. The NASCAR Playoffs as a whole are … um, Fall Madness? Except in racing, we spend a lot of time and headspace wondering if this should be happening instead of just enjoying the ride.
3. No, There’s No Reason to Reinstitute the Top 30 Rule
The second part of the hand-wringing over Burton’s unlikely postseason berth is even harder to understand. NASCAR used to have a rule that to ensure a spot in the playoffs, drivers had to win a race and be in the top 30 in points when the regular season ends. That would rule Burton out, because even after his Daytona triumph, he sits 34th in points.
Some people would have you believe that rule should be brought back as if it would restore a feeling of justness to the field of 16, but there’s one word for that: preposterous.
The driver currently in 30th place is Justin Haley. He is 467 points behind the points leader, has only two top-10 results this year (the same number as Burton) and has led only 25 laps. If you can honestly look someone in the eye and argue that just because he is 30th and not 34th, Haley winning at Daytona would make the playoff field more legitimate than it is with Burton in it, then congrats because you are committed to the bit.
The hard truth is that the top 30 rule was always completely arbitrary and a bit of a relic of the time when fields were bigger. There aren’t 30 teams capable of winning a race, or even 25. The numbers bear that out: There have never even been 20 different race winners in a single Cup season.
If NASCAR is going to have a win secure a playoff spot, there shouldn’t be any strings attached. Race in the Cup Series all season and if you’re good enough to win, good on you.
(The other teams could do something about this if they didn’t like it, because if there were more than 16 regular season winners, Burton would be left out by virtue of his position in points. That’s still fair.)
That’s not to say that making or not making the playoff field is meaningless to the teams on the bubble. If you’ve watched Bubba Wallace put himself through the mental wringer the past few seasons, you know that’s not true.
But to return to our college basketball analogy for just a second, the 16 seeds don’t ever win it all, and drivers like Wallace or Burton who squeeze into the field don’t either. Maybe NASCAR does need to mull over whether it’s deciding its champion in the correct manner, but if it sticks with something like it has now, there’s no compelling reason to return to random places in the standings as part of the playoff formula.
4. Leigh Diffey is a Breath of Fresh Air
Nothing against Rick Allen, who is a terrific announcer in his own right, but having Leigh Diffey take over as the NBC Sports play-by-play voice for Daytona just felt right.
As a number of viewers pointed out on social media, Diffey brings the enthusiasm of a radio announcer to his calls, helping to liven things up even during lulls in the action. Sure, ideally NASCAR would never need any help to sell what’s going on, but there are times when it’s definitely appreciated.
Color commentators Jeff Burton and Steve Letarte are knowledgeable but a bit dry compared to the FOX crew that covers the first portion of the Cup Series season, and having Allen with them just made the whole booth a bit dull. It’s only been one race, the ultimate small sample size, but Diffey appears to be the spark needed to light a fire under the rest of the 2024 season on TV.
5. Bubba Wallace, Ross Chastain Need a Hail Mary Now
Toward the end of Saturday’s broadcast, Letarte said neither Wallace nor Ross Chastain had to win at Darlington to make the playoffs. That’s technically true, as both drivers are mathematically still alive.
The reality is much starker. With both men trailing Chris Buescher by 20-plus points, they’d each need everything to go right and Buescher to stumble to pass him. We’re talking more points than Buescher in both stages and a double-digit advantage in finishing position.
Possible yes, just not very likely.
That means a win is the way to go. Chastain has already authored a Hail Melon, and Wallace is no stranger to cutoff race pressure. Yet they’ll have to really come up clutch with no margin for error to make the postseason now.
