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Stat Sheet: Late-Race Cautions Have Spiked Since Introduction of Overtime

Have you noticed how many NASCAR Cup Series races this season have looked like they would end on a long green flag run, only for a caution to come out right on cue with two or three laps to go?

If you have, you’re not alone.

This Sunday’s (August 11) Cook Out 400 at Richmond Raceway marked the eighth overtime finish of the season, with all eight occurring in the last 17 races. With 13 races in the season to go, 2024 is only three overtimes away from tying the all-time high of 11 set back in 2017.

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Of the eight overtime finishes, two (Texas Motor Speedway and New Hampshire Motor Speedway) occurred in endings that featured an onslaught of late-race cautions. What more would another restart be when the end of the race was chock full of them?

But for the other six races, a lazy caution in the last handful of laps (by a car that wasn’t going to win) interrupted a long run that completely upended the way the race was going to play out. Three of the six races saw a late caution interrupt a run to the finish of at least 100 laps, while all but one of the yellows interrupted a run that was at least 50 laps.

For Richmond, last night marked the second straight Cup race where the entire final stage had run green until a caution was brought out with 2 laps to go.

RaceGreen Flag Run Before OTCaution that Forced OT
Richmond (March)159 laps2 to go (Larson spin)
Martinsville (April)189 laps3 to go (Nemechek crash)
Kansas (May)56 laps6 to go (Busch spin)
Nashville51 laps2 to go (Cindric spin)
Indianapolis29 laps3 to go (Busch crash)
Richmond (Aug.)159 laps2 to go (Stenhouse crash)

All six races had their unique storylines playing out as the laps ticked down, but alas, they were all for naught.

While the overtime restart at Kansas Speedway in May proved to be a barnburner, with Kyle Larson prevailing over Chris Buescher by 0.001 seconds in a four-wide photo finish at the stripe, four of the six proved to generate considerable controversy with how they ended.

In the first Richmond race in March, it appeared that Denny Hamlin hit the gas early and jumped the final restart over Martin Truex Jr.

At Nashville Superspeedway, the field could not stop crashing and running out of fuel in a five-overtime finish that took 31 extra laps to complete.

At Indianapolis Motor Speedway, the field began crashing and running out of fuel once again, and the race ended under caution as Ryan Preece’s immobilized car ran out of gas and was unable to get refired from a spin by the time the leaders took the white flag.

And here we are at Richmond, where Austin Dillon spun Joey Logano in turn 3 and veered left into Denny Hamlin at the exit of turn 4 to win the race.

Whether you’re a racing purist that enjoys orderly finishes or an agent of chaos that enjoys the excitement of late-race restarts for all the marbles doesn’t matter, but the fact is that overtime and these types of chaotic finishes have only become more frequent.

See also
The Big 6: Questions Answered After Austin Dillon Bashes His Way to Richmond Win

Consider this: Of the 352 Cup races (excluding races that ended under caution due to rain) from 1993 to 2003, only 23 of them ended under caution at the scheduled distance.

In other words, during the last 11 full-time seasons of races ending under caution in Cup, the chance that a race ended caution at the scheduled distance was 6.5%.

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With overtime implemented in the middle of the 2004 season, any race that has gone to overtime in the last 20 years is one that would’ve ended under caution in the old rules. Therefore, it would be reasonable to assume that approximately 6.5% of the Cup races in the last two decades have gone into overtime, right?

No. Not even close.

Since the start of the 2005 season, there have been a total of 707 Cup races. Twenty-three of those Cup races were either shortened by darkness (without the possibility of overtime) or ended under caution due to weather, which means that there are 684 Cup races since the start of 2005 that have been eligible for overtime if needed.

During that time span, a whopping 157 of 684 possible races have gone into overtime. That’s 23% of races going into extra distance, a clip that almost quadruples the 6.5% of races that ended under caution from 1993 to 2003.

The 2024 season has especially been notorious for overtime, as eight of the 21 eligible races (38.6%) have gone the extra distance, a percentage that — at its current trajectory — blows every other season out of the water.

Overtime Finishes

If Cup races ended under caution at the scheduled distance like they did before 2004, almost one in every four Cup races would end under caution in the present day.

What caused the sudden change? Well, it’s no secret that races in the 21st century have more cautions on average than ones in the 1990s, so the odds of a late-race caution in the present day have dramatically increased.

The other factor in play is the aggressiveness incentivized by the “win and you’re in” playoff format and the knowledge that the race isn’t over with a late caution. With the comfort that the field will be re-racked and given as many chances for a green-flag finish as possible, perhaps drivers are more incentivized to take those risks and make those aggressive moves knowing that a late caution no longer spells the end of their days.

Regardless of the reasons, overtime finishes and chaotic final restarts have only become more common at NASCAR’s highest level, and they won’t be going away any time soon.

About the author

Stephen Stumpf is the NASCAR Content Director for Frontstretch and is a three-year veteran of the site. His weekly columns include “Stat Sheet” and “4 Burning Questions.” He also writes commentary, contributes to podcasts, edits articles and is frequently at the track for on-site coverage.

Can find on Twitter @stephen_stumpf.

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Bill B

No surprise there. I hated the GWC rule from the moment it was announced. It has a high probability of taking the win away from the driver that deserves it and arbitrarily gives it to a less deserving driver in the name of entertainment. Too many times it turns the race into a chaos filled crapshoot, espcially when there are multiple GWC restarts.

Wildcatsfan2016

Really? Imagine that. No surprise at all. It was a stupid idea and having more than one retry was even worse

lots of wrecked race cars and the potential for injury to drivers and in some cases the fans. I remember Edward’s car in the stands at Daytona

DoninAjax

It has gotten to the point where people watching the end of the event are waiting for the caution to set up the GWCs. I know I was on Sunday. I was watching the last laps waiting for a driver to do something stupid. The laps are winding down. 5, 4, I am talking to the TV, come on caution, 3, 2, there it almost didn’t make it! And it is usually a car that is multiple laps down and shouldn’t be in the event except as a rolling roadblock.