Imagine being told just a few years ago that Riley Herbst would be one of the strongest prospects for a ride in the NASCAR Cup Series in 2025. You might’ve laughed at the thought. When Herbst came onto the scene in Xfinity, he exuded rich-dad-pay-driver vibes. Fast forward to today and you’ll see the talent seems to have caught up to the money.
At the beginning, Herbst seemed a little like the second coming of Dylan Kwasniewski. Both drivers are natives of Las Vegas, Nev. Both had an edgy look with an energy drink as a primary sponsor. Both struggled to execute in their rookie seasons despite driving for established teams. Believe it or not, Kwasniewski finished 11th in the 2014 Xfinity points. In 2020, Herbst’s rookie season, he finished 12th.
That is where the comparisons between the two drivers end. While Kwasniewski only had three top 10s in his rookie season, Herbst had 17. More of the doubt attached to Herbst’s name came about in his second full-time season, 2021. That year, he slid back in average finish and had four fewer top 10s. Those with a quick trigger made their judgement: that dog couldn’t hunt.
The sophomore slump could’ve been attributed to it being his first year with a new team, having moved from Joe Gibbs Racing to Stewart-Haas Racing. One step back soon led to two steps forward. In his second season with SHR, Herbst had an impressive 20 top 10s in 33 races, to go along with only five DNFs. He was running closer to the front, but the expectations were to win races and, at the end of 2022, he still hadn’t.
Last season was a roller-coaster year for Herbst. Seven races into the season, he was second in points. That high-water mark preceded a steady decline down the point standings while he failed to finish four of the next six races. When the dust settled on that slump, he had fallen down to 10th in points. When the playoffs began, Herbst was the first driver to miss the cut. He had more points than both Sammy Smith and Jeb Burton, but Herbst was winless while Smith and Burton had each won a race. Anyone who was paying close attention remembers how many of those poor finishes were not actually Herbst’s fault. There was a mix of bad luck and bad execution by the team. Still, Herbst hadn’t won a race and missed the playoffs because of it.
The doubt surrounding Herbst crept back in. But on Saturday, Oct 14, he turned the corner, scoring his first career victory at his home track of Las Vegas Motor Speedway. The win was as dominant as we tend to see in the modern era, a margin of victory of nearly 15 seconds, or about a half of a lap. He closed out last season with top fives in the last five races.
As of this writing, Herbst is coming off his second career victory and sits fifth in the points. The win came with plenty of prestige, happening at Indianapolis Motor Speedway on the famed oval. But the most impressive part about the win was how he did it.
The Vegas win was impressive, no question about it. But the Indianapolis win? That was on a whole new level. Herbst didn’t have the no-doubt best car like he did at Vegas, but he carried the car to a win with superior driving skill against Cup-level talent. This was something we hadn’t seen out of Herbst up until this point, and you have to wonder how many more we’ll see now that he’s broken through and gotten some confidence in his ability to win races at this level and beyond.
“And beyond?”
That’s right.
Herbst hasn’t blown the doors off the competition like prior Xfinity call-ups, such as Christopher Bell, Chase Briscoe and Noah Gragson, did. But he has continued to progress and now looks totally worthy of his top-tier ride in the Xfinity Series. Don’t forget, he’s only 25 years old.
Add in his assumptively lucrative and loyal sponsorship backing from Monster Energy, and he quickly becomes one of the top, if not the top, prospect for a Cup ride in 2024. It’s no secret that 23XI Racing has been looking at the possibility of purchasing a charter and expanding to a three-car team in 2025. Herbst looks like the leading candidate to drive the third car, and Denny Hamlin’s tweet shown above did little to dissuade those rumors.
I never thought I’d be saying this, but Herbst is deserving. He has 162 starts under his belt in Xfinity and nearly half (80) of those have been top 10s. Missing the playoffs in 2023 can be chalked up as a fluke given all the poor finishes outside of his control. He’s kept getting a little better year after year. He’s not been quite as good as Cole Custer, but does it matter? Custer is a year older than Herbst, is the defending champion, has run full-time in Cup before and even won a Cup race. He was also just announced to be returning to Cup to drive for Haas’ factory team. Custer and Herbst are both worthy of Cup rides.
Some will still say Herbst is only there because of his family’s money. To those readers I ask, how many drivers in NASCAR have rides because of the sponsorship they bring to the table? These days, it’s a majority. Even Kyle Busch couldn’t keep his ride at JGR without sponsorship.
By the way, Herbst’s great-grandfather starting a business that has turned into an empire, with around 180 convenience store locations and other entities that have been spun off over the years, is something we used to consider a positive part of the American dream. Is it Herbst’s fault that his grandfather and father were able to take the business to new heights, giving them the relationships and fortune needed to support the next generation’s dream of driving race cars for a living? Utilizing business to business strategies along the way? How many of us would’ve declined the opportunity if our families could do that for us?
Herbst has been humble along the way. He’s taken the shade thrown at him. He’s fought through the bumps in the road. On Saturday (July 20), at the most famous race track on the planet, he was sideways making a pass for the lead in the final turn, beating his champion teammate and a Cup veteran in the process.
That wasn’t Shane van Gisbergen. That wasn’t Sam Mayer, or Custer, or some Buschwacker. That was Riley Dederick Kern Herbst making one hell of a move to win a very big race in clutch time, locking himself into the playoffs in the process. A few years ago, I don’t think Herbst would’ve put himself in a position to even make that move, let alone pull it off.
About a year ago, Herbst’s team owner, Tony Stewart, seemed to make backhanded comments about Herbst when he talked about not wanting to promote someone to his Cup team just because their dad had money. I wonder what Tony thought about that sideways pass on Almirola to win at his beloved Indianapolis?
Now he gets to savor his win for an extended period of time. What does Herbst have planned for the three-week Olympic break?
“I’m gonna go drink beer and turn my phone off for three weeks.”
In the polarized world we live in today, that’s something most of us can agree sounds pretty awesome.
Time will tell the whole story for Herbst. But, right now, it’s starting to look like Stewart’s loss might be Hamlin’s gain.
About the author
Steve Leffew joined Frontstretch in 2023 and covers the Xfinity Series. He has served honorably in the United States Air Force and and lives in Wisconsin.
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Tony Stewart is a career killer. On and off track. All he has to do now is keep an eye on Leah