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Up to Speed: Can Ty Gibbs Win His Way Into the Playoffs?

It was two years ago at Pocono Raceway when Ty Gibbs made his NASCAR Cup Series debut. He spent the next several months filling in for Kurt Busch while continuing his primary job in the NASCAR Xfinity Series, winning that championship at the end of the year. As Gibbs prepared for his rookie season in the Cup Series, the 20-year-old had the look of a NASCAR superstar in the making.

Fast forward to 2024 and Gibbs finds himself in an interesting place in his career. He has already scored five top fives this season compared to four last year, and he only needs one more top 10 to match his total (10) from 2023. Gibbs has also earned 143 more points by this time in the season compared to 2023. He leaves Pocono 11th in overall points and in position for the playoffs, unlike last year where he was 19th overall and 28 points below the cut line with five races left. In many ways, Gibbs is already starting to show the potential that he flashed in the Xfinity Series.

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On the other hand, Gibbs is still looking for his first Cup Series win. After two seasons’ worth of races, his best result is a second-place finish at Darlington Raceway earlier this year. As good as Gibbs has been for his age and lack of experience, it feels like he is still searching for that moment where everything clicks and he becomes a regular contender for wins. That is not intended as a criticism of him, it’s just surprising when you consider that he won his first Xfinity start and proved to be such a quick study, even in the demanding world of NASCAR’s national touring series.

Struggling to get the first win is not an uncommon experience for young drivers, even the very good ones. Recall how Chase Elliott did not win a Cup Series race until his 99th start, which came during his third full-time season. Elliott was close many times before, racking up 27 top-five finishes before finally claiming that first victory at Watkins Glen International. Yet once Elliott did win, the floodgates opened. He finished first two more times in 2018, then earned a combined 15 victories over the next four seasons. Gibbs is in good company compared to Elliott’s journey to the winner’s circle, especially since Elliott’s first win came when he was 22. Gibbs still will not turn 22 until October. He has time to figure things out.

The most immediate concern for Gibbs and the No. 54 team is getting their playoff spot secured. Although he is knocking on the door of the top 10 in overall points, Gibbs is 14th in the playoff grid, displaced by a few drivers below him who have won in 2024. His current advantage is a 67-point gap back to Bubba Wallace, as well as 40 points over bubble driver Ross Chastain and 23 points over Chris Buescher. Those margins are not exactly comfortable, but they give Gibbs some breathing room as he prepares for the final stretch of the regular season.

The real trouble is that the No. 54 team has not been quite as fast as it was earlier in 2024. Gibbs was one of the most consistent drivers in the early weeks of the season. He enjoyed a trio of strong performances at Phoenix Raceway, Bristol Motor Speedway and Circuit of the Americas. Bristol in particular looked like it could be Gibbs’ race to lose early on. But as the drivers dealt with higher-than-expected tire wear, experience took over and Gibbs lost control of the race. Still, he was second in overall points six races into the season. It felt like that first win was right around the corner and his first Cup Series playoff berth was a forgone conclusion.

However, Gibbs and his team have had more bad races in the last couple of months, or weekends where the team ran well but the cards fell against them. An early crash from a cut tire at Sonoma Raceway spoiled a promising run. At Nashville Superspeedway, Gibbs started well, spun through the infield grass on lap 126, mounted a comeback into the top 10, then got junked in the big crash on the first overtime attempt. Even the Chicago Street Race, where Gibbs led early and scored a top-five finish, did not do much in terms of securing a playoff spot for the No. 54.

Last weekend’s race might have been the toughest blow of all. Gibbs won the pole and rocketed out to a big lead almost immediately. Pit strategies flip flopped the running order a few times, but Gibbs remained in contention until his final planned pit stop under caution on lap 118. However, he got busted for speeding on pit road, dropping him to the back of the pack and taking him out of contention for the win. To add insult to injury, the No. 54 blew an engine with 28 laps left, denying Gibbs a chance to pick up any additional positions.

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As Gibbs continues to battle for a playoff spot, the next five races could be enormous for his growth as a driver. This will be his greatest test yet to see if he and the No. 54 team can put complete races together, or at least hold their points position well enough to stay above the cut line.

Or, maybe he gets his first win. As mentioned earlier, Gibbs is not in a position where he needs a victory to save his overall career trajectory. There is still plenty of time for that. But how powerful would it be for him to score that first win right when he needs it most? If Gibbs has that magical moment where everything finally comes together right before the postseason, he could quickly turn into a bigger title threat than he is now. If it does not happen, he could miss the playoffs entirely. The next five races will have a major impact on determining whether or not this season is a success for Gibbs. We will see if he can flash superstar potential once more.

Bryan began writing for Frontstretch in 2016. He has penned Up to Speed for the past seven years. A lifelong student of auto racing, Bryan is a published author and automotive historian. He is a native of Columbus, Ohio and currently resides in Southern Kentucky.

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Carl D.

Not a fan of the Gibblet, but he’s young so I’ll cut him a little slack.

DoninAjax

I can see him turning into Denny but not so much Christopher. He already has the entitled attitude.

Last edited 6 months ago by DoninAjax
Erica

Some things are his fault but still learning. Pit c ew is getting it together but the biggest problem is the crew chief and he needs to go. Chris Gayle was crew chief for Joey L. Eric Jones and now Ty. Three drivers with only two wins? Not impressive at all. Bad calls and pit strategy has cost Ty wins