1. Don’t Change the Overtime Rules Just to Save Drivers From Themselves
There aren’t many sporting events of any kind that got to five overtimes.
College football is one that comes to mind, but the NCAA changed the rules not long ago to prevent it from happening as often. Baseball games can stretch on quite a bit into extra innings and the occasional NHL playoff game will reach legendary lengths.
NASCAR races don’t tend to get to that point too often, but the current overtime rules make five OTs possible. Indeed, the NASCAR Cup Series race at Nashville Superspeedway this past Sunday (June 30) defied the odds and made it to that point.
It was borderline ridiculous, to be sure. Line them up, watch them spin out or wreck, take a few caution laps and line them up again. Lather, rinse, repeat.
There are some racing fans who are just fine with races ending under yellow, while others prefer a green-flag finish as often as possible. Naturally, that’s led to a “hey, maybe we should look at changing the overtime rules” debate after what just happened.
While all opinions on this issue are valid, here’s what can’t be ignored: Any limit on overtimes in NASCAR would essentially be put in place just to save drivers and teams from their own ill-advised decisions.
All that needs to prevent multiple overtimes is to make it through one clean lap of racing to reach the white flag. That’s a fact that’s sometimes overlooked.
These are some of the best drivers in the world, and there have been plenty of occasions where track conditions or certain rules packages made it appear incidents would be plentiful. They somehow managed to avoid running into each other in many of those spots.
In other words, there’s nothing saying that things like this have to take place.
Another one of the Nashville overtimes was necessitated by Kyle Larson‘s car not going on the restart because it was running on fumes. This, too, could have been avoided.
No one is going to say it in as many words, but any driver or team advocating for a limit on overtimes is essentially saying, “We want to be able to run toward the end without thought of the consequences.”
But that’s not true at any other part of a race, so why should the end be any different?
The overtime rule is just fine the way it is, as it gives the fans who pay to attend or watch on TV the best possible chance of seeing a race end under green. Don’t want that to require 20+ extra laps and five additional restarts? Cool, just don’t drive like a maniac or push the strategy right to the edge — and be prepared for what happens if you do.
2. Kyle Larson is Too Good to Be Getting In This Many Incidents
A little more than a year ago, this very column made the argument that maybe Larson was the best driver currently wheeling cars of any type. So it’s more than a little strange that his summer is off to such a crash-tastic start.
As noted above, Larson was involved in two of the overtime incidents at Nashville, first sending Ross Chastain for a ride and later stalling in front of Kyle Busch to set off the type of accident that is more typical on a highway than a racetrack.
Chastain took the high road in his post-race interviews, presumably because he’s not that far removed from being the driver everyone was mad at for causing wrecks. Busch, truly having the season from hell at this point, also didn’t go off on Larson, though what really would be the point?
Of course, Larson also had a run-in that collected Denny Hamlin a few weeks ago at Iowa, so this is now a trend and not an isolated incident. To his credit, Larson is almost always contrite, saying he didn’t intend to wreck anyone and hates it for whoever ends up the victim.
He’d probably also say he’s driving the way he needs to drive to compete for wins and championships. Maybe that’s true.
But maybe it isn’t.
Larson already has one Cup Series title to his name, and he wasn’t running into people as often as he seems to be as of late. Have things changed so much with the current car, rules and schedule that he feels the need to ratchet up the aggressiveness to stay sharp?
It’s definitely something to keep in mind as the regular season rushes toward its conclusion.
3. Zane Smith Almost Came Up With One of the All-Time Clutch Wins
One of the most fascinating “what if” questions of the Nashville Cup Series race is whether Zane Smith would have won if Joey Logano‘s team wouldn’t have performed whatever alchemy it did to make sure he didn’t run out of gas.
Smith came home second, so that suggests he would have, though who knows what would have taken place if the No. 22 just ran out of fuel with three cars dicing it up right behind him.
Had he come out of that with the checkered flag, it’s hard to think of a more unlikely winner in recent seasons than Smith. Even after his second-place result, he remains 34th in points, last among all the drivers who have made all 19 starts (and Erik Jones, who missed two races).
To put it lightly, that’s not great for his immediate future. It’s possible that Trackhouse Racing could give him a Cup Series ride in 2025, but this hasn’t exactly been a great audition.
One win might not have changed that, especially since sponsorship is arguably even more important than performance in such decisions these days. But it would have been hard indeed to deny Smith if he had a race win and a playoff appearance under his belt.
4. Shane van Gisbergen Won’t Be Sneaking Up on Anyone at Chicago This Time
Speaking of unlikely triumphs, Shane van Gisbergen gave fans a fantastic one last year on the streets of Chicago.
Drivers don’t just show up in Cup and win in their first start too often, but the Kiwi did exactly that.
While van Gisbergen has decided to give NASCAR a more thorough go this year, he’s done it in the NASCAR Xfinity Series as he acclimates to life on ovals. Yet he’ll be back to defend his victory in the Cup race on the Chicago street course, which begs the question of whether he’ll pull off an encore.
It wouldn’t be wise to bet against him, but the guess here is no. The Cup regulars have one race on this circuit under their belts now. While the same is true for SVG, his advantage over the field at street course racing figures to be less this time around.
Not only that, but the top Cup drivers have proven over the years that they adapt quickly. They’ll learn not only from what van Gisbergen pulled off last year but also from how he’s running during the race this weekend.
All that’s to say that SVG figures to be among the contenders, but a second win will be a lot tougher and even less likely than the first.
5. The Playoff Field Might Be Set
Yes, this is a flimsy limb to go out on days after the last-place person in points came close to winning a race, but if you look at the playoff field now, there’s a decent chance it looks exactly the same when the postseason starts this fall.
Let’s start with the obvious part: Barring an injury to someone just above the cut line, no one is racing their way in on points. Bubba Wallace is currently on the outside looking in … but by 51 points.
Mathematically, he and some others can definitely still climb the standings. But we have years of evidence now to suggest that won’t happen.
That leaves us the other way to shake up the field, which is for drivers who are dead to rights on points nabbing a victory. It’s not impossible, as Wallace, Chase Briscoe, Michael McDowell and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. have all done it before.
So has Busch, obviously, dozens of times over. It just seems like he may need someone to dispel the curse on his car this year to do it.
Rowdy aside, it just feels like the group of drivers above the cut line but with zero wins is more likely to break through. It includes Martin Truex Jr., Ross Chastain, Chris Buescher and Alex Bowman, who all know their way to victory lane, plus Ty Gibbs, for whom it’s almost certainly just a matter of time.
It’s better for fans and NASCAR if there’s drama going down to the end of the last regular season race. Daytona International Speedway and Darlington Raceway could still offer a dramatic twist or two.
But it wouldn’t be surprising if that doesn’t happen. Get your playoff takes ready early because the 16 drivers in those spots now could very well be staying there.
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I’ll be glad when Larson handles hamlins way of racing everyone into the wall like Joey did. Notice hamlin stays away from Joey now