Is it over?
That was the question posed by Frontstretch IndyCar Content Director Alex Gintz on the recent Post-Race Conversation after the Firestone Grand Prix of Monterey at WeatherTech Raceway Laguna Seca.
At the time this was asked, the discussion had transitioned to discussing that two-time NTT IndyCar Series champion Alex Palou, who hours before had just won at Laguna Seca, was now the new points leader. All of the IndyCar writers were wondering if Palou was ever going to relinquish the lead again. It’s a valid question because over the last three and half seasons, Palou is historically consistent, with just his inaugural title defense in 2022 as an ink stain – perhaps from the pen he signed an Arrow McLaren contract with, even? – which blots out his incredible stats.
Now he leads the two winningest drivers on the circuit and perhaps the greatest in this generation of IndyCar racing – Will Power and Scott Dixon – by 23 and 32 points, respectively.
So, is it over?
Of course not.
Well, maybe.
Who really knows, right? There is a lot of racing yet to happen, and the schedule isn’t really at the half-way point yet, with a four-week break for the Olympics over the horizon.
Still, there are some signs of life in the paddock for those fully intending to challenge Palou. As Frontstretch’s Christopher DeHarde said, on the record, during the same PRC: Palou’s lead this year is very manageable compared to this time last year.
After the eighth round in 2023 at the Sonsio Grand Prix at Road America, Palou’s lead in the standings was 74 points over Marcus Ericsson. In the last 10 years, only two other championship battles had a larger gap than Palou did, with Simon Pagenaud’s 80 points in 2016 and Dixon in the COVID-19 season with an astounding 117-point margin. Each of them won the title in those respective years.
What did all three of those championship leads have in common though? A string of victories that the winner used as nitro to burst ahead of the competition. Pagenaud grabbed three straight wins in 2016, which had been preceded by two straight runner-ups, in the first five races of that season. Dixon was ill-affected by the COVID-19 shut down and unique schedule that was banded together, winning the first three events and earning the double points for finishing second at the Indianapolis 500.
How about Palou last year? After the eighth event he was at the pinnacle of an unbelievable summer, with three wins in four races, and on the verge of winning again at the next round.
While those three years are examples of drivers being on a roll, that’s not quite what the series has right now. No one has really taken off like that so far in 2024. Only two drivers have won twice, with Palou joining Dixon after Laguna Seca. Amongst the top three in the standings, they are very close in results and stats. Power has matched Palou in top 10s, each with seven. Dixon has led just 14 laps less than Palou, so it’s wrong to say the Spaniard is putting his stakes down to claim this as his homestead.
There is a lot of racing left to go, and this is IndyCar, anything can happen. Dixon took his most recent title in that 2020 season by 16 points, after a late stumble near the end of the season allowed runner-up Josef Newgarden to cut into the deficit. Last year it seemed Newgarden, after his sweep at Iowa Speedway, was in position to clamp down on the exhaust pipe of Palou’s No. 10 Honda, with the oval at Worldwide Technology Raceway being the Waterloo he needed to overcome the odds. But, after crashing, his quest was ended and Palou took his second Astor Cup Trophy.
However, there is something to be analyzed by how Newgarden was able to seize some hope in closing with Palou in the late season stretch. Try as he might, Palou has not been able to win on ovals.
It’s not that he doesn’t possess the skill. In 2021, he finished second to Helio Castroneves in the Indy 500, his first with Chip Ganassi Racing. Then last year, after contact with Rinus Veekay dropped him from being in the lead pack to 26th, he worked back to fourth by race’s end. A driver has to know how to race ovals to make that happen at Indianapolis.
Still, the wins aren’t there. His best finish at Iowa and Gateway came last year, a third and seventh, respectively, but more concerning is that he has paced the field only one total lap at either track. In any previous year, this wouldn’t be a problem, as a top 10 at two of those three oval races, Iowa being a doubleheader, would be sufficient to maintain a points lead as podium results at the road and street circuits would surely follow. This season is much different than any IndyCar has experienced in some time with its oval events heavily-concentrated in the second half.
Palou will have to face not three but six ovals in the season’s last nine races. There is the aforementioned Gateway and Iowa, but new to the schedule is the doubleheader at the Milwaukee Mile and Nashville Superspeedway, the season finale.
While he may not have the wins, and therefore in theory may not be thought of as a challenger at these events, there are some things working in his favor. One, not many drivers have run at either track since Milwaukee last held an IndyCar race in 2015 and Nashville even further back in 2008. Two, if the banked oval at Nashville races like Texas in any way, then Palou might not have as big a hill to climb. He was relatively consistent in the Lone Star State, with four top fives, including a podium last year.
Considering those two points, he is in a decent position to maintain momentum.
Well, actually, there is one big caveat to throw in there – out of the few drivers in the field who have run at either of those race tracks in IndyCar, Dixon and Power are in that group. In fact, they are two of five drivers on the current grid to have raced at Milwaukee, and two of four at Nashville.
Power only raced Nashville once, finishing 11th, but he’s raced the Mile seven times, winning in 2014 and finishing second the year before that. As for Dixon, he has plenty of experience at Milwaukee with 12 starts (ignore the one DNS after he wrecked his primary and back-up cars in 2004) and one win.
But Palou should be a tad bit worried that the largest concrete oval in the nation is back on the circuit. Of tracks that are no longer on the schedule, Nashville was up there with Watkins Glen as part of the Dixon Domination Tour. He won at the oval outside Lebanon, Tennessee three years in a row from 2006 to 2008, and also had a second place to join two other top 10s in six starts.
In a motorsport series with the tightest competition on Earth, having any experience on those two tracks which will equate to three total races with the Milwaukee doubleheader will be a huge advantage. Palou could easily get up to speed well enough to mitigate any lost ground, but if he stumbles or takes half a race to figure things out, his two closest IndyCar championship contenders will be able to pounce. Add the additional stress that Nashville will be the finale, if either Dixon or Power are in reach of that lead, it won’t be guaranteed that the Spaniard will be in control of the situation.
Some of this concern could be mitigated if Newgarden, the best oval driver in the series, wins any of these races. While that seems far fetched, it’s also beyond possible. After all, he was one Gateway victory from sweeping the entire oval schedule in 2023. Dating back to 2022, of the 11 oval races held, he’s won eight of them. Two of three victories he missed were cut down by crashes, but he was in contention all the way.
Why this matters to Palou isn’t about Newgarden jumping back into the title chase per se, while in theory it could happen it doesn’t seem feasible with two 26th-place finishes in his dossier this year, including the DNQ at St. Petersburg. It’s more related to Newgarden taking the championship points away from his competitors. A win is worth 50 points, and the gap between first and second is the most in IndyCar’s scoring system, with a difference of 10.
The series rewards winning, and if Newgarden is doing more of that on ovals than Dixon and Power, then that only benefits Palou as he can be in a better position to stay ahead if they can’t take the opportunity to hack at his points lead. In a series this close, that 10-point difference between winning and runner-up matters greatly.
All of this will be trivial though if Palou figures out how to put a complete performance together on the ovals and takes control of his own destiny by winning. Could be Iowa, Gateway or one of the new venues, but if he does figure it out and puts that No. 10 DHL Honda in victory lane, what does the rest of the paddock do then?
Maybe lean back against their haulers, arms crossed, shaking heads and say, “well, I guess it’s over.”
About the author
Tom is an IndyCar writer at Frontstretch, joining in March 2023. Besides writing the IndyCar Previews and the occasional Inside Indycar, he will hop on as a fill-in guest on the Open Wheel podcast The Pit Straight. His full-time job is with the Department of Veterans Affairs History Office and is a lieutenant colonel in the Army National Guard. After graduating from Purdue University with a Creative Writing degree, he was commissioned in the Army and served a 15-month deployment as a tank platoon leader with the 3d ACR in Mosul, Iraq. A native Hoosier, he calls Fort Wayne home. Follow Tom on Twitter @TomBlackburn42.
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If everyone else receives all the push to pass that Josef seems to get on the ovals, he’ll have a chance! lol