The 2025 Silly Season looks a whole lot different than it did at this time one month ago.
It started on May 28, when Stewart-Haas Racing announced that it would shut its doors for good at the end of 2024. The loss is not only monumental to the Cup Series, as the two-time champions will not see the green flag for the first time in 16 years, but also for manufacturer Ford.
With the closure, four of its Cup teams are out the window, as well as two of its Xfinity Series teams. That leaves Ford’s developmental pipeline in absolute shambles. In the Craftsman Truck Series, the only Ford teams are ThorSport Racing, Reaume Brothers Racing and Front Row Motorsports.
ThorSport either has veterans locked in long term or young guns who need another year or two of development before even being considered for promotion. FRM’s driver Layne Riggs has a multiyear deal in place, while RBR doesn’t have any drivers in its stable worthy of promotion.
Ford’s Xfinity pipeline isn’t much better. With SHR’s demise at season’s end, that leaves AM Racing’s one-car team and RSS Racing’s four-car team (counting its offshoot team of Viking Motorsports), plus the part-time team of Rette Jones Racing, as the manufacturer’s only organizations going forward in Xfinity.
Much like ThorSport, RSS is full of drivers either in its stable for the long haul or not quite ready for promotion. AM’s driver Hailie Deegan has had a rookie season from hell, and it will be a little bit before she’s even considered for promotion — if that day even comes.
That leaves its Cup Series teams. FRM will have at least three cars by way of purchasing one of SHR’s charters. With Michael McDowell leaving at season’s end, Todd Gilliland will have two new teammates yet to be determined or announced. Rick Ware Racing has two rides, one of which is occupied by Justin Haley with the other split between Kaz Grala, Riley Herbst and Cody Ware (however, RWR would be fools to not consider Grala for a full-time ride with the job he’s done so far this season).
RFK Racing’s two-car operation is filled for the foreseeable future, while the same goes for Team Penske. That leaves Wood Brothers Racing and its one-car operation with Harrison Burton. Burton is on the flaming hot seat, and has been for years. There’s a more than high probability that Burton will not return to the No. 21 next season.
The name that has been most attached to the ride for 2025 is Chase Briscoe. As one of the four SHR Cup drivers racing for their futures, Briscoe is one of the highest drivers on Ford’s list. He’s been in the Ford system since 2016, when he raced most of the 2016 ARCA Menards Series in a Ford with Cunningham Motorsports.
If there’s one driver that Ford will want to keep in its dwindling system, it’s the Mitchell, Ind. native. He has the talent to win, but he just needs the right equipment and people around him to thrive.
So how is he the leading candidate to replace Martin Truex Jr. at Toyota?
On June 13, Jordan Bianchi reported that Truex is expected to announce his retirement as soon as Friday (June 14). A small bombshell dropped in the article is that Briscoe is rumored to be the leading candidate to take over the No. 19.
This comes as a surprise, not only from the aspect that Briscoe is Ford’s baby, but also the fact that Toyota has several in-house prospects who could take Truex’s ride instead of poaching from another manufacturer.
The one that comes to mind immediately is Chandler Smith. Between his two seasons in Xfinity, he’s more Cup ready than anybody in Joe Gibbs Racing’s Xfinity stable. It seemed like it was going to play out that way too; it almost felt like the next JGR ride that opened up in Cup was Smith’s ride to lose. But unfortunately, if sources are correct, Smith will likely have to go through another year of Xfinity before getting a Cup opportunity.
However, such a phenomenon is par for the course for Toyota, which has a habit of signing a bunch of drivers with no real plan for them in the long term. That pushes some of its higher talent out of its pipeline and into the hands of other manufacturers.
That actually is what caused Smith to leave the Toyota pipeline in the first place. An Xfinity ride didn’t open up for him in 2023 with Toyota, so he left Kyle Busch Motorsports’ Truck Series team and joined Chevrolet and Kaulig Racing. He was passed on for one of Kaulig’s open Cup rides, which caused him to return to Toyota and join JGR this year in hopes of receiving that coveted Cup seat.
It seemed that he was in line for one until this recent report. If it comes to fruition, will Smith end up leaving for somewhere else, or will he rely on 23XI Racing or Legacy Motor Club to bring him up into a third ride (provided either of them purchase a charter from SHR)?
Several drivers have made the choice to leave the Toyota family due to better opportunities. In fact, over a quarter of the full-time Cup Series field right now have driven or are currently driving for Toyota. As Toyota only has eight full-time Cup rides this season, there are several drivers who wound up in different places due to Toyota’s pipeline consistently clogging up with talent.
That’s not even considering Toyota’s aforementioned insistence on signing outside drivers instead of moving talent within Toyota Racing Development to the next level. That causes drivers such as Smith and Jesse Love to end up leaving the development program and flourish where they feel more valued.
Meanwhile, Ford has the exact opposite problem: Drivers and teams are leaving its stable, and it hasn’t done much to try to poach anyone over to its program. That’s why it has the least drivers and teams under contract. Realistically, Ford has no drivers left to develop unless it can put more effort into Deegan or find Frankie Muniz a full-time ride.
Ford and Toyota somehow have the opposite problem but are in the same danger of losing their top prospects. With Briscoe allegedly the favorite to replace Truex, both parties lose out on some of their top drivers. Briscoe leaves Ford in a position where it needs to find its new star, while Toyota could miss out on Smith yet again — and if Smith becomes, say, the new favorite for the Wood Brothers ride, Toyota swings and misses on Smith for a second time.
Either way, it might be time for both manufacturers to take a step back and figure out their ways forward. Ford seemingly has no future, while Toyota has plenty of options but limited rides available.
All the while, Chevrolet seems to have its developmental system figured out at the moment.
About the author
Anthony Damcott joined Frontstretch in March 2022. Currently, he is an editor and co-authors Fire on Fridays (Fridays); he is also the primary Truck Series reporter/writer and secondary short track writer. He also serves as an at-track reporter and assists with social media when he can. A proud West Virginia Wesleyan College alum from Akron, Ohio, Anthony is now a grad student. He is a theatre actor and fight-choreographer-in-training in his free time.
You can keep up with Anthony by following @AnthonyDamcott on X.
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Agree completely. I am surprised more Toyota development drivers haven’t been poached and sent to other manufacturers’ teams.
I am a Ford fan and have no idea what they are doing. There is a plan and let’s see what happens.
While Ford may not have enough development drivers or teams to place them with, and Toyota has too many drivers and not enough teams, they’re both still better off than the Chevy teams. At least both of them still make a sedan they can race, but with the Camaro and Malibu dead what will the Chevy teams race in a couple years?
Maybe a Cadillac CT4. Or maybe they’ll squish an Equinox to try something radical. The smallest crossovers are basically big sedans at this point anyway.
Haas is going to keep the two xfinty cars going and support the 39 and the 25 and the other Ford Xfinty teams
Since you brought up Wood Brothers, I’d really like to see a good driver lead them back to prominence. I think Gragson could be that driver. Is it a good fit? I dunno, but winning cures a lot of ills.
As for the rumors of Gragson going to RCR, I don’t see it. Austin Hill and Jesse Love are the future of RCR. Hill already got passed over for Busch, and he’s not gonna hang around in Xfinity forever.
I wouldn’t hold my breath on Hill ever becoming a good cup driver. He whines too much and doesn’t ever seem to make a mistake, always someone else.
Hopefully he learns some accountability, but someone will sign him I’m sure.
I agree with you about Hill, but his results in Xfinity have been undeniable.
“He whines too much and doesn’t ever seem to make a mistake, always someone else.”
That never stopped Denny Hamlin.
Because Toyota signs drivers who bring in sponsors and money. As for Ford they are 100% focus on their cup program.