Daily Fantasy NASCAR DraftKings Forecast: 2024 Advent Health 400

After enjoying a solid weekend at Talladega Superspeedway, I saw my NASCAR DraftKings picks at Dover suffer mightily at the hands of Miles The Monster. But it’s a new race ahead and a new opportunity to recoup some lost cash as we move on to a true jewel in the heartland.

The NASCAR Cup Series heads to the extremely fast and fiercely entertaining Kansas Speedway in Kansas City, KS for this weekend’s Advent Health 400. Coverage begins on Sunday, May 5 at 5 p.m. ET on Fox.

This intermediate track measures the standard 1.5 miles long and has progressive baking in the turns. It can be best described as a mix of Las Vegas Motor Speedway’s layout and the now-demolished Auto Club Speedway in Southern California.

Kansas has frequently served up great racing since its opening in 2001, as its wide surface provides plenty of options for drivers to find speed in multiple grooves. There have been many unforgettable finishes in its short history, racing memories made as recently as 2023. In this race last year, good off-track friends but bitter on-track rivals Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson tangled for the win on the final lap. Hamlin went on to take the victory while Larson crashed into the outside wall courtesy Hamlin’s front bumper.

There was also the infamous pit road fist fight between Noah Gragson and Ross Chastain after the race, a fracas which will forever be replayed in every intro package for a Cup race at Kansas.

As this race plays out, teams will likely be pushed to find long-run speed to be successful, as there are not usually many caution periods in this race. Qualifying will be important, but not as important as it would be at a short track or somewhere where passing is a massive challenge. Expect pit strategy and even fuel mileage to play a role in who is around at the end with a shot to win.

As for this week’s picks and bets, you should pay attention to the Toyota camp. Toyota is on an incredible hot streak here at Kansas, as a Toyota driver has gone to Victory Lane five times out of the last six races. Going deeper, 23XI Racing and its co-owner, Hamlin, have combined for four straight.

By no means am I saying you should strictly fill your roster with Toyota drivers. Larson, Chase Elliott, Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney will all be threats to win this weekend for their respective manufacturers as well.

Before we get into the picks, here are the scoring rules for DraftKings.

Points will be awarded on DraftKings for finishing position, position differential, fastest laps and laps led. The driver who wins the race scores 45 fantasy points, while second gets 42 points, third gets 41 points and so on, at least through the top 10. The 11th-place finisher scores 32 points, 21st gets 21 points and 31st gets 10 points.

However many spots they lose or gain on the track are added to or subtracted from the score. Then, if the driver leads a lap, they will earn 0.25 points for each lap led and 0.45 points for each fastest lap.

DraftKings NASCAR Scoring Rules

Fantasy Forecast

1. Tyler Reddick ($10,700)

Stats that matter: 1 career win at Kansas (Fall 2023), 2 top 10s in last two Kansas starts, the No. 45 car has won three out of the last four races at Kansas, all with different drivers

TR is not only the most recent winner here, but he’s driving the car that has been in Victory Lane the most of any in the field recently.

After picking up his first win of the season at Talladega, this team is building a whole lot of positive momentum coming into one of its best tracks. Reddick is quickly becoming a threat to win anywhere on the schedule, but something about this place agrees with Hamlin and Michael Jordan’s fledgling operation.

Reddick should absolutely be the favorite this weekend, even with Larson and Hamlin in the field. It seems like a lifetime ago, but Reddick was very close to grabbing a win away from the No. 5 car out in Las Vegas earlier this year. It feels like intermediates are always the strongest match for Reddick’s skill set.

The team’s track record and the momentum they’re carrying into this race, fresh off that Talladega win two weeks ago, are more than enough reasons to spend the money here.

2. Bubba Wallace ($9,500)

Stats that matter: 1 career win at Kansas (Fall 2022), 3 top-10 finishes in last 5 Kansas starts, finished 7th at Texas (most recent race at an intermediate track)

The other driver in the field who’s won in the No. 45, Wallace, has been very consistent at Kansas as of late, even before that win.

Kansas agrees with Wallace about as much as it does with 23XI as a whole. Bubba’s had a very tough couple of weeks, though. He crashed at both Talladega and Dover, putting him on the wrong side of the postseason bubble.

But as we saw during his playoff run last season, the driver of the No. 23 is at his best when his back is against the wall. A motivated Bubba Wallace is the one you want on your side, even if his price this week is a little high.

3. Joey Logano ($8,300)

Stats that matter: 3 career wins at Kansas (2014, 2015, 2020), 3 top-10 finishes in his last 5 starts at Kansas

Yep, Ford is still looking for that first win this season. It’s got to happen sometime soon, right?

Much like his manufacturer, Logano has struggled in a myriad of ways this season, but recently, he’s had a slight uptick in performance. The two-time Cup champion needs to round himself back into form, and Kansas is probably a good place to do it.

Logano’s got a good history here, and though he hasn’t shown it in a few weeks, this team excels when they start up front – something I expect with the speed Team Penske has been showing in qualifying. The salary is icing on the cake, a total bargain this week at $8,300.

4. Alex Bowman ($8,000)

Stats that matter: 3 consecutive top-10 finishes at Kansas, has won at Kansas’ sister tracks (Las Vegas and Auto Club), 3 top-10 finishes in his last four races in 2024

While he may not have a win here like his teammates Larson and Elliott, Kansas has been one of “The Showman’s” best tracks.

Since the Next Gen car was run at Kansas in 2022, he’s never finished outside the top 10. Bowman also might have missed the spring race here last season, but his No. 48 car, with Josh Berry behind the wheel, ran consistently in the top 25 all race long.

Crew chief Blake Harris is still looking for his first win since moving over to Hendrick Motorsports from Front Row back in 2023, but momentum is definitely on the side of this team. Bowman’s worst finish since crashing at Texas three weeks ago was an eighth last week at Dover.

Look for the famous No. 48 to run well this weekend, continuing to build momentum toward ending the team’s winless drought.

5. Noah Gragson ($7,400)

Stats that matter: 2 straight top-10 finishes, including a career-best of 3rd at Talladega, 1 career Xfinity Series win at Kansas (2022), finished 6th at Las Vegas earlier this season

Well, would you look at that?

Don’t look now, but performance-wise, Gragson is emerging as the lead horse at Stewart-Haas Racing this year. He’s got the team’s only top-five finish this season while notching just as many top 10s as senior driver Chase Briscoe.

Gragson’s recent performances have unquestionably shown an ability and talent the young driver has shown over years running lower series. He has won at Kansas in the NASCAR Xfinity Series, while in Cup, a solid run at Las Vegas back in March bodes well for his chances on Sunday.

Some people believe Gragson could find a win this season, and I’m among them. I think that could very well come here at Kansas this weekend. At the very least, he should have another solid run, making the most of a very inexpensive salary.

6. Daniel Hemric ($5,500)

Stats that matter: 2 straight top-10 finishes at Talladega and Dover, one career pole at Kansas (2019)

Hemric has been well, not great overall in his return to the Cup Series in 2024, but he’s shown some flashes the last two weeks.

The former NASCAR Xfinity Series champion was a clear benefactor of “The Big One” at Talladega and was actually very impressive at Dover last week. However, Hemric definitely hasn’t run that well at intermediate tracks this season and was kind of abysmal here while in the Xfinity Series, so I don’t have a lot to go on with this pick.

What made the difference here? This guy’s cheap, he has momentum, and, well, I was out of money :).

Prop Bets and Locks

1. Ross Chastain (+275) to finish in the top five: Chastain has just looked slightly off far too often this season, but his best runs have come on intermediate tracks. He finished fourth at Las Vegas and very nearly won at Texas until he crashed on the final lap. The “Melon Man” also finished fifth in this race last season, cementing his status as your top wager this week.
2. William Byron (+350) Group A Winner: This group consists of Larson, Hamlin, and Reddick so it may be tough for “Willy B” to pull this off. However, despite the fact that this team’s momentum has cooled over the last two weeks, Byron has reached the point where you can’t count him out ever. Rudy Fugle is the type of crew chief who will gamble on fuel strategy if needed, and even if the No. 24 isn’t the fastest of this group, he’s got a shot to beat them all.
3. Ty Gibbs (+1500) to win: Ty’s another driver who had great momentum going to start the year and just kind of fell off a bit between Richmond and Talladega. He did, however, finish tenth at Dover, and that could be a sign that he’s getting into a groove again. Gibbs is also driving a Toyota, an huge asset here, and already has an Xfinity win. You don’t have to wager much to get a good return on this bet.

That’s all for this week. Here’s to hoping your bet slips don’t end up like “dust in the wind” and that your fantasy lineup is “rock chalk” solid. OK, I think that’s enough bad Kansas puns for now, at least until we’re not in Kansas anymore.

Good luck, and happy betting!