ONE: THE BIG ONE
As you might have heard, there’s a rather significant race next up this Sunday afternoon at big bad Talladega Superspeedway.
Following the shenanigans at Charlotte Motor Speedway last Saturday evening and the threat of the second phase of Chase elimination, I would expect this race to be even madder than the usual restrictor plate race craziness. Whether or not we see any retaliation remains to be seen but given the inherent dangers of this form of racing, I have to hope that any planned revenge is served cold at a later date.
In many ways, it’s a shame that this race is a Chase eliminator since much of your own fate rests in the hands of others. But on the other hand, given that anyone can win on the day, it gives the drivers on the outside looking in a wonderful opportunity to make it to the next round of the playoffs.
In previous iterations of the Chase, Talladega has always been the race drivers have feared and we’ve certainly seen championship contenders content to sit at the back of the field – in relative safety – for much of the afternoon. I’m not sure we’ll see that sort of approach this time around especially for the likes of Dale Earnhardt, Jr., Jimmie Johnson and Brad Keselowski, who absolutely need to win to make it. One way or another this should be riveting viewing.
TWO: CLINCH SCENARIOS
Just two drivers are sitting pretty headed into the race this weekend – Joey Logano, who won at Kansas, and Kevin Harvick, who picked up the victory this past weekend at Charlotte.
For the rest of the Chase field, the story is somewhat different. Five drivers can only control their destiny through a win: Kasey Kahne (one point up on ninth place), Matt Kenseth (one point behind eighth), Keselowski (19 points back), Johnson and Earnhardt (both 26 points in arrears). Of course there are circumstances whereby a great finish could be enough – especially for the first two – but essentially these drivers are reliant on either winning or misfortune for others.
For the remaining drivers, it’s a question of math which on a regular track would be much more manageable, but at Talladega it’s a very different story. For the record, for Kyle Busch a 24th place run is good enough; for Ryan Newman, 19th place; Carl Edwards, 18th; Jeff Gordon, 16th place; and Denny Hamlin, 15th. If any of these drivers lead a lap or lead most laps their necessary finish drops down by one or two points respectively.
THREE: IMAGINE IF KYLE LARSON HAD MADE THE CHASE
Take a look at Kyle Larson’s results so far in the Chase; they make extremely impressive reading. He opened up with a third-place run at Chicagoland and 20 laps led before a runner-up finish at Loudon. At Dover he finished in sixth place before another second place run at Kansas. Finally, at Charlotte last Saturday night it was another sixth-place run and five more laps pacing the field.
Simply put, those are championship-winning numbers for a rookie who seems to be unfazed by just about everything. All told this year, Larson has eight top-5 finishes and 16 top-10 runs and an average finish of 13.9. Just 21 years of age, Larson has run a total of 101 races across the three top tiers of NASCAR: 35 at the Cup level, 58 in the Nationwide Series and eight races in the Truck Series.
Given how he’s run this year in a car that was uncompetitive under the previous incumbent, Juan Pablo Montoya, even the most conservative of prognosticators would have to suggest he has a stellar future ahead of him. Just imagine if that first win had come in the regular season? He’d be sitting pretty for a spot in the third round of the Chase.
We’ll never know how the pressure of the playoffs would have affected him but my guess is he’d have driven just as successfully.
FOUR: PENALTIES
By the time some of you read this column, it’s likely that any penalties resulting from Saturday night’s post race fracas will have already been handed out. Perhaps NASCAR has decided to turn a blind eye but perhaps has decided to come down hard on the participants.
So here’s my two cents for what it’s worth. I would leave it under the “boys, have at it” theory and issue stern warnings and nothing else. Yes, Keselowski needs to be told to behave himself – especially on pit road – because if he’s that angry he should fight properly face to face and not use his car as a weapon. That’s not how men fight.
NASCAR is, and always will be, a sport of great emotion. And that for me was evidenced by the seven text messages on the incident I received from a great friend who loves NASCAR dearly, but hates the new format with an immense I-want-to-never-watch-again-type passion. It fired him up and that usually takes a lot, believe me. NASCAR needs that like nothing else. So let the boys off this time. That’s my opinion. Interested to hear yours.
FIVE: GET WELL SOON, STEVE
I wanted to make mention of Steve Byrnes, who will be stepping away from his NASCAR broadcasting duties for an indefinite medical leave of absence. The popular veteran Byrnes was successfully treated for head and neck cancer back in 2013. But it seems the terrible disease has recurred and Byrnes is headed back into to treatment.
Last week Byrnes tweeted, “On behalf of my family, thank you from the bottom of my heart for all the kind expressions. Starting chemo next week and I’m ready to fight!” My thoughts and prayers are with Byrnes as he battles back again. May God bless you, Steve.
Danny starts his 12th year with Frontstretch in 2018, writing the Tuesday signature column 5 Points To Ponder. An English transplant living in San Francisco, by way of New York City, he’s had an award-winning marketing career with some of the biggest companies sponsoring sports. Working with racers all over the country, his freelance writing has even reached outside the world of racing to include movie screenplays.