ONE: LET THE PLAYOFFS COMMENCE
There’s part of me that is still very uncomfortable in referring to the next 10 weeks of racing as the NASCAR playoffs. By the same dint, using the term regular season for the first 24 weeks is equally disquieting. Not least, I suppose, because it’s still the entire field that races, unlike in other major American sports where the winners progress and the losers pack up and head home.
But the playoffs they are, I suppose, whether I choose to call them that or not.
Semantics aside, I’m actually really pumped for the next 10 weeks. None of us can be sure how the format will play out, but I think it will be fascinating to watch. I realize there are plenty of detractors out there – especially those folks who still wish the champion were crowned based on the points results of a 36-race season, but those days are long gone and the Chase (albeit in varying formats) is here to stay.
So why not try this route, especially with the added bonus of three stages of elimination and the win-and-you’re-through approach? Credit to NASCAR for giving it a go.
TWO: FINAL FOUR PREDICTIONS
Since we’re about to get underway with the 2014 iteration of the Chase, I figured I’d give you all my predictions so you can bash me with them later when I’m completely off-base.
First up I’m picking the two Team Penske drivers, Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano. Both have been lightning quick all year, with Keselowski picking up a series-best fourth victory last weekend. And over the past few weeks, Logano has been the model of consistency.
Rewind a year and you see Keselowski missing the Chase altogether and Logano essentially ending with his awful finish in the first race of the 2013 Chase.
My other two drivers are Kevin Harvick and Jimmie Johnson – Harvick primarily because he’ll get the wins when he needs them and Johnson because, well, just because he’s Jimmie Johnson.
THREE: YOUR 2014 CHAMPION: JOEY LOGANO
My tip for the title, however, is Joey Logano.
In short, Logano has had an excellent season – his best yet in his seven-year, 209-race career. Assuming he holds serve in the final 10 races, he’ll finish with career highs in just about every category. He’s already lead more laps (721) and had more wins (three) than ever before, and with a starting position of 8.5 and an average finish of 13.2 – better than in any other year those two personal milestones should fall, too. And he only needs one more top 5 and four more top 10s to equal his career bests.
It’s not been the easiest ride for Logano since his much-hyped, over-heralded arrival in Cup, but he’s finally living up to his Sliced Bread moniker and, like Keselowski did in 2012, he’s peaking at the right time. Some of this you can put down to sheer Penske power – he’s looked lightning fast all year long – but much of it is also confidence in his own skin. He had big shoes to fill stepping into Tony Stewart’s ride at Joe Gibbs Racing and it wasn’t until he made the move to Penske that he truly started to find his groove. His relationship with Keselowski has undoubtedly helped and with a talented head wrench in Todd Gordon he has all the pieces he needs to succeed. Don’t be surprised to see him emulate Keselowski and win it all come Homestead.
FOUR: MY KIND OF TOWN, CHICAGO(LAND)
Next up and race No. 1 in the 2014 Chase is Chicagoland Speedway, a cookie cutter mile-and-a-half, D-shaped tri-oval.
Defending race winner Matt Kenseth will certainly be looking for a spot in Victory Lane (for the first time in 2014) and it’s also worth noting that in 2011 (Tony Stewart) and 2012 (Brad Keselowski) the winner of the race went on to win the whole shebang.
To date, Joe Gibbs Racing has the most overall wins at Chicago with a total of four: Tony Stewart (twice), Kyle Busch (once) and Matt Kenseth (once) and you can bet Coach Gibbs would be ecstatic to see that number tick over to five this Sunday, especially given how the season has progressed for JGR overall (mediocre at best.)
I don’t hold out a lot of hope that this will be an interesting race – but here’s hoping that I’m completely wrong and we kick of the 2014 Chase in fine style.
FIVE: CHASE FORMAT EXPLANATIONS
A quick word on the new TV campaign for the Chase: so far, a two-minute explanation video and one TV spot have been released as part of a broader campaign that will include a social media push and five TV commercials. A NASCAR official release has described it as the “most engaging marketing campaign in the history of the sport” and while that might seem a little like hyperbole it’s definitely a step in the right direction.
“We made a bold decision at the beginning of the season to make our Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup all about winning,” said Brent Dewar, NASCAR chief operating officer, in the release. “Now that we’re just weeks [well, a week] away from the start of the Chase, NASCAR, working closely with ESPN, is going to market with a creative platform that is just as innovative and reflective of how important this moment is for our sport.”
And they’ve certainly got that right. This Chase is really important. If we don’t see good TV viewing numbers – and especially so for Homestead, which should be the most watched race outside the Daytona 500 – then it’s hard to know what NASCAR can do to reverse the trend. It’s certainly something to watch as we head into the playoffs.
Danny Peters has written for Frontstretch since 2006. An English transplant living in San Francisco, by way of New York City, he’s had an award-winning marketing career with some of the biggest companies sponsoring sports. Working with racers all over the country, his freelance writing has even reached outside the world of racing to include movie screenplays.