Friday Faceoff: Who Will Win the In-Season Challenge?

1) Will the current top 16 drivers be the ones to make The Chase, or will someone below the cut line earn a spot?

Michael Bellifemini: It’s going to be difficult for anyone under the line to rally to get in, so I’ll go with no. Erik Jones and Legacy Motor Club are still a bit inconsistent, while RFK Racing has been slumping this summer. On the other hand, Team Penske should have speed with the tracks coming up on the schedule, and Shane van Gisbergen is putting together impressive runs on oval tracks too. I think the current 16-driver field will most likely stay the same.

Mark Kristl: The NASCAR Cup Series Chase field is set with the current 16 drivers. Yes, Ryan Preece and Jones have shown speed, but so have the current top 16. Yes, Brad Keselowski is a former Cup Series champion, but he last won a race in 2024. The next driver in points after those three, Michael McDowell, has an 83-point deficit below the cut line. That’s more than a full race worth of points. While there are upsides to eliminating the win-and-you’re-in format, the downside is we’re unlikely to see anyone else race their way into The Chase.

Christopher Hansen: There’s a good chance for someone currently below The Chase cut line to still race their way into the postseason. Daytona International Speedway hosts the regular season finale, where anyone could win their way into The Chase like Jeremy Mayfield did in 2004. Keselowski has won at four of the five remaining tracks in the regular season in his Cup career, and he finished third at Iowa Speedway last year after sweeping the stages and leading 68 laps. RFK Racing teammate Preece has had an up-and-down summer following his points penalty for intentionally wrecking Ty Gibbs at Texas Motor Speedway, but he could make a run down the stretch. LEGACY Motor Club’s Jones, currently 17th in points, could also go on a run of solid finishes to move back inside The Chase cut line. These next five races are going to be tough to predict as to how the current top 16 shake out after Daytona, but that’s what makes this format so exciting.

Aaron Bearden: This is going to come down to the final race at Daytona, but I think we’ll see at least one change. Team Penske’s bubble duo should be able to survive from here without any mishaps. But while van Gisbergen has built himself a nice little cushion, he struggled at both Iowa and New Hampshire Motor Speedway last year, and they both fall in this five-race slate. I think Jones and/or one of the RFK Racing duo will close in on him, and it will come down to who fares better at Daytona.

2) Who will win the In-Season Challenge championship at Indianapolis: Ryan Blaney or Todd Gilliland?

Gabriel Goodman: Ryan Blaney is the clear favorite to win the In-Season Challenge and who I picked to win weeks ago, but let’s entertain this idea: In 2025, Todd Gilliland finished sixth in the Brickyard 400, besting Blaney by one spot. The year before Blaney was third, but Gilliland wasn’t far behind in sixth. In 2026, pit road has been the No. 12 team’s Achilles heel. With how track position-focused The Brickyard 400 has become, losing spots in the pits will be detrimental. Furthermore, Gilliland can beat Blaney, but he has to have a flawless day.

Kristl: Undoubtedly, it’d be cool for Gilliland to accomplish the feat, a real underdog story. But Blaney has Cup wins and a championship on his resume. He has one top five, three top 10s, and back-to-back top 10s at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. To boot, he’s bested Gilliland 119-46 in their Cup career. In that span, Blaney has 12 victories, whereas Gilliland has 17 top-10 finishes. To reiterate, it’s neat that Gilliland has advanced this far, but the Cinderella story won’t win it all.

Bellifemini: All logic would point to Blaney getting it done for the $1 million, but as this tournament has showcased, anything can happen. I’ll go outside the box and say Gilliland goes the distance and completes the Cinderella run. He’s finished sixth in the past two Brickyard 400s, so I’ll predict he puts up another strong run and claims the prize for his No. 34 team.

Hansen: Blaney. Entering this weekend, Blaney has three top-10 finishes at Indianapolis, with a best finish of third in 2024. While Gilliland has a pair of sixth-place finishes in the last two Brickyard 400s, Blaney holds the advantage over Gilliland with being the more well-rounded driver. If recent history is any indication, Blaney just needs to put together another solid outing to walk away with a $1 million dollar prize after Indianapolis.

3) Should North Wilkesboro Speedway return with another Cup points race in 2027?

Bearden: Yes. I know North Wilkesboro Speedway’s style of racing isn’t for everyone, but neither are the other few dozen tracks on the schedule. It deserves its place for the many fans (like me) who love its old-school racing.

Bellifemini: Yes, the amount of hard work that was put in to get this track renovated and ready to be raced on again should warrant a date on the schedule for the foreseeable future. The track sold out for a Sunday night race in the middle of the hot summer months, so I think that tells you all you need to know about fan interest. As for the racing itself, it was a classic North Wilkesboro race with long runs and lapped cars, so I thought it was a fine race overall.

Goodman: North Wilkesboro should absolutely return with a points race in 2027. Cars could pass, which is a luxury the Next Gen car doesn’t have at many tracks. There were multiple lines drivers ran while still making time. Tires wore and caused some to pit early, and if the caution didn’t come out during the pit cycle in stage 2, we would have seen a very interesting run to the stage end from a strategic point of view. The Cup race at North Wilkesboro is an example of how a great race doesn’t have to have many passes for the lead or cautions. It just needs to be entertaining, and Sunday night was exactly that.

4) Should the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series race at Indianapolis Raceway Park instead of Indianapolis Motor Speedway?

Kristl: Lucas Oil Indianapolis Raceway Park is perfect for the ARCA Menards Series and NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series. Admittedly, I’m not a proponent of NASCAR racing at The Brickyard. I was one of the minority who enjoyed NASCAR racing at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course. So, can NASCAR return to that layout instead? The NASCAR O’Reilly Auto Parts Series has an identity of racing on road courses. Let’s keep it that way.

Bearden: As a native Hoosier, I feel like I have to talk out of both sides of my mouth on this one. Indianapolis is an iconic track that I’m sure most would rather race at and should come with better financial opportunities in terms of both race purse and marketing potential. Leaving it is a tough sell. But man, those old IRP races were something special, and I think the current O’Reilly package would translate well to a hot, slick night on that short track. If it were up to me, they’d be racing there instead.

Hansen: The O’Reilly Auto Parts Series car is more suited for Indianapolis Raceway Park than Indianapolis Motor Speedway. With the Brickyard 400 being a crown jewel event, the NOAPS should run at IRP with the Craftsman Truck Series to give the Cup drivers more of the spotlight racing on one of the world’s most famous tracks.

Goodman: I don’t think the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series should drop Indianapolis Motor Speedway for Indianapolis Raceway Park. The O’Reilly races at the Brickyard are classics. In the last two years, we have had thrilling battles, including a last-corner pass. Despite the Cup Series struggling to put on a good show at the track in the last decade, the O’Reilly Series delivers at the 2.5-mile track, and for that it deserves a date.