11 races down, 15 to go. Can you believe we’re approaching the halfway point of the NASCAR Cup Series regular season already? We’ve now got enough races under our belt to have a decent look at how the picture is taking shape for The Chase.
With 15 races left until The Chase and approximately 42% of the regular season already on the books, some drivers are beginning to feel the pressure. As the series heads to Watkins Glen International, who most desperately needs to have a good result?
Here’s a look at the 10 drivers who badly need to have a good weekend at Watkins Glen — and why.
Shane van Gisbergen
SVG finished 17th at Texas Motor Speedway for his seventh top-20 finish of the year. He sits 19th in points, 27 behind the final spot in The Chase. Van Gisbergen has progressed nicely on the ovals this year, especially considering his Trackhouse Racing team’s struggles overall. SVG’s path to make The Chase is a lot more realistic if he can dominate on the road courses. He was second at Circuit of the Americas earlier this year, and he’ll be looking to do one better. Watkins Glen is the first of three remaining road courses before The Chase begins.
The other bubble drivers all have an advantage over him on the ovals, so he’s going to need to run the table when turning right and left, or darn close. Keep an eye on how his team decides to play the strategy here. Stage points are critical, but so is winning the race. Sometimes you have to choose. Anything less than scoring the most points this weekend will be considered a disappointment and put a huge dent in his chances to compete for a championship this season.
Kyle Busch
What a rough few years for Busch in the NASCAR Cup Series. His streak of at least one win per season came to an end in 2024 and has continued since then. His performance in 2026 indicates he probably won’t make The Chase for a second year in a row. Will he ever make it again?
Another streak is also in jeopardy: Busch has had at least 10 top-10 finishes every single year that he’s competed full-time in the series, going back to 2005. After 11 races, he has just one top 10. Rowdy isn’t eliminated from Chase contention yet. He showed some speed last week with his new crew chief Andy Street, but his last lap dust-up with John Hunter Nemechek relegated him to finishing 20th at Texas.
Busch has been very good on the road courses throughout his career but hasn’t finished in the top 10 at Watkins Glen since 2018. To keep any glimmer of hope alive for saving his season, he’ll need a strong showing this weekend.
Christopher Bell
Nobody has had worse luck lately than Bell. He left Martinsville Speedway seventh in the points and has fallen to 12th in the four races since then. The speed has still been there, but the luck has been as bad as bad can get. Bell was a popular pick to win the championship coming into the season, but he’s dug a hole that will be hard to get out of.
The Glen could be just what the doctor ordered. Despite being winless there, he’s enjoyed four top 10s in five starts and an average finish of 6.8. That’s better than any other track save for another road course, Mexico City, where he’s only one run race and finished second.
Bell can climb back up the points ladder, but he needs to start that effort this weekend.
AJ Allmendinger
The ‘Dinger has tended to be consistent enough to keep himself in contention for a postseason berth throughout the first half of the regular season. As the season goes on, he’s often fallen too far behind and missed out. This season appears to be following that trend, as Allmendinger enters Watkins Glen 20th in the points.
The Los Gatos, California native has a chance to extend his relevance this season at The Glen. It’s been a great track for him over the years with five top fives, 8 top 10s and an average finish of 10.9. He’ll be a dark horse here behind van Gisbergen, Connor Zilisch, Kyle Larson and others. But if he can pull off a top five, it could do just enough to give him hope to make the postseason. Like van Gisbergen, there’s a lot riding on this race for Allmendinger. If he doesn’t perform here, 2026 will start to look like another lost season.
Chase Briscoe
Briscoe has had a dreadful start to his 2026 season. A trendy pick to win it all, he’s mired in 16th in the points. That might sound underwhelming, but he’s clawed back from a dismal 33rd after the first four races. One would expect he’ll still make The Chase safely, but he’s used most of his mulligans and the time to perform is now.
His last two races at Watkins Glen have resulted in finishes of fifth and sixth. No doubt he’s had this date circled as one where he can continue to make up some points, but a bad day at The Glen could be catastrophic.
Michael McDowell
Spire Motorsports has been a pleasant surprise this season. Carson Hocevar is a budding star, and Daniel Suarez has resurrected his career. While both of his Spire teammates would be in The Chase if it started today, McDowell has lagged behind and is currently 23rd in points.
Road courses have shown themselves to be one of McDowell’s specialties, along with drafting tracks. All seven of McDowell’s most recent top-five finishes have come on tracks with left and right turns. His weakest body of work among those has come at Watkins Glen, where he has no top fives and two top 10s throughout his career.
The Glen is one of five races remaining in the regular season on road courses or restrictor plate tracks. If McDowell has a postseason run in him, he’ll need a good result this weekend.
Alex Bowman
The most intriguing name on this list is Bowman. The 33-year-old driver was having a rough go of it even before he missed four races due to vertigo. The missed time buried him even further in the points. When he came back at Bristol Motor Speedway, he was a mile behind. Driver No. 48 showed signs of life last weekend at Texas with a gritty third-place finish despite scoring just one stage point.
Bowman is 127 points behind Briscoe for 16th with 15 races remaining. He needs to make up an average of about nine points per weekend. That sounds doable, but it won’t be easy. He’s never finished better than 14th at The Glen. To revive his season, he’ll need to keep the momentum going and break through for his first career top 10.
Ross Chastain
Since 2023, Chastain has turned into a perennial bubble driver. He’s 18th in the points right now, within striking distance. He’s had an average finish of 13th at Watkins Glen since joining Trackhouse Racing in 2022. For Chastain, meeting that average should be the goal. Just avoid trouble and have a nice clean day. If he can score some stage points and bring home a top five, like he did at The Glen in 2024, it would be a huge success given the current state of Trackhouse.
The good news for Melon Man is that Charlotte Motor Speedway is only a few weeks away. Last year at Charlotte, Chastain wrecked what appeared to be a dominant car in qualifying. He started from the rear and went on to win the race in his backup car. The bad news? Trackhouse doesn’t currently look capable of giving him a car capable of repeating that result. Maybe he ought to beat that Trackhouse average of 13th this weekend.
Connor Zilisch
Speaking of Trackhouse’s struggles, nobody is expecting Zilisch to make The Chase in his rookie season. At the same time, I don’t think anyone expected him to struggle this much.
For Zilisch, this season is about learning and improving his craft so he can be more of a threat more often next year. Watkins Glen will provide a great opportunity for him to show his talent. While he’s never made a Cup Series start at The Glen before, he won both of his starts there in the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series.
It’s been an embarrassing season for the entire Trackhouse Racing team. Zilisch has yet to see a top-10 finish. Hell, he hasn’t even had a top 15. Last weekend at Texas, he came home 16th, his best finish of the year. We could be witnessing Zilisch starting to figure things out, and a good run this weekend will do wonders for his confidence. Â
Joey Logano
The three-time Cup Series Champion has embraced the ‘even-year’ meme that has become so infamous. His points finish in the last five even years have been first, first, third, first and second. This even year he’s dealing with a revamped championship format that might be exposing him. He’s currently 17th in the points with an average finish of 21st. Say what you will about the old playoff format helping him out, but he’s not struggled this bad in any of the last nine seasons, odd years included.
Logano won a race at Watkins Glen all the way back in 2015. He followed that up with a second in 2016. The eight races since then? One top five and an average finish of 18.5. Ouch. The Glen might not be the best place for Logano to help his prospects for the postseason. He needs to keep things clean and bring it home in the top 20. Anything better will be a bonus.
Dishonorable Mentions
This column could go on and on. Every race is important for every driver, especially those not named Tyler Reddick, Denny Hamlin or Chase Elliott.
Larson is enduring a long winless steak and looks like he’s pretty far off from repeating at the series champion. William Byron hasn’t met expectations this year. Austin Cindric is looking like he’ll be a bubble driver until the end in a contract year. Josh Berry is having a terrible season so far. Same for Noah Gragson, Nemechek and Cole Custer.
Despite a solid season so far, Ryan Preece appears to be headed for bubble trouble after he was docked 25 points for his on track incident with Ty Gibbs.
The entire Trackhouse Racing team is on this list, so might as well throw Justin Marks on too.
No matter who your favorite driver is, they all need a good run this weekend. And If that driver isn’t named van Gisbergen or Reddick, they might need to be satisfied settling for something other than a win.
Steve Leffew joined Frontstretch in 2023 and covers the Xfinity Series. He has served honorably in the United States Air Force and and lives in Wisconsin.