The wait is over for Ty Gibbs.
After getting close so many times, the 23-year-old finally unlocked the door to NASCAR Cup Series victory lane, earning his first career win in the Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway on Sunday (April 12).
Now, let’s take a deeper dive into the numbers behind the No. 54’s triumph in Thunder Valley.
6 – First-Time Cup Winners at Bristol
Gibbs joined a short list of elite drivers who got their first career Cup win at Bristol. The previous drivers to break through there are Dale Earnhardt, Rusty Wallace, Ernie Irvan, Elliott Sadler and Kurt Busch. For longtime NASCAR fans, all of those names will likely be familiar ones. Here is a comparison of the career stats for the five others who accomplished what Gibbs did on Sunday.
Based on the data, getting your first Cup win at Bristol appears to be a great indicator of long-term future success.
Earnhardt’s resume is far and away the most impressive as the eighth-winningest driver in Cup history, a seven-time champion and a larger-than-life personality and impact on the sport that is still felt today.
Even Sadler, though he won just three times, still turned in a noteworthy career as one of 10 participants in the inaugural Chase in 2004. He later experienced a career renaissance in the NASCAR O’Reilly Auto Parts Series.
Based on basic probability, Gibbs has about a 50% chance of being a future champion, but he is still well-positioned to have a great career at the Cup level.
131 – Career Starts for Gibbs
Gibbs had to wait a while, perhaps longer than he liked, for his first Cup triumph, finally achieving it in his 131st career start. It is not uncommon for Cup drivers to have to pay their dues and wait patiently for that first victory, but it took Gibbs longer than most active Cup winners.
The sample above runs the gamut of the time it takes to win in the Cup Series. There is the one extreme of Shane van Gisbergen, who took the NASCAR world by storm by becoming the first driver in 60 years to win his first Cup start at the Chicago street course in 2023.
Then, you have the other side of the spectrum with Michael McDowell, who toiled for years as a journeyman driver before finally breaking through on the biggest stage, winning the 2021 Daytona 500.
Gibbs’ number of starts before winning leans a little closer to the McDowell than SVG, but now that he has the first win, the floodgates could open for driver No. 54.
21 – Top Fives Prior to Gibbs’ First Win
Gibbs had several close calls with success before Sunday, accruing 21 top fives before taking his first checkered flag.
Of those 21, two were runner-up finishes, coming at the Darlington Raceway spring race in 2024 and the Chicago street course last season. Gibbs led at least one lap in 13 of those 21 near-misses, most notably pacing the field 102 of 500 circuits in the 2023 Bristol Night Race, but it was Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Denny Hamlin who prevailed on that night.
The 21 top fives occurred all across the Cup circuit at 15 different racetracks, which speaks to Gibbs’ growing versatility as a Cup driver.
63 – Drivers with One Career Cup Series Win
Winning a Cup race is a feat that has only been accomplished by 207 different drivers. Among that group, 63 of them have experienced Cup Series victory lane just once.
Within that group of 63, there are a few unique stories. Believe it or not, one of the 63 one-time Cup winners was also a Cup champions. Bill Rexford, the second champions in Cup history in 1950, respectively, tasted victory lane champagne just once.
Some achieved victory through a unique set of circumstances. Brett Bodine’s lone Cup win came at North Wilkesboro Speedway in 1990, but it came with the help of a potential scoring error.
In a more recent example, Justin Haley was in the right place at the right time, inheriting the lead when drivers in front of him pitted right before lightning struck near Daytona International Speedway in 2019. The lightning lingered, the rain followed and the race was called to hand Haley his first — and to date only — Cup Series win.
10 – Full-Time Cup Drivers Still Looking for Their First Cup Win
Now that Gibbs has crossed his name off the list of winless Cup drivers, it begs the question: who’s next?
The No. 54 team’s triumph leaves just 10 full-time drivers without a Cup win. Here’s a career statistical comparison of those 10.
Based on the numbers above and the equipment under the hood, I predict that Carson Hocevar will be the next first-time Cup Series winner. He has shown the raw talent and speed to contend for a win. Now, he just needs to harness it and put together a complete race.
Andrew Stoddard joined Frontstretch in May of 2022 as an iRacing contributor. He is a graduate of Hampden-Sydney College, the University of Richmond, and VCU. He works as an athletic communications specialist at Eastern Mennonite University in Harrisonburg, Va.