As with all good things, the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series season comes to an end this weekend at Phoenix Raceway. In what could be the final one-race championship, Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, William Byron and Chase Briscoe will do battle to earn this year’s trophy.
Therefore, don’t be surprised to see any of those guys in my lineups for the week. History says that, most often, one of the Championship 4 competitors pulls off a sweep. In fact, only once in the playoff era has a non-title contender won the race: Ross Chastain back in 2023.
With that in mind…
- You can’t completely focus on the four championship-eligible drivers when choosing your fantasy roster. The salary cap will not allow for you to sign them all.
- You have to be smart when it comes to choosing guys who are not able to win the championship. I’m all for big swings, but I don’t want you to go broke before you even have a chance to break even.
Phoenix itself is an odd duck when it comes to racetracks. It’s an intermediate length oval, one mile in length, with short track tendencies. While not an exact replica, races at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, Pocono Raceway, and last week’s race at Martinsville Speedway will be the ones to study before you make your picks.
Now, with all that being said, let’s look at last week’s elimination race.
Fantasy/Betting Breakdown: 2025 Xfinity 500
| Right On The Money | Lick Your Wounds |
| Todd Gilliland: +600 to finish in the top 10 | Ty Gibbs: 23.2 points scored |
| Chase Elliott: 62.2 points scored | Joey Logano: +850 to win |
| Ryan Preece: 63.5 points scored | JGR Parlay: Only Bell finished the race |
Fantasy Forecast
Denny Hamlin $12,000
“You can either get on the bandwagon, or get run over by it.”
Well, you can count me as officially on the bandwagon, folks. Hamlin just has so much going for him in terms of past and present momentum. The fact that he’s the series leader in wins, that he’s been a flat track maestro throughout his career, that he’s had a career resurgence of sorts this season – it all bodes well for him. And that’s before the recent health news of his father, emotional momentum that adds up to a number of people lining up behind a march to the championship.
The only concern I have is that Hamlin has never won at Phoenix in the Next Gen car; in fact, his most recent win here came in 2019. However, Hamlin at age 44 is a different guy than the one who’s come up short each time he’s had a shot to win.
It’s finally his year.
William Byron $11,000
The biggest threat to Hamlin this weekend is most definitely Willy B.
Byron was far and away the best driver at Martinsville last week, hands down, and as I said already, those who do well there tend to do well at Phoenix. He also has a win here in the Next Gen car.
What worries me is that Byron has been a little bit streaky this season.
After an Iowa Speedway win earlier this year, he went into kind of a hibernation of sorts, not winning until last week. Will that recent push be enough to get him over the top? Byron did win the pole at Phoenix this spring, leading 83 laps and finishing sixth.
While I think Hamlin is your champion, there’s no doubt in my mind Byron will be second to him when the checkered flag falls on 2025.
Ross Chastain $9,000
Chastain had been suspiciously quiet since he got eliminated from the playoffs a few weeks ago.
So, it stands to reason that it is time for him to re-emerge. A fourth place at Martinsville last weekend is the perfect setup for more in the season finale.
Chastain was the last man to not be in the Championship 4 to win this race, and the circumstances were pretty similar. What’s more, he also has an insane Next Gen career average finish of 9.4 here. That makes him my favorite dark horse of the week.
Kyle Busch $8,300
KFB’s recently not been too shabby, as he’s posted three straight top-20 finishes. It’s the first time he’s accomplished that since midsummer.
As bad as he’s been this year, that’s something to hang his hat on. But I think Busch desperately needs some momentum to carry into 2026.
He finished eighth at Phoenix in the spring and I like what he and Richard Childress Racing have put together lately. Look for a sneaky top 10 this week from this legend.
Zane Smith $6,300
It wasn’t that long ago that Smith won his very first NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series championship on this very racetrack.
He also grabbed a top 10 at Phoenix back in the spring. While teammate Todd Gilliland has been stealing the show lately, running second at Talladega Superspeedway last month, I think it’s Smith’s turn to shine this week.
He’s a bargain here and I like his chances.
Shane Van Gisbergen $6,000
SVG has done nothing but impress in the final few weeks of the season. The way he has managed to make his mark on ovals doesn’t bode well for the competition next season: runs of 10th at Kansas Speedway and 14th at Martinsville have been highlights for him during these playoffs.
In fact, the Kiwi has notched three top 15s in his last four oval appearances, a far cry from the struggles that kicked him out of the playoffs in the first round.
I don’t know if he’ll keep it up on this tricky track. But if he can get you a top 20 to fill out your lineup, it’s worthwhile.
Prop Bets and Locks
- Hamlin +235 to win the championship: Guys, I’m telling you, it’s his year. The way Hamlin’s been able to literally be so consistent and confident isn’t arrogance. He knows. All of you do, too. Go all in, because it’s time.
- Chase Briscoe +310 to win the championship: Briscoe enters as the complete underdog for oddsmakers. As much as I get it, it wouldn’t be the first time in this format that a driver got hot and nailed down the trophy in this “Game 7 moment.” It’s a fun, low-risk, high-reward bet.
- Larson +250 to win the championship: Larson is the only driver in the Championship 4 to win a title before, and that’s a boon in his favor. It makes him the safest option this week if you feel like playing it that way. Larson could easily pop in, dominate and leave with a second championship. I like it a lot, but not as much as the Hamlin wager.
Garrett joined Frontstretch as a news writer in 2023, and became a fantasy racing and betting writer in 2024. Hailing from the heart of coal country in southern West Virginia, he's a married father of three and a licensed Physical Therapist Assistant there.
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