And then there were four.
Chase Briscoe, William Byron, Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson will vie for the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series championship at Phoenix Raceway this Sunday (Nov. 2). Before the green flag waves over the one-mile oval in the desert, let’s break down some of the numbers and data behind the Championship 4 drivers.
1: The number of Cup Series championships between the four drivers
We’ve got a 75% chance at a first-time Cup champion this weekend. Briscoe, Byron and Hamlin will all be looking to hoist the Bill France Cup for the first time. Larson is the lone former champion still in contention, having previously won it all in 2021.
However, Larson has been unable to replicate the dominance of that 2021 championship run in the four seasons since. Furthermore, Larson is the only one of the Championship 4 to get in on points as opposed to a win in the Round of 8.
15: The number of combined 2025 wins between the Championship 4 drivers
Under this current playoff system, winning is not the only thing, but it is the biggest thing.
The whole quartet of championship contenders has collected their fair share of checkered flags over the course of the season. Hamlin leads this group — and all Cup drivers — with six victories, most recently winning at Las Vegas Motor Speedway for his 60th Cup win. Meanwhile, Byron, Larson and Briscoe all boast three wins apiece, good for a tie for fourth this year alongside Ryan Blaney. Shane van Gisbergen ranks second with five wins, and Christopher Bell is third with four.
Historically, it will take winning the race at Phoenix to win the championship. In the 11 prior finales under the current playoff format, the champion won the race all but one time. The lone exception came in 2023, when Ross Chastain won the battle, but Blaney won the war with his runner-up finish.
5: Number of Championship 4 appearances by Hamlin
It’s a tale that has been told time after time.
Hamlin, widely considered one of the best to never win a Cup championship, will be getting his fifth crack at it under the current playoff format.
The Chesterfield, Va., native was a part of the inaugural Championship 4 at Homestead-Miami Speedway in 2014, but wound up seventh in the finale and third in the standings.
Hamlin then went on a three-year streak of Championship 4 appearances from 2019-2021. In 2019, the final championship race at Homestead (until 2026), Hamlin was in a good position to contend until his pit crew put too much tape on the grill of his No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota. Hamlin’s engine began to overheat, and it opened the door for then-teammate Kyle Busch to earn his second Cup title.
In 2020, Hamlin was part of a dominant duo alongside Kevin Harvick, but he couldn’t seal the deal despite seven wins on the season. In 2021, Hamlin placed third in the final race, but he could not overcome the juggernaut that was Larson and the No. 5 team that year.
Now, after three straight years of Round of 8 heartbreak, Hamlin is back in the Championship 4. Will this be the year that he gets that elusive first championship?
7: The number of poles for Briscoe
Briscoe has been channeling his inner Ryan Newman during qualifying sessions this season.
Briscoe’s seven pole awards mark the most for a driver in a single season since Busch topped the scoring pylon eight times back in 2017. The number far surpasses Briscoe’s previous qualifying performances, as the driver of the No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota earned two poles during his four seasons at the now-defunct Stewart-Haas Racing. That stat is a testament to the No. 19 team and crew chief James Small’s ability to have the car dialed in for qualifying trim.
We have seen time and again this season how important track position and qualifying well can be. Can an eighth pole propel Briscoe to the top of the Cup Series mountain?
9.8 & 15.4: Larson’s average finish before and after the failed Memorial Day Double
One could argue that it’s been a tale of two seasons for Larson.
Across the first 12 races of the campaign, Larson and the No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports team averaged a top-10 finish. Furthermore, all three of Larson’s wins in 2025 came in that 12-race span, capped by the win in the spring race at Kansas Speedway.
On the other hand, in the last 23 races, Larson has no wins and his average finish has fallen by six spots. During that time, Larson has seven finishes outside of the top 20, compared to just two such finishes across the first 12 races of 2025.
However, as of late, Larson has generated some positive momentum with three top fives in the past four races. Can Larson regain his top form at Phoenix and become a two-time champion?
1,278: The number of laps led by Byron this season
The first step toward winning a race is getting your car out front, and Byron has done that a lot in 2025.
The driver of the HMS No. 24 Chevrolet tops all Cup drivers in laps led this season, and he has set a new career high for single-season laps led, besting his previous high mark of 1,016 laps out front in 2023.
After back-to-back third-place points finishes in 2023 and 2024, can Byron finish the job on Sunday and emerge as a Cup champion?
5: The number of combined Cup wins at Phoenix among the Championship 4
As mentioned, it will likely take winning the race on Sunday to win the Cup Series championship, so it’s worth the previous Phoenix triumphs of our championship driver.
Hamlin leads the group with two wins in the desert, though it’s worth noting that those two victories came in 2012 and 2019 in different style cars besides the Next Gen. Briscoe earned his first career Cup win at Phoenix in 2022 with SHR, Byron took the checkered flag in the 2023 spring race, and Larson’s Phoenix win came in the 2021 championship race.
Here is the closer look at the Championship 4 drivers’ Phoenix performances in the Next Gen Era (2022-25):
| Wins | Top Fives | Top 10s | Avg. Finish | |
| Chase Briscoe | 1 | 2 | 4 | 15.6 |
| William Byron | 1 | 3 | 4 | 8.0 |
| Denny Hamlin | 0 | 1 | 3 | 10.9 |
| Kyle Larson | 0 | 4 | 5 | 10.1 |
All four championship contenders have had their fair share of success at Phoenix, but who will fare the best in the desert this Sunday to win the Cup Series title?
The NASCAR Cup Series Championship race will take place this Sunday, Nov. 2, at 3 p.m. ET. The broadcast coverage will be on NBC.
Andrew Stoddard joined Frontstretch in May of 2022 as an iRacing contributor. He is a graduate of Hampden-Sydney College, the University of Richmond, and VCU. He works as an athletic communications specialist at Eastern Mennonite University in Harrisonburg, Va.