Talladega Superspeedway is certainly not the racetrack any NASCAR Cup Series playoff driver wants to go to when they’re in a points hole.
That’s especially true this year, as Talladega is the second race in the Round of 8, the penultimate round of the 2025 Cup playoffs.
A good result at Talladega could make or break the seasons of seven playoff drivers, and the four drivers below the cut line are likely sweating bullets. But one driver in particular might be in more trouble than his playoffs peers.
Both Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano are excellent superspeedway racers, and their Team Penske Fords are guaranteed to spend some time near the front. William Byron has top-seven results in the last four Talladega races.
That leaves Chase Elliott as the man who might be in the most trouble going into the weekend.
Yes, Elliott has won at Talladega in the Next Gen era. He even finished fifth there in April.
But the concerns regarding Elliott revolve more around what might happen after Talladega.
Even the best superspeedway racers know that oftentimes, their fate at Daytona and Talladega is out of their hands. Wrecks happen. Pushers can abandon their fellow drivers at a moment’s notice.
With so much up to chance, Elliott, who is 23 points below the cut line, needs luck to be on his side of Sunday.
If it isn’t, his path to the Championship 4 becomes much rockier.
If Elliott is involved in a crash or is shuffled out of line in the closing laps of Sunday’s race, he could end up finishing 15th at best and in the low 30s at the worst. From a points position, he could leave Talladega 35, 40 or even 50 points below the cut line.
That would put the No. 9 team in a huge hole going into the cutoff race at Martinsville.
Blaney has won the last two Martinsville fall races, Logano seemingly always finds a way to pull a rabbit out of his hat in cutoff races, and Byron has won at Martinsville in the Next Gen era.
Elliott has won at Martinsville in a cutoff race (2020), but the dynamics have shifted drastically since that victory. Penske will likely bring the fastest cars, and while the Hendrick Chevys won’t be far behind, it’s hard to imagine that it’s Elliott who gets over the hump and defeats Blaney and Logano, at least on pure speed.
This year has been Elliott’s first multi-win season since 2022. But some of the same issues that have cropped up since Elliott returned from injury in 2023 have lingered: a lack of speed in practice, poor qualifying efforts, questionable strategy decisions and a lack of time inside the top five.
To his credit, Elliott found a way to win at Kansas Speedway. He was the best driver in the closing laps at EchoPark Speedway in June.
But in a round where it’s Elliott against the seven other best teams in the Cup Series, the upside for those seven teams — especially Blaney, Logano and Byron — seems to be greater at the moment.
Even if he gains on the cut line at Talladega, barring a win, Elliott will not be safe at Martinsville. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Blaney or Logano win next week, nor would it be surprising to see Elliott run 15th all day at Martinsville on a weekend when Alan Gustafson missed a setup.
Elliott’s playoff run can’t be pronounced dead yet. But a poor result at Talladega could be the final nail in the coffin in a year that looked slightly more promising than last.
A member of the National Motorsports Press Association (NMPA), Samuel also covers NASCAR for Yardbarker, Field Level Media, and Heavy Sports. He will attend the University of Arkansas in the fall of 2025.