And then there were eight.
After late drama at the Charlotte Motor Speedway ROVAL and Ross Chastain’s last-lap attempt to knock Joey Logano from the final playoff spot, the NASCAR Cup Series Championship 8 is set: seven returning drivers from 2024, with Tyler Reddick replaced by Chase Briscoe.
These drivers are familiar with playoff pressure, and any of them could win the title at Phoenix Raceway in four weeks. Here are reasons each might — and might not — win it all.
Denny Hamlin (+8 points)
Why he’ll win: Speed. Denny Hamlin has been fast all year, arguably the class of the field, and finished second by a nose in the March Phoenix race. He appears more relaxed and at ease than ever before, and while of course he would love to win the one trophy that has eluded him in his first-ballot Hall of Fame career, he seems at peace with the outcome. In many ways, that makes him even more dangerous.
Why he won’t: This is Hamlin we’re talking about. Every time he’s been in with a chance of winning it all on the final race (six times in total), he’s come up short. Why would that change now?
Ryan Blaney (+6 points)
Why he’ll win: If he makes it to Phoenix, given his strong showing at New Hampshire Motor Speedway a couple of weeks ago, plus Team Penske’s dominance in general at Phoenix Raceway, he will be hard to bet against. Plus, he’s got the experience of winning it all. Hard to argue against that.
Why he won’t: Can he win at Phoenix if that’s what it takes? Blaney became the first driver in the one race wins it all era not to win the final race (he lost out to Chastain) but still win the title, and last year, he couldn’t find a way past teammate Logano in the last 50-plus laps.
Kyle Larson (+4 points)
Why he’ll win: He’s Kyle Larson. If there was a driver to pick to race for your life, it would be hard not to pick him. And let’s not forget he’s done it before at Phoenix in 2021 and was just edged out by Blaney in 2023. Plus, he finished third at Phoenix in March by a car length.
Why he won’t: Hendrick Motorsports has seemed just a tick off its very high standards. And while his overall numbers are still pretty good, does he seem like he has that title edge this year? I’d argue not. Plus, he finished seventh at New Hampshire Motor Speedway and didn’t threaten. If this were next year and we were headed to Homestead-Miami Speedway, it would be a different story.
William Byron (+4 points)
Why he’ll win: If he makes it to the final four, it will be the third straight time. So is the third time a charm? Quite possibly. And wouldn’t it be a nice act of symbiosis for him to win the first and last races of the year? William Byron has knocked loudly on the champion’s door these past two years, leading 94 laps in the final race of 2023 and 19 laps in 2024. It wouldn’t surprise me if he got it done.
Why he won’t: The aforementioned HMS/speed factor is one reason not to mention the Penske edge. And while he’s has a great team, crew chief and has run consistently well in 2025, does he have the edge he’ll need? I’m not so sure he does.
Christopher Bell (-4 points)
Why he’ll win: He won Phoenix in March as he did in 2024 and led 143 laps in the final race last season. He has also experienced the relentless pressure of the Championship 4 race twice in his five full seasons. Of all the three JGR drivers, Christopher Bell appears best placed to get it done at Phoenix given his form on this style of track.
Why he won’t: On the two occasions Bell has raced for the title in the final race, he’s finished 10th in 2022 and 36th due to brake failure in 2023. When it’s all on the line, can he eclipse the demons he’s twice faced? If the two Penske cars don’t make it, however, this picture could look very different.
Chase Elliott (-14 points)
Why he’ll win: He’s done it before in 2020 and pretty much never seems fazed in the race car. And Chase Elliott just won a race out of nowhere at Kansas Speedway, so it would not surprise me at all if he found a way to win it all.
Why he won’t: His record hasn’t been great at Phoenix over the last five trips (28th, 16th, 19th, eighth, 10th), and while he’s run well in 2025, he hasn’t had that raw speed you’ll likely need to win the title.
Chase Briscoe (-14 points)
Why he’ll win: Briscoe has had a tremendous first season for Joe Gibbs Racing, obliterating his season best marks for poles (six more than his best), top fives (by seven), top 10s (also by seven), laps led and average finish. There’s no question he’s put together a stellar year. He could well finish out the year with the biggest prize of all.
Why he won’t: While he did secure his first Cup victory at Phoenix in 2022, he finished 29th and 35th in the last two trips to the desert. Plus, he’s never raced for a title. That brings a whole new pressure of its own.
Joey Logano (-24 points)
Why he’ll win: He’s proved three times he can win it under the current format, and each time it’s felt a little like it’s come out of nowhere. Plus, the whole Penske dominance thing. If he makes it, my bet is he wins a fourth.
Why he won’t: Can he make it to Phoenix? He got a touch lucky at Las Vegas Motor Speedway last year and he’s 24 points in the hole. He’s not finished well at Talladega Superspeedway — a high-water mark of 19th in the last seven races —and finished 15th at Vegas in the spring. At Martinsville, he’s fared a lot better with top-10 runs in every race since 2019, but he may very well need to win, and he’s only done that once in 33 attempts (fall 2018).
Danny Peters has written for Frontstretch since 2006. An English transplant living in San Francisco, by way of New York City, he’s had an award-winning marketing career with some of the biggest companies sponsoring sports. Working with racers all over the country, his freelance writing has even reached outside the world of racing to include movie screenplays.