With all the news this week about the lawsuit, it feels good to get back to basics and back to the track “Too Tough to Tame.” Darlington Raceway has hosted the “Crown Jewel” that is the Southern 500 for 50 years as of Sunday night, and again, it is the start of the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs.
Darlington holds a special place in my heart, as I have always enjoyed the fact that it takes a total team effort to win here. The driver has to be skilled enough to manage his resources and stay just close enough to the outside wall to go fast and avoid a signature “Darlington stripe.” The crews have to be on it on pit road as always, but the crew chief has the important task of setting up a car with the correct balance to manage four distinct turns.
With all that in mind, it’d be smart to bet on the usual suspects this week. Guys like Denny Hamlin, William Byron and Christopher Bell are all good prospects. However, Darlington has thrown some out-of-nowhere upset winners in the past. The first that comes to mind is Regan Smith‘s lone Cup Series triumph in 2011, or Terry Labonte‘s final win here in 2003.
I recommend a good blend of stalwarts and dark horses to be successful this weekend. If you have just right mixture, it could mean a formula to print money on Monday.
Quickly, let’s look back at last week’s cutoff race at Daytona International Speedway:
Fantasy/Betting Breakdown 2025 Coke Zero 400
| Right On the Money | Lick Your Wounds |
| Ryan Blaney: 56 points scored | Carson Hocevar: -11.1 points scored |
| Chase Elliott: 55 points scored | Kyle Busch: -11 points scored |
| John Hunter Nemechek: 47 points scored | Chase Briscoe: 7 points scored |
2025 DraftKings Rules of the Road
Drivers will be awarded points based on their finishing position, position differential, fastest laps and laps led. The driver who wins the race scores 45 fantasy points, while second place gets 42 points, third gets 41 points and so on, at least through the top 10. The 11th-place finisher scores 32 points, 21st gets 21 and 31st gets 10.
However, any spots drivers lose or gain on the track are added or subtracted from their score. If the driver leads a lap, they will earn 0.25 points for each lap led and 0.45 points for each fastest lap.
Fantasy Forecast
William Byron $10,700
The 2025 regular-season champion has to be the favorite this week, because he has simply been magical at Darlington over the course of his career.
His 9.1 career average finish in the Next Gen car here is a testament to that, and he has only finished worse than 13th once over that span.
In short, outside of Hamlin, this seems like the surest way to ensure you’ll have a great points day Sunday.
Chase Briscoe $9,200
It feels unreal that it’s been a whole year since Briscoe saved Stewart-Haas Racing’s season by winning the Southern 500. He’s in far better equipment this season, so a repeat isn’t out of the question at all.
The only question mark I have for this pick is Briscoe’s very average career average finish here. 16.1 isn’t an elite number by any stretch, and he only scored a 26th place finish here in the spring. Buyer beware, but I think it’s a good pick.
Ross Chastain $8,700
I’ve often said that Ross Chastain’s driving style harkens back to a bygone era, and there’s no place that harkens back to that era like Darlington.
Let’s be frank: since his win in the Coca-Cola 600 back in May, he’s not made too much noise, as he’s had to watch his teammate win multiple races and build an insane amount of playoff points along the way.
It just feels like this team was hiding it’s time though, and I feel like he’s somewhat of a dark horse in this playoff run, but he should be a favorite at Darlington.
I think he’ll be right in the mix throughout this weekend.
Chris Buescher $8,300
It’s a little hard to fathom that, with 16 top-10 finishes this season, Chris Buescher missed out on the 2025 playoffs.
However, if there’s any team that can avenge that with a win in the next ten races, it’s Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing. And, I think Buescher is the horse that will bring that home.
While I don’t think it will come here at Darlington, I do think Buescher has a chance at a solid top five day. After finishing sixth in his last two starts at this tough old track, it’s easy to see him improving on that this week.
Ty Gibbs $6,900
If you’re a Ty Gibbs fan, I feel for you. It seems this young driver is forever relegated to watching his teammates win multiple races, while he’s had to settle for the In-Season Bracket Challenge win as the only win in the ledger for his Cup Series career.
While I don’t think he’ll win Darlington, I do think he’s a value pick at that value. He’s actually got a really good average finish here in the Next Gen car, posting a 13.9.
Again at this value, any points he grabs is certainly worth the money, and I think top 15-20 points is more than realistic and acceptable.
Ty Dillon $5,000
While his brother is racing for a championship this season, this Dillon is trying to simply put together something really decent to finish out the year.
Imagine my surprise when I saw that Ty Dillon has a really decent record at this track dating back to 2022. That year, he finished 12th, and back in the spring, he finished 16th here.
If he’s anywhere close to that when the checkered flag falls on Sunday, he was worth the money.
Prop Bets and Locks
- Four past Southern 500 winners finish in the top ten +980: This fun parlay from DraftKings is one of my favorites of the year. The first two are pretty realistic, as it has Hamlin and Kyle Larson there but the last two are interesting to say the least. Brad Keselowski does have a recent win here, but his performance in the spring of 2025 here would suggest that they don’t have the speed to do it again. Meanwhile, the fourth is two-time Southern 500 winner Erik Jones. While the performance overall for Legacy Motor Club has improved, it’s been Nemechek carrying the flag the highest.
- Four drivers with B in their name to finish top ten +400: another cool parlay that has a mix of sure things and dark horses. While it’s easy to see Byron, Blaney and Briscoe in the top ten, Josh Berry has been absolutely a non-factor since his win at Las Vegas Motor Speedway back in March. But, occasionally, he’s put together some solid runs over the course of the season. What worries me is his absolutely dreadful career average finish at this racetrack.
- Austin Dillon +1200 to finish top five: Let me take you folks back to 2020. Dillon snuck into the playoffs off the back of a win at Texas Motor Speedway, and he was a complete afterthought going into them at Darlington. Then, he came out of nowhere to finish second to Kevin Harvick in that year’s Southern 500. I think Dillon is the best underdog play available this Sunday without question.
Garrett joined Frontstretch as a news writer in 2023, and became a fantasy racing and betting writer in 2024. Hailing from the heart of coal country in southern West Virginia, he's a married father of three and currently enrolled in the Physical Therapy Assistant Program at New River Community Technical College in Beaver, WV.
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