If there’s a NASCAR Cup Series equivalent of a 16-seed beating a 1-seed in March Madness, it happened in last year’s Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona International Speedway.
Daytona International Speedway and its sister superspeedway tracks have always been kind to underdogs, but last year’s 400-miler was the upset of all upsets.
Last August, Harrison Burton left Daytona 34th in points — dead last among full-time drivers — but he left a winner.
With a push from Parker Retzlaff on the final lap, Burton roared down the backstretch to overtake Kyle Busch, and he held serve through the final two turns and the trioval to take the checkered flag for his first Cup win and the 100th for Wood Brothers Racing.
The victory vaulted Burton from dead last in the standings into the playoffs, and his win only upped the anxiety for the drivers looking to point their way into the playoffs during the following week’s regular-season finale at Darlington Raceway.
We could argue all day about whether or not Burton deserved a playoff spot with low points standing last year, but he won fair and square and earned his spot with the rules in place.
The Cup Series returns to Daytona one year after Burton’s upset Aug. 23, and there’s one question many have in mind: can lightning strike twice?
Last in points among full-time drivers this year is Cody Ware, and whether it’s to see an upset, spark chaos or expose flaws in the current playoff format, there is a handful of people either pondering the thought of a Ware win or hoping to will one into existence.
Could it happen? Never say never, no matter how longshot the odds are. After all, Ware recorded a career-best finish of fourth at Daytona a year ago behind Burton, Busch and Christopher Bell.
Ware probably won’t win, but there are plenty of drivers that can easily play the role of spoiler this weekend.
In fact, seven former Cup winners at Daytona are in a must-win situation this weekend: Busch, Chris Buescher, Brad Keselowski, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Justin Haley, Erik Jones and Michael McDowell.
And in the five years since Daytona was moved to the end of the regular season, a driver has won their way into the playoffs at Daytona three times: William Byron in 2020, Austin Dillon in 2022 and Burton in 2024.
The driver with the sweatiest palms entering Daytona has to be Buescher. He currently sits 10th in points, but with 14 winners in the first 25 races, he will be shut out of the playoffs for the second consecutive year if he fails to win Saturday. The good news for Buescher is that he has won this race in the past (2023), and all three RFK Racing cars have been strong on the superspeedways in 2025. The bad news for him is that all three RFK cars are in a must-win situation, so there’s no one who can play the role of wingman.
One spot ahead of the No. 17 in points is Alex Bowman, and he is guaranteed a berth in the playoffs if Saturday has a repeat winner. If someone wins from below the cut line, however, Bowman will need to outscore Tyler Reddick — who at one point nursed a 150-point lead over the cut line — by 29 points on Saturday to get in.
Big names and teams high in points will be missing out on the playoff action this season; the only question is how many. And the only driver who controls their own destiny Saturday is the driver that finds victory lane.
Stephen Stumpf is the NASCAR Content Director for Frontstretch and is a three-year veteran of the site. His weekly column is “Stat Sheet,” and he formerly wrote "4 Burning Questions" for three years. He also writes commentaries, contributes to podcasts, edits articles and is frequently at the track for on-site coverage.
Find Stephen on Twitter @stephen_stumpf