Did You Notice? … Five of the last seven NASCAR Cup Series races have been won by drivers outside the top five in the point standings?
Only two drivers in that group, Denny Hamlin and Chase Elliott, have broken through during this summer stretch.
Instead, the past few months have seen names like Shane van Gisbergen, Chase Briscoe and now Bubba Wallace push to the front. Drivers desperate to make the playoffs are building momentum now, strong performances they hope will translate into a September championship push.
Lost in the shuffle are the guys who might actually be in the Championship 4. Kyle Larson? He’s led just two races and 22 laps since the Indy 500/Coca-Cola 600 double gone wrong. Christopher Bell has as many finishes outside the top 20 since the Coke 600 (two) as he has inside the top five. He’s gone winless since Phoenix Raceway in March.
Chances are, when it comes to October, we’ll see those two in position to fight for a title once again. But their summer disappearance? That’s the norm, not the exception, in recent history as the real title contenders have learned succeeding in this elimination format is all about peaking at the right time.
I went back and studied the final eight races of the regular season since the current 16-driver field was created in 2014. What I discovered is the champion each season is more likely to take the summer off, suffering through a bout of dreadful DNFs than prep for the postseason by visiting victory lane.
Only once in the last 11 years has the eventual NASCAR champion won multiple races during this stretch. And that’s easily explainable: in 2015, Kyle Busch won twice as every regular season event meant something for him. After missing 11 races with leg injuries, Busch needed every point in order to leap past a hurdle all playoff competitors at that time had to: be 30th or better in the regular season standings.
Here’s a closer look at how recent NASCAR champions have fared during the final eight races in NASCAR’s regular season summer stretch.
NASCAR Champions: Races 19-26 of their seasons
| Year | Driver | Wins | Top 5s | Laps Led | DNFs |
| 2014 | Kevin Harvick | 0 | 3 | 304 | 0 |
| 2015 | Kyle Busch | 2 | 4 | 351 | 0 |
| 2016 | Jimmie Johnson | 0 | 1 | 38 | 1 |
| 2017 | Martin Truex Jr. | 1 | 4 | 531 | 2 |
| 2018 | Joey Logano | 0 | 2 | 119 | 1 |
| 2019 | Kyle Busch | 0 | 3 | 397 | 1 |
| 2020 | Chase Elliott | 1 | 3 | 79 | 1 |
| 2021 | Kyle Larson | 1 | 4 | 125 | 1 |
| 2022 | Joey Logano | 0 | 2 | 276 | 1 |
| 2023 | Ryan Blaney | 0 | 0 | 29 | 1 |
| 2024 | Joey Logano | 1 | 2 | 48 | 3 |
As you can see, more than half of the champions under this format didn’t have a win during the final regular season stretch. And some of the ones who did, like Logano last year, did so at the very beginning of it (Nashville Superspeedway in June).
The pattern makes sense to me, even with NASCAR adding playoff point bonuses in 2017, an added incentive to try harder in the regular season. Drivers fully understand the format: just like you win and you’re in for the fall, all it takes is a victory each round to advance. You don’t need to look pretty. You don’t need 10 top-10 finishes in a row. A good, well-timed win in each round will do it.
That means once you’re in, you try boom-or-bust gambles you wouldn’t dare during the 10-race postseason. You do summer test sessions at tracks that resemble the ones you’ll be driving on when it matters most. Just like NFL teams who rest their starters after clinching a playoff spot, there’s a point where it’s worth it to take your foot off the accelerator.
The upside is it gives those teams fighting for the final playoff positions a chance to shine. Wallace probably won’t come near the Championship 4, but he’s earned a crown-jewel trophy to put on his mantle. Briscoe has solidified his transition to Joe Gibbs Racing with a much-needed summer win. Even someone like Alex Bowman gets a little press before the rest of Hendrick Motorsports overshadows him.
But overall, it means the best drivers in the field may not be at their best right now. It’s a pattern the fans can sense, the latest knock against a playoff system that’s gotten some heat in recent weeks. It’s hard enough for those NFL teams who clinch a week or two before the postseason to keep up their energy; try a team that clinched in March. What are they supposed to do for five months? Playoff points can only do so much.
The solution, of course, would be to change the postseason or make the summer stretch more lucrative. The $1 million In-Season Challenge was a step in the right direction, although who knows what happens in 2026 after 32nd-seeded Ty Dillon made the finals. There needs to be more good ideas where that came from, because right now, the idea of a 36-race champion is being slowly replaced by a team that knows when and how to play its best hand.
Did You Notice? … Quick hit before taking off …
With Austin Hill’s suspension July 29, I couldn’t help but think about the move that put Dale Earnhardt on the map.
Back then, it was a clear left hook to ensure Darrell Waltrip didn’t win at Richmond Raceway. Not only was there no action taken by NASCAR, in the Earnhardt documentary on Amazon Prime Video, Wrangler’s former sponsor representative was asked about any blowback.
His answer? Simple: they told team owner Richard Childress to go out and do it again next week. It was good for business.
It was in this environment where Richard Childress Racing exploded to become one of the sport’s most legendary organizations. But the move on Saturday (July 26), as bad a look as it could be for all involved, made me think of that upward path. Part of me still thinks RCR leadership still lives in 1986. That only the type of aggression we saw from Hill earns you victories and respect on the racetrack.
Welp, times have changed. We saw it with the aftermath of Austin Dillon’s Richmond wreck last August, and we see it with the heavy-handed (and correct) decision from NASCAR to suspend Hill. At some point, RCR needs to acknowledge that we live in a different racing universe. Refusing to change is hurting no one at this point other than themselves.
Follow Tom Bowles on X at @NASCARBowles
The author of Did You Notice? (Wednesdays) Tom spends his time overseeing Frontstretch’s 40+ staff members as its majority owner and Editor-in-Chief. Based outside Philadelphia, Bowles is a two-time Emmy winner in NASCAR television and has worked in racing production with FOX, TNT, and ESPN while appearing on-air for SIRIUS XM Radio and FOX Sports 1's former show, the Crowd Goes Wild. He most recently consulted with SRX Racing, helping manage cutting-edge technology and graphics that appeared on their CBS broadcasts during 2021 and 2022.
You can find Tom’s writing here, at CBSSports.com and Athlonsports.com, where he’s been an editorial consultant for the annual racing magazine for 15 years.