Just past halfway in the 2025 season, the NASCAR Cup Series has seen 12 different winners. That means an even dozen drivers have claimed one apiece of the 16 playoff spots, leaving just four up for grabs. To make things more complicated, Austin Cindric, Josh Berry and Shane van Gisbergen have won from outside the top 16 in points, making claiming a spot based on points even more difficult.
And it’s unlikely that we have seen the last new face in victory lane this year.
Overall, 12 is an average number of winners in a full season, but 15 winners — in 2023 — is the fewest winners we’ve had through a full season in the Next Gen era. Last year featured 18, and 2022 had 19.
That’s not to say that race winners will be knocked out of the playoffs; that hasn’t happened yet in the playoff era. A couple of drivers will likely find their first wins of 2025 during the playoffs if recent history tells us anything.
So, if it’s likely that we’ll have five or six more winners this year, who will they be?
The field is perhaps more competitive than ever. There are plenty of drivers who could break through, but some are more likely than others, while some have the odds stacked against them.
Here’s a look at who’s at the top of the class, who might pull one off and who is probably waiting for next year.
A real chance:
Tyler Reddick: It’s more surprising that Tyler Reddick hasn’t won yet than it would be if he does. With at least two wins in each of the last two seasons, Reddick is strongest on the intermediate and larger ovals and road courses. There are plenty of tracks he can take the trophy from. His path isn’t without obstacles; 23XI Racing has been just the smallest step behind the last couple of years and is embroiled in a lawsuit with the sanctioning body.
Chris Buescher: Chris Buescher has a win in each of the last three seasons, though he’s only made the playoffs once thanks to late-season victories. He’s been the most consistent driver at RFK Racing and has four top 10s in the last five races. There’s a little pressure on him, as he’s only 25 points over the playoff cut line. That small margin for error could work in his favor with the team focusing on that goal, but it could be a hindrance if he lets it get to him.
Alex Bowman: Like Buescher, this year’s tight playoff battle puts extra pressure on Alex Bowman. While he tends to be streaky, Bowman is generally good for at least one win and has been strong over the last month. Plus, he’s in Hendrick Motorsports equipment, and with the other three HMS drivers already locked into the playoffs, Bowman benefits from shared information.
Ty Gibbs: In terms of equipment, Ty Gibbs is probably the best off in this group. Joe Gibbs Racing equipment is top notch, and like Bowman, all three of Gibbs’ teammates have already made the show. Being the owner’s grandson can’t hurt either. Gibbs struggled hard earlier this year and has been inconsistent, with his best races mostly on road courses. With three more on the schedule, Gibbs has a chance to outshine the road-course specialists. He can also win on an oval, of course, but the road course looks like his best bet for now.
Carson Hocevar: Carson Hocevar’s worst enemy this year has been bad luck. Some of that has been his own doing; he’s still very young and tends to be overaggressive. Still, he’s had the speed to run with the leaders often enough that it seems like a matter of time until he breaks through. He needs to be careful about making too many enemies, but he has looked like a youngster on the brink lately.
Definitely probably a maybe:
Michael McDowell: With three road courses left this season, Michael McDowell has to be in the conversation. He’s a skilled road racer and had he not had mechanical issues on the streets of Chicago, it might be a different conversation entirely. He’s also strong on the superspeedways, and it’s entirely possible that the former Daytona 500 champion could find victory lane at Daytona International Speedway or Talladega Superspeedway.
Bubba Wallace: Bubba Wallace has had some very good races this year, and he is a past winner. He’s been inconsistent in 2025, however, and that’s his biggest obstacle. Like Reddick, Wallace also faces uncertainty thanks to the 23XI lawsuit, which could understandably be a distraction for the entire team.
AJ Allmendinger: Never count out AJ Allmendinger on a road course. His charge through the field in Chicago was a reminder that he’s one of NASCAR’s most skilled at right-handers. Allmendinger has also had some strong showings on ovals this year. The speed is there, but not every week, so he needs to capitalize when it is.
Ryan Preece: With stability and equipment that’s improving, Ryan Preece is finally coming into his own as a driver. The former Modified champion is as hungry as they come and has been competitive in what’s easily his career-best year.
Kyle Busch: Until the day he retires, Kyle Busch is a threat to win. It’s extremely difficult for a driver to carry his equipment in the Next Gen era, but if anyone can do it, KFB is the one.
Brad Keselowski: Whether he’s on the downside of his career or taking one for the team, Brad Keselowski has struggled hard in 2025. But you can’t write off the former champion, because he’s hungry; an ounce of luck could be the difference for him.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.: He’s checkers or wreckers on the superspeedways, but he has enough of the former to be dangerous. If Ricky Stenhouse Jr. can avoid being dangerous.
Longshots:
Erik Jones
John Hunter Nemechek
Zane Smith
Austin Dillon
Daniel Suarez
All five of these drivers can win; Erik Jones, Austin Dillon and Daniel Suarez have won in the past. It’s mostly equipment holding this quintet back. Jones and John Hunter Nemechek have shown real improvement this year but wins look to be a year away. Dillon is good for the occasional win but isn’t a consistent threat anywhere. Suarez is the most capable in this group, but in a lame-duck season, he is in danger of being an afterthought as his teammates prepare for the playoffs.
Probably not:
Todd Gilliland
Ty Dillon
Justin Haley
Cole Custer
Noah Gragson
Riley Herbst
Cody Ware
Ty Dillon’s In-Season Challenge bracket busting aside, this group is lacking in equipment, consistency or both, and none have shown that they can overcome that.
The season is far from over, and it’s possible that the Cup Series could tie its season-high 19 different winners or even break it. There’s room for four more in the playoffs before a winner faces elimination, and there’s a possibility for both a winner to lose out and for drivers to play the spoiler and take the guaranteed advancement of a win away from the playoff drivers once the postseason gets started.
Unpredictability is good for the sport, and the more different drivers who can upstage the usual suspects, the better. There are plenty of drivers with a good chance of finding their way to victory lane. Will they make 2025 the most competitive season ever with a record 20 faces in the winner’s circle? It’s not outside the realm of possibility.
Amy is an 20-year veteran NASCAR writer and a six-time National Motorsports Press Association (NMPA) writing award winner, including first place awards for both columns and race coverage. As well as serving as Photo Editor, Amy writes The Big 6 (Mondays) after every NASCAR Cup Series race. She can also be found working on her bi-weekly columns Holding A Pretty Wheel (Tuesdays) and Only Yesterday (Wednesdays). A New Hampshire native whose heart is in North Carolina, Amy’s work credits have extended everywhere from driver Kenny Wallace’s website to Athlon Sports. She can also be heard weekly as a panelist on the Hard Left Turn podcast that can be found on AccessWDUN.com's Around the Track page.