The quest for the fastest speeds and 33 spots is upon the NTT IndyCar Series field.
The 109th Running of the Indy 500 qualifying weekend for the NTT IndyCar Series will feature 34 cars in a day-long struggle on Saturday (May 17) to determine if they make one of three different groups. First is the top 12, which will be for the fastest drivers returning on Sunday to go for the pole. If the speed isn’t there, but it’s enough to get a car safe in the field, then that’s the 13 through 30 group, or what we will call the locked-in group. Finally, the group no one wants to be a part of, but a regrettable four will find themselves there after Saturday is over – the last chance qualifiers. These four souls will need to pray to the racing gods that their machine will not be the slowest come Sunday and the Last Chance Qualifier round.
Lest we forget, those who make the top 12 also receive points for the championship.
This year comes with a lot of uncertainty. With the new hybrid technology in the cars, speeds are expected to be down due to the additional weight. Not only that, handling has been a challenge as drivers who may have had balanced rides with their setups last year, are not finding the same results now.
Drivers seemed more on edge after Fast Friday, but that was in hot temperatures. The weekend is expected to be cooler, so that might help calm the nerves.
Here are Frontstretch’s predictions for qualifying for the 109th Running of the Indianapolis 500.
A. J. Foyt Enterprises
Top driver Santino Ferrucci continued his streak of great qualifying runs with A. J. Foyt’s team last year, starting sixth. Newcomer David Malukas missed the 108th Running due to an offseason injury, so he could be rusty as he continues to settle into his new ride.
While the team continues to benefit from the technical alliance with Team Penske, one wonders if a little was lost when technical director Michael Cannon left at the end of the 2024 season. Ferrucci has not been happy with his race-ready car and doesn’t seem to have the power like he did the last two times.
With Penske support over their shoulders, both will make it into the field, just not the top 12.
Ferrucci — Locked-in
Malukas — Locked In
Andretti Global
The team that carries the Andretti name will compete for the first time without the namesake calling the shots. While Marco Andretti still gets called out of the dusty bullpen, full-time drivers Marcus Ericsson, Colton Herta and Kyle Kirkwood enjoyed quality speed on Fast Friday.
Herta and Kirkwood have been faster than Ericsson, but the Swede drew the first spot in the qualifying order. Hitting the track early pays off greatly as the asphalt swelters under the sun, however, none of that may matter if the forecasted temperatures settle in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Expect two of the four Andretti cars to make the top 12. I’m leaning Herta because he missed out just a bit on the 12th spot last year. He could use the points, too, to help his championship fight.
Andretti — Locked in
Ericsson — Locked in
Herta — Top 12
Kirkwood — Top 12
Arrow McLaren
The month hasn’t gone smoothly for Arrow McLaren. Particularly their second-year protege, NASCAR Cup Series driver Kyle Larson. The 2021 NASCAR champion has crashed twice over the last week, including a shunt on Fast Friday. At least he’s hit the wall now, so he knows what to expect.
Indy’s new hard-luck driver, Pato O’Ward, is usually fast at IMS, but he only made the top 10 in daily time sheets on Thursday. The consistency that was previously common from him hasn’t been there.
Christian Lundgaard hasn’t shown great speed on ovals yet, though he turned the seventh-fastest lap on Friday. His simulation run was pretty good, so he may end up being the only papaya driver fighting for the pole on Sunday.
Nolan Siegel is returning to try and win Rookie of the Year. He had a hellacious Month of May in 2024 and crashed during his attempt in the Last Chance Qualifier. As long as he keeps it off the wall, he will make his first Indy 500.
Larson is in a pickle. Luckily, the team didn’t have to go to a backup car, but he has found the edge twice now and stepped over. I doubt he pushes this thing to the limit again just to make the top 12. Anyway, his NASCAR commitments at North Wilkesboro make it impossible for him to go for the pole, so he will just put her in the show.
Larson — Locked in
Lundgaard — Top 12
O’Ward — Locked in
Siegel — Locked in
Chip Ganassi Racing
The pole might come down to the two most dominant IndyCar and Indy 500 teams: Chip Ganassi Racing and Team Penske.
Alex Palou has been on a tear heading into this weekend. He’s won four out of the five races to date in 2025 and has his sights set on the Brickyard. First up is putting his car on the pole, and he has the wheels to do it. The lowest he’s been on the daily charts all week is sixth. He’s gunning for that pole. Which, by the way, would pad his championship points lead by 12 more points.
The 2008 Indy 500 winner, Scott Dixon, is the best when it comes to the Speedway. The five-time pole winner bested Palou on average by placing no worse than fourth all week in speed.
Second-year driver Kyffin Simpson is up against the Speedway’s shadowy dark side. He crashed on Friday and had to go to a backup car. While Ganassi’s team will put a decent machine back under him, he has to play the rational game and assume that the speed won’t be there right away. Last Chance membership accepted.
Dixon — Top-12
Palou — Top-12
Simpson — Last chance
Dale Coyne Racing
Rinus VeeKay has a knack for getting around Indianapolis, but this is his first time not doing it with Ed Carpenter Racing. His Dale Coyne Racing Hondas have punched above their weight pretty well this season, and that might continue into qualifying. He will be fighting around that fifth row.
Rookie Jacob Abel has been mid-pack with his speed. So far, he’s proven he can make the field.
Abel — Locked in
VeeKay — Locked in
Dreyer Reinbold Racing
The only Indy one-off team in the 109th running is always a great story in May. Owner Dennis Reinbold returns year after year, committing the money and resources to get his cars ready for a single IndyCar race. It harkens back to the days of old, when teams like Team Menard and King Racing did something similar.
With 2014 Indy 500 winner Ryan Hunter-Reay returning with new teammate Jack Harvey, they have enough experience to make this race. But Harvey took a year off and notched just the 32nd fastest speed on Friday. It’ll be another shot at the Last Chance for him, just like in 2023.
Harvey — Last chance
Hunter-Reay — Locked in
Ed Carpenter Racing
Ed Carpenter’s outfit transitioned to two full-time rides for Christian Rasmussen and Alexander Rossi. So no more ride-sharing between Carpenter for the ovals and Rasmussen on the road courses. The owner has officially become an Indy-only guy.
Saying that, he hasn’t been blistering the bricks with top 12 speed recently. Rossi and Rasmussen have a shot at it, but Carpenter does not. So he just makes the field.
Carpenter — Locked in
Rasmussen — Top 12
Rossi — Top 12
Juncos Hollinger Racing
Conor Daly has been ecstatic about his car on his social feeds and interviews throughout the week. This is his first time with Juncos at Indy, and his car wasn’t high on the charts on Friday, so let’s say he locks it in. As does teammate Sting Ray Robb, who is also in his first 500 with Juncos.
Daly — Locked in
Ray — Locked in
Meyer Shank Racing
This team has been fast all year. Entering the season with a switch to Chip Ganassi from Andretti Global for technical support, Felix Rosenqvist has been in the hunt for Firestone Fast 6 appearances. Teammate Marcus Armstrong is starting to get used to his new team, after being transferred over from Ganassi.
Four-time Indianapolis 500 winner Helio Castroneves started his qualifying career at IMS in great form, winning four poles in his first 10 attempts. But since 2017, he’s made the Top 12 three times, and not since his winning year in 2021. I say he snaps out of the funk this year and is in the top 12 once again. In fact, due to the Ganassi connection, expect two of the three Meyer Shank boys to be in there.
Armstrong — Locked in
Castroneves — Top 12
Rosenqvist — Top 12
PREMA Racing
The new team on the block is showing up with an Indy veteran and a rookie. Callum Ilott got to sub for Malukas at McLaren last year, and now leads the first-year team on their quest to make the Indianapolis 500.
Rookie Robert Shwartzman is unfazed by the oval, his first in his career. On Friday he ran the 13th fastest lap, pretty impressive. I think both will lock themselves in, but deep in the field.
Ilott — Locked in
Shwartzman — Locked in
Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing
This cannot be happening for a third year in a row. But it seems it is.
Graham Rahal, a man who has experienced the dreadful Indy bump in 2023 and was saved by Siegel’s crash last year, is looking like it will be a three-peat of his own. He has struggled with speed again this month, and whatever momentum he earned at the Sonsio Grand Prix a week ago will be lost with a terrible qualifying effort.
Two-time Indy 500 winner Takumo Sato set the fastest speed at the open test, but summarily wrecked his ride. The back-up car hasn’t been as fast, but Sato can get it down. He’ll lock it in.
Rookie Louis Foster hasn’t appeared rattled by the Speedway’s walls. He’s done his job and is in the middle of the pack in speed. At Indy, when you have that type of car, that’s fine; getting in the show as a rookie is all that matters. Just ask Siegel.
Devlin DeFrancesco returns to Indianapolis after a gap year without a ride. He may be tracking with Rahal on being able to trim out all the way. I’m leaning towards him being part of the Last Chancers.
DeFrancesco — Last chance
Foster — Locked in
Rahal — Last chance
Sato — Locked in
Team Penske
Last year Frontstretch wrote that Team Penske’s trio was looking for revenge after a miserable qualifying experience in 2023. Oh boy, did they get it. All three cars were on the front row, a first for the operation since 1988. Scott McLaughlin won the first spot with a record speed, beating Will Power, the all-time IndyCar pole winner who has yet to grab one for the Memorial Day Classic.
There doesn’t seem to be much difference. As mentioned in the Ganassi section, the battle for speed is coming down between these two longtime rivals.
All three Penske rides, with Josef Newgarden the fastest on Friday, will be in the fight for the pole.
McLaughlin — Top 12
Newgarden — Top 12
Power — Top 12
Catch Indianapolis 500 qualifying Saturday (May 17) at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway from 11 a.m. – 1:30 p.m. (FS1), 1:30 – 4 p.m. (FS2) and 4 – 6 p.m. (FOX). The run for the pole and last chance will start Sunday (May 18) on Fox.
Tom is an IndyCar writer at Frontstretch, joining in March 2023. Besides writing the IndyCar Previews and frequent editions of Inside IndyCar, he will hop on as a fill-in guest on the Open Wheel podcast The Pit Straight. A native Hoosier, he calls Fort Wayne home. Follow Tom on Twitter @TomBlackburn42.