While the race at Texas Motor Speedway this past weekend was certainly more fun than anticipated, it’s time to head to arguably the most fun and competitive track on the current NASCAR Cup Series schedule.
The drivers, teams and most of the fanbase of the Cup Series hold this 1.5-mile oval in high regard, and for good reason. Kansas Speedway has provided some thrilling finishes, fantastic racing and has done so for most of its existence and Sunday (May 11) should be no exception.
Much like other weeks where these intermediate tracks are the star of the show, you’ll need to look back at tracks like Homestead-Miami Speedway and Las Vegas Motor Speedway to find the right lineup combinations to put you over the top. I also recommend that you study the past races here at Kansas to make your decisions.
Drivers like Kyle Larson, Tyler Reddick, Ryan Blaney and William Byron should all be somewhere in your headspace, because they’re always fast on this type of track. Taking flyers on drivers who don’t have the results isn’t advised, and neither is reading too much into stats from the Gen 6 or Gen 5 eras. That comparison is more apples to bananas than oranges.
If you follow those guidelines, you’ll be standing in Victory Lane in your fantasy leagues and making money hand over fist on Monday.
With that in mind, I hope things don’t go the way they went for me regarding my bets and fantasy team at Texas. I made no money and finished near the bottom in my league this past week. Take a look and feel my misery, folks.
Fantasy/Betting Breakdown: 2025 Wurth 400
| Right on the Money | Lick Your Wounds |
| Tyler Reddick: No. 1 overall pick/ +700 to win: finished 21st | |
| Alex Bowman: -15.1 points scored (agony) | |
| Ryan Preece +1400 to be top finishing Ford driver |
Now, let me be clear: it wasn’t all bad. Chase Elliott grabbed me 40.6 points, but I was so disgusted by the lack of pace in that No. 9 car, it doesn’t feel right to put the run he had in any category that involves being right. Last Sunday was my worst in a while, so anything my lineup does this week can’t be much worse.
DraftKings Rules of the Road
Drivers will be awarded points based on their finishing position, position differential, fastest laps and laps led. The driver who wins the race scores 45 fantasy points, while second place gets 42 points, third gets 41 points and so on, at least through the top 10. The 11th-place finisher scores 32 points, 21st gets 21 and 31st gets 10.
However many spots drivers lose or gain on the track are added or subtracted from their score. If the driver leads a lap, they will earn 0.25 points for each lap led and 0.45 for each fastest lap.
Fantasy Forecast
Kyle Larson ($11,000)
We very easily could be talking about Larson winning the last three races in a row. He was awesome until very late at Texas, was surprisingly solid at Talladega Superspeedway, and won at Homestead.
The facts are the facts and Larson is that driver. He wins this race and continues his march towards another championship.
Ross Chastain ($8,700)
It appears to me that this group has finally found its footing.
Ross Chastain and the No. 1 Trackhouse Racing team grinded their way to a podium finish at Texas despite being dreadful when they unloaded. Now it’s time for them to go out and start racking up more good finishes.
Now, bear in mind, there is an element of inconsistency here that buyers should be wary of. Chastain hasn’t shown real race-winning speed yet, but he’ll be on the podium again this week.
After all, he’s won here before in the Next Gen car, and that is a key piece of information regarding this pick.
Kyle Busch ($8,300)
I legitimately thought Kyle Busch was going to win at Texas when I saw him riding along in third late. I got all the feelings that one might get at the prospect of another win for the living legend.
I should’ve known better.
One uncharacteristic mistake and spin led to getting caught up in a multi-car crash and just like that, it was the same old, same old. He’ll do better this week, as the closest he came to winning again outside Circuit of the Americas was at this track last season.
Busch has shown that his team has race-winning equipment most weeks, but setting your expectations for a top 10 is most reasonable.
Chris Buescher ($8,000)
I’m not going to sugarcoat this: Kansas owes Chris Buescher.
Last season, in this very race, Buescher was the unfortunate runner up in one of the closest finishes in the history of the sport. He stands a good chance to win.
However, I’m iffy on this pick. RFK Racing has looked kind of awful since Bristol Motor Speedway, outside of Ryan Preece’s incredible career revival. I look for Buescher to place somewhere between 10th-15th on Sunday.
Brad Keselowski ($7,000)
As worried as people are about Elliott’s situation, I’m genuinely more worried about Brad Keselowski’s.
He has no top 10s, barely any laps led, and sits below 30th in points, all historic lows for the 2012 champion. So why then pick him?
I’m not ready to quit on him simply because the problem has been just as much bad luck as bad race cars. Multiple times this season, he’s been running well just to be caught up in a brutal race-ending crash.
Extreme buyer beware on this one, but at $7,000 he is a bargain who may be worth it if he can finish the race.
AJ Allmendinger ($6,100)
Welcome back to the lineup, AJ Allmendinger.
While he’s not nearly as good here at Kansas as at Homestead, the similarities between that place and this one are evident.
Don’t get me wrong, don’t expect a top-10 finish from him. He has a career average finish of 20.8 here, and that’s where we’ll see him. Every point matters, and Allmendinger is going to grab some, maybe enough to put you over the edge.
Prop Bets and Locks
- Larson (+425) to win: The only thing that scares me is that it’s almost too obvious. It’s insane how confident I am with this, and after last week’s shenanigans, I need the payday.
- Christopher Bell (+105) over Denny Hamlin: Bell has certainly cooled since rattling off three straight wins to start the year. That’s a matter of perspective, of course, because he’s rattled off top-10 finishes in four of his last five starts. Hamlin is coming off a bad race at Texas, so momentum is in Bell’s court this week. He beats Hamlin easily.
- Elliott (+700) to finish as top Chevrolet driver: I talked a lot of smack in the intro about how bad Elliott was at Texas, and I meant it. But he finished third in this race a year ago. A lot of eyes are on this team now, and the 2020 champion and crew chief Alan Gustafson have been known to answer the bell when challenged. I don’t know if I’m going to take this bet, but don’t be afraid of it. Elliott didn’t just forget how to drive a racecar, any week could be the one where he bounces back.
Garrett joined Frontstretch as a news writer in 2023, and became a fantasy racing and betting writer in 2024. Hailing from the heart of coal country in southern West Virginia, he's a married father of three and currently enrolled in the Physical Therapy Assistant Program at New River Community Technical College in Beaver, WV.
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