Every year, as this date approaches, excitement, anticipation and adrenaline begin to rise. It can only mean one thing — the Month of May is here. Kids in school might be clamoring for the freedom of summer, but fans of motorsports are thirsting for high speeds around the Indianapolis Motor Speedway. There’s just no other time more electric than this. And it all begins this weekend with the NTT IndyCar Series’ Month of May kickoff event: the Sonsio Grand Prix on the IMS road course.
This race, though easily overshadowed by the legendary Indianapolis 500 later in the month, still holds its own significance. While the massive shadow of the Borg-Warner Trophy looms over everything in May, don’t minimize this event as it still is one of 17 races on the IndyCar calendar and valuable points are on the line. It’s another key chapter in the 2025 championship battle, one that Alex Palou firmly controls. By Saturday evening, we’ll have a clearer picture of who has tried to rise to challenge Palou—before everything shifts toward the biggest race in the world, the 109th running of the Indy 500.
Last Year
Palou dominated this event in 2024 after leaping the polesitter, Christian Lundgaard. Once in front, he managed his car and strategy flawlessly, and cruised to victory by over six seconds ahead of Indy Grand Prix master Will Power. That result mirrored the history of this race — often clean after turn 1, strategic and once things settle down, pretty tame. This time, though, things may look a little different.
New Rule, New Opportunity for Excitement
To spice things up and balance the impact of the hybrid power unit’s weight, which is believed to have dulled on-track action since its debut at Mid-Ohio last year, IndyCar is changing its tire strategy rules. Previously, teams were required to use both the primary and alternate tire compounds once. Now, for the Sonsio Grand Prix, a two-stint rule will be in place.
That means drivers must run at least two stints on each tire compound, encouraging at least three pit stops and ensuring four brand new sets of Firestones are available for the race. The green flag lap requirements will still apply.
Why is this important? Because much of the season’s best racing has occurred around pit windows. At Long Beach, Barber and even The Thermal Club, pit cycle shakeups created unpredictability and passing opportunities. By ensuring a minimum of three pit stops and depending on which compound is more preferred, IndyCar is hoping to bring more on-track action to the viewers.
As it stands, this will only apply to this race, but might be implemented if the results are promising.
Survive Turn 1
Guess how many cautions have happened over the course of the first four races?
The answer: one.
Now excuse me while I help up every NASCAR fan who passed out.
That’s right, only one, and it was during the St. Petersburg opener on the first lap. Since then, nada.
Impressive. That could be the sign of clean and respectful driving, or worse, taking it easy during stints to preserve tires to make the end of the race. Also, with no oval before Indianapolis, there isn’t the overt risk of constant side-by-side action that will happen later in the year.
That streak could continue this weekend, as after the first lap, the fields generally spread out as the course is pretty friendly for drivers making mistakes due to its wide run-offs. However, that assumes the field makes it past turn 1. The dive into the 90-degree right-hander can be vicious, and last year, three cars had to eject off their line and drive through the grass.
Maybe the Grand Prix runs yellow-free and the streak continues. But don’t expect it to last for the Indy 500 — no way.
Lundgaard’s First Win
I’m calling it now. Lundgaard will snatch up his first win with Arrow McLaren on Saturday. With three straight podiums, including his runner-up at Barber, the Dane is on the verge of jamming his No. 7 Chevy into victory lane.
It’s not a stretch to make this prediction. He ran his first IndyCar race in 2021 with Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing at the second Indy Grand Prix, impressively qualifying fourth and finishing 12th. He hasn’t finished outside the top 10 since then, compiling two podiums and two additional top fives as well as a ninth over five races.
Oh yeah, I feel good about this one, and if he does nail it down, Palou might not be running away with this title anymore. I get the sense that once Lundgaard gets his first win with McLaren, more will quickly follow.
VeeKay is Surprising
In 2021, Rinus VeeKay won his first, and still only, IndyCar race at the 2021 Indy Grand Prix. Then he became very inconsistent, only finishing one more time in the top 10, with a sixth at the second race in 2022.
However, the last driver to get a ride for the year is having a solid start in his Dale Coyne Racing Honda. He added a fourth from Barber to his ninth at St. Pete, and his team has found some success at IMS, including finishing second with Romain Grosjean in the race VeeKay won.
This year, VeeKay has been one of the best feel-good stories of the year, and that has the potential to continue going into May.
ECR Has Its Man
The signing of Alexander Rossi to Ed Carpenter Racing has flown under the radar somewhat, as the man who replaced him at Arrow McLaren is coming ever so close to the first win for the No. 7 car.
Rossi’s 2025 may not be knocking on wins quite yet but he’s been very consistent. ECR has put in a lot of effort over the offseason to give the American a fighting chance on road and street courses, and the results show that it worked. In the first four races, he finished 10th, ninth, 15th and eighth. While that is on par with what Rossi did this time last year — six top 10s in the first seven races — this is a step up for Carpenter. Between the three drivers on the squad in 2024, they didn’t earn three top 10s until the ninth event at Mid-Ohio.
Now they roll into IMS, where Carpenter has always prided himself on putting quality setups and rides under his drivers, and where Rossi has excelled. Since his rookie year, when he hounded Power into a mistake down Hulman Boulevard, he’s run in the top 10 in 11 of his 14 tries, and four podiums, including his last win in 2022.
It’s likely the top 10s continue on Saturday.
What else?
Five-time Indy Grand Prix winner Power is ninth in points, but if not for a 26th at St. Pete would be in the top five, no doubt. He’s heading to IMS with two straight fifth-place runs and a runner-up at this race a year ago. His Month of May might kick off well this weekend.
Nolan Siegel earned his first top 10 on a road course at Barber. This race was one of five he didn’t contest in 2024, but does he string together his first pair of back-to-back top 10s?
It’s not time to worry about Pato O’Ward and his title chase. But he’s risking becoming the “second guy” at McLaren if he doesn’t find the consistency like his new teammate Lundgaard.
Andretti Global driver Marcus Ericsson isn’t matching the finishes like his other teammates. His only top 10 was at St. Pete and he sits 13th in the standings. This hasn’t shaped up to be a great start like he had hoped after a winless 2024.
Frontstretch Predictions
Time to gloat. For the people that read this, I want you to go back to the Barber Preview piece, scroll to the bottom and scan what I put down as the podium for the race.
I’ll wait.
Oh here, let me help.
Welcome back.
I’m pretty amazing, aren’t I? Well, at least that one time. After two and a half years of doing these previews, I finally nailed an entire podium correctly. You can bet your Sunday brunch I’m going to use that in my next “discussion” with my wife when she says I’m not always right. Well, guess what, I was last week.
My confidence is sky high heading into this weekend’s picks. I’ve already given you a clue on who I am choosing for the win, it’s Lundgaard. Last week, I wrote how he is exceptional on permanent road courses, and that held true. Add his prior results and it all makes sense.
That’s not to say I will leave Palou out. Like I said before Barber, I’m riding him until he finishes third. But this time I chose him for the runner-up.
- Lundgaard – first win and wake-up call that the championship isn’t a one-man runaway.
- Palou – he laughs at the insinuation that the championship “battle” is on with Lundgaard.
- Power – I wanted to go with Rossi here, but don’t think his ride is podium material yet, so go with five-time at Indy GP.
The Sonsio Grand Prix at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course gets underway Saturday, May 10, at 4:30 p.m. ET on Fox.
Tom is an IndyCar writer at Frontstretch, joining in March 2023. Besides writing the IndyCar Previews and frequent editions of Inside IndyCar, he will hop on as a fill-in guest on the Open Wheel podcast The Pit Straight. A native Hoosier, he calls Fort Wayne home. Follow Tom on Twitter @TomBlackburn42.