When Max Verstappen won that Abu Dhabi race in 2021, he exclaimed, “I want to stay with you for the rest of my life.” He held the firm belief that, “There’s no reason to leave, ever.”
Fast forward a few years, and Red Bull Racing’s founder, spiritual leader, and financial backer, Dietrich Mateschitz, has passed away, the team has been rocked by internal controversies, while multiple key members have moved on. Does Verstappen still feel so positive? Could he actually jump ship? We look at all the pieces on the chessboard to give a realistic appraisal.
Changes at Red Bull
While things have gone quiet since the allegations of sexual misconduct against team principal Christian Horner, questions remain about what’s going on behind the scenes in Milton Keynes. The shock departure of Adrian Newey drew all the attention, but there have been several other high-profile losses, including Rob Marshall to McLaren, most likely the architect of that team’s flexi-wing innovations, and Jonathan Wheatley, a centerpiece of Red Bull’s pit crew training program. Bahrain pit stops were a disaster. Coincidence?
Friction between Horner and Verstappen’s father, Jos, adds a personal element to the situation, leading Max to publicly state, “My dad is not a liar.” Having to defend one’s father, for whatever reason, sounds a far cry from the group love-in of 2021.
When Dietrich Mateschitz passed away in 2022, this columnist thought, “They need a spiritual successor, or it’ll all go south.” Sadly, it seems that a successor wasn’t waiting in the wings, and we’ve seen some ugly power struggles as a result. The Thai Yoohidhya family publicly supported Horner, while the Austrian wing seems bent on something different – the latter being blamed for Horner’s public shaming. It seems to be going the way that was feared.
Adrian Newey has said on several occasions that he hates politics or racing teams run by corporate interests. He prefers a team focused on pure racing, just like Mateschitz did. His departure, therefore, spoke volumes.
Where is Max in All This?
Whether you like or dislike Max Verstappen, there’s one thing no one can deny: he wins, and he’s ruthless at it. That might sound like a no-brainer, but it’s the hallmark of true top-tier drivers. Lewis Hamilton, Fernando Alonso, Michael Schumacher, Ayrton Senna. They were all ruthless in their way. Winning was everything. Alonso, Senna and Schumacher all got their fair share of negative attention for their on-track behavior. Why? Because they fight/fought like there’s no tomorrow. Upset the media? Who cares? Look at the result.
Trained by his dad, Verstappen is cut from the same cloth. He’s bent on winning, and if he feels his chances at Red Bull are declining, he’ll look for other options. Forget inside power struggles. Forget loyalty. Forget rumors. If he thinks his chances of winning are better elsewhere, he’ll move. It’s just that simple.
The only other outcome is full retirement, to become an e-racer or full-time dad, but that’s outside the scope of this piece.
So, Why’s He Still There?
Picture this: Mercedes comes out with another killer engine for 2026, and they’re embarrassing the field, just as they did in 2014. That’s the team a four-time world champion wants.
Alternatively, McLaren is running the same Mercedes engine, but they’ve done a better job with the aerodynamics, so they’re running at the front. The only question for McLaren: do we drop Norris or Piastri to make room for Max?
Hold the phone, Adrian Newey has found the best answer for the new aero regulations – yet again – and Honda has a decent engine, so it’s the Aston Martins taking all the glory. Incidentally, Alonso’s contract expires at the end of 2026, so there’s a spare seat. No need for Lawrence Stroll to ditch his son.
Wait a minute, Red Bull hasn’t been sleeping. Their partnership with Ford has created a strong power plant, and the design team has found its feet after Adrian Newey’s departure. They’re still in the game and proving they can fight without Newey.
Any of those scenarios could turn out to be true. Or none of them. We just don’t know, and Max Verstappen doesn’t either. Why would he make a change now? Why would he roll the dice when such a big change is coming?
Of course, we’re forgetting the simple aspect of the equation. Verstappen did just win a driver’s championship with Red Bull in 2024. It is not like the team has suddenly become Manor. And he just won a race two weeks ago in Japan.
The safe bet is that Max stays where he is until at least the end of 2026. That’s the time we should all be looking at what he decides to do regardless of whatever panicking he and the team are currently doing.
What Would Red Bull Do?
Mark Webber, as a guest on the FFS podcast, raised an interesting point. How would Red Bull recover if Max left? After spending so many years developing Verstappen-friendly cars, could they just change? In a word: no.
There are two parts to that question. Firstly, attracting another top-tier driver. And, of course, developing a drivable car.
The first is not so difficult. Whatever their challenges, Red Bull remains one of the top-tier teams, with staff, budget and facilities to boot. Let’s not forget, they were successful before Verstappen came along, with Sebastian Vettel also claiming four world titles.
They’re also blessed with one of the most talented all-around lineups in the sport’s history. Lando Norris, Oscar Piastri and Kimi Antonelli are all being touted as future world champions. Red Bull would have a strong list of applicants, make no mistake.
The trouble lies with the second point, and it depends on when Verstappen departs, if, indeed, he does. The team has had a single focus for over ten years, so switching to a new design philosophy would be more than a day’s work. Of course, it’s an extremely talented team, which is why the timing would impact the outcome.
The problem for Red Bull: changing direction is a considerable task. Just ask Mercedes. The team would be starting a new project, and that could take several years, just as we’ve seen with the silver arrows. Has Red Bull planned for that already?
Many questions surround the tenure of Verstappen at Red Bull. But let’s not get too hasty. There’s some time before it all comes to a head, one way or another.
Peter Molloy began following Formula 1 during the 1985 Australian Grand Prix. He cheered for a certain Ayrton Senna, who was driving the same black and gold colors as a toy F1 car that Pete had been given. Pete continued to be a fan of Senna throughout his childhood. Fast forward many moons, and Peter now combines significant journalistic experience with decades of watching F1 to cover the latest on-track and off-track action.