“The beating heart of Rome is not the marble of the Senate; it’s the sand of the Colosseum” – Gracchus (Derek Jacobi), Gladiator
The NASCAR Cup Series returns to its very own colosseum this weekend at Bristol Motor Speedway, where battle lines are always crossed and swords are always drawn.
Bristol has always had a special place in the heart of fans and drivers around the sport and for good reason. A long list of classic moments can be recited on demand by most, as the close-quarters racing has been the basis for bumpers, punches and even helmets being thrown throughout its history. I bring a heck of a winning streak to the table alongside Denny Hamlin to a track that’s also been good to me in the past.
The key to Bristol betting and fantasy teams is simple: pick the guys who’ve ran dirt or grassroots asphalt short tracks in their development period. Drivers like Ryan Preece and Josh Berry are picks on par with guys like Kyle Larson and Christopher Bell.
Do not bet on rookie drivers, though; they barely do well here. Trust statistics as much as possible as well.
Fantasy/Betting Breakdown: 2025 Goodyear 400
| Right on the Money | Lick Your Wounds |
| Denny Hamlin (+650) to win | Chase Briscoe (won’t be picking him for anything again for a while) |
| Ty Gibbs (+120) (ninth) over Kyle Busch (10th) | Brad Keselowski, -3.2 points earned |
| Hamlin: 52.7 points scored with win |
That’s right, I’m still on a roll heading into Bristol. I hit on two legs of my betting slip, which made the pain of watching Briscoe run 30th for most of the day a little easier to bear. Shout out to Gibbs for getting his first top 10 in a really long time. I didn’t think I was going to get that one.
DraftKings Rules of the Road
Drivers will be awarded points based on their finishing position, position differential, fastest laps and laps led. The driver who wins the race scores 45 fantasy points, while second place gets 42 points, third gets 41 points and so on, at least through the top 10. The 11th-place finisher scores 32 points, 21st gets 21 and 31st gets 10.
However many spots drivers lose or gain on the track are added or subtracted from their score. If the driver leads a lap, they will earn 0.25 points for each lap led and 0.45 for each fastest lap.
Fantasy Forecast
1. Kyle Larson, $11,000
I was certainly torn between driver No. 5 and his buddy Hamlin, but I’ve got a better feeling about Larson. The fact is, Larson had a horrible time at Darlington last week, but rarely does he have two really bad weekends in a row.
I saw a lot of folks questioning the best driver in the world moniker attached to the 2021 champion, but I think he answers the bell and silences the doubters this week.
He’s expensive but has always run strong there, with plenty of wins and top 10 finishes to his credit. This is a no brainer.
2. Chase Elliott, $9,600
Here’s another driver who’s been dogged on social media all week. Chase Elliott took a controversial stance on the whole throwback weekend festivities, saying it’s “run its course.”
While that’s a matter of opinion, what isn’t is that Elliott is pretty darn good at Bristol. While he only has one win, coming in the 2020 All-Star Race, he’s usually in the top three or five positions when the checkered falls. I expect the same from him.
Look for a third- to seventh-place run for the No. 9 team. It’s going to win at a short track this season, but not this one.
3. Chris Buescher, $8,300
Chris Buescher’s been very steady all season, leading RFK Racing with seven top-10 finishes in the nine events run so far.
It seems like another win is coming for this group soon, and that it could come at any moment. Bristol could absolutely be that place, but I don’t think it will, not yet. He will likely finish somewhere between second and eighth, keeping his consistency going.
He does have a win there, so don’t be surprised if he’s holding the sword in victory lane at the end of 500 miles.
4. Tyler Reddick, $8,200
It’s been kind of a weird season for the No. 45 team. One second, it looks like the Championship 4 contender it was last season. The next, it looks lost and confused.
Both of those things happened last week at Darlington, as Tyler Reddick had race-winning speed but ultimately succumbed to tire wear. That allowed Ryan Blaney to get by, and a late-race restart turned a possible runner-up finish into a fourth-place run instead.
Buyer beware: Reddick does not have the most flattering record there. He has one career top five but has never finished better than 15th since joining 23XI.
5. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. $6,500
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. has a pretty good record here considering some of the equipment he’s been in. He has a 19th-place career average finish and finished in the top 10 there as recently as 2023.
He’d probably be better off if this race was run on dirt again, but with his dirt background and track record, he’s a good fit at the salary he’s charging.
You can expect a surprise top 12-20 finish out of him this week.
6. Todd Gilliland $6,200
Ah, Front Row Motorsports, my beloved. We’ve seen some great runs out of both Todd Gilliland and teammate Zane Smith this season, and last week it was Smith who put together a solid day.
This week, I expect the flagship No. 34 to be a factor. Gilliland has a pretty good background on dirt, as he won the NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series race at Knoxville Speedway a few years ago. Based on that, I like him this week.
No harm, no foul in going with him this week. Expect a top 20-25 run.
Prop Bets and Locks
1. Buescher (+550) to finish top three: Buescher is on a roll as far as consistency. This team is on the verge of taking the next step into being a winning race team. That next step is a podium, which is easily attainable for this group.
2. Kyle Busch (+105) over Ty Gibbs (-145): I won by taking Gibbs last week, but this week I have to go with Busch. This is his playground, as he has won at Bristol a whopping nine times. I know I am cursed when it comes to picking Busch, but there is little chance that Gibbs wins this matchup.
3. Ty Dillon (+1,700) to finish top 10: This is my fun bet of the week. We can all agree Ty Dillon has exceeded expectations a bit this season. I don’t have a lot of faith this will happen, but it’s Bristol; you truly never know. It’s usually a race of attrition, and Dillon could be one of the last few standing if he makes it 500 miles. Low risk, high reward.
Garrett joined Frontstretch as a news writer in 2023, and became a fantasy racing and betting writer in 2024. Hailing from the heart of coal country in southern West Virginia, he's a married father of three and currently enrolled in the Physical Therapy Assistant Program at New River Community Technical College in Beaver, WV.
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