The Underdog House: AJ Allmendinger Takes His Talents to South Beach Once Again

Top Dog: AJ Allmendinger

I’m sorry if that title brings back traumatic memories for Cleveland Cavaliers fans (or any NBA fan base other than the Miami Heat for that matter).

Yet, in a city where the “Heat” are know to reign, AJ Allmendinger stayed as cool and calm as palm trees en route to another top 10 at Homestead-Miami Speedway with a seventh-place result on Sunday (March 23).

A complete shift in Homestead-Miami’s calendar date back to the spring, the conditions left by a raging wildfire, and the rising tides of a young season were all variables to drivers’ success this weekend, but Allmendinger rode the wave of momentum to land as the top dog.

Allmendinger started off the weekend on a heater by qualifying 10th, his best start of the season. He immediately set the tone in the first stage by securing four stage points in seventh.

Fears revolved throughout the No. 16 camp during stage two when Allmendinger reported tire issues and uncharacteristic, loose-handling conditions on his car. However, he was able to avoid a significant downward plunge by slotting into 13th by the end of the second stage.

The Los Gatos, Calif., native roared back to sixth in the final stage when the caution came out with just over 50 laps to go. A 51-lap run to the finish tested the grip of Allmendinger’s Chevrolet, but he held strong to score his second consecutive top 10 result.

Though only six races are in the books for 2025, Allmendinger has quietly worked his way into the playoff conversation should spots be available on points. He currently sits 20th in the standings, just four points back of the playoff cut line.

It puts the veteran driver at a crossroads for which road he will travel down as the season plugs along. Compared to his last full-time season in 2023, Allmendinger sat in 21st after six races, exactly where he finished in points that year.

For now, Allmendinger can build on LeBron James’ infamous quote of how many titles the Miami Heat would win, only this time, Allmendinger can claim a top 10 streak that has actually come to fruition.

How many top 10s in a row does he have in South Beach? Not one, not two, not three, but four, and counting.

Notable Underdog Runs

Subtly rounding out the top 10 in Miami was Justin Haley, scoring his first top 10 of the season.

Outside of a skirmish with Ty Gibbs at The Clash at Bowman Gray Stadium, quiet has been the epitome of Haley’s season. He minded his own business in the first two stages by running in the top 20, holding steady as the race played out. Over the final 51-lap run, the No. 7 Spire Motorsports Chevrolet slowly came to life, resulting in the Winamac, Ind., native notching his best finish at the 1.5-mile track by far (his previous best finish was 23rd).

Behind Haley was Zane Smith, recording his second 11th-place finish of the season. After falling a lap down as a part of an early Ryan Blaney blitzkrieg, Smith eventually returned to the lead lap and into the top 20 by the end of stage two. From there, he capitalized on other drivers’ misfortunes while getting better himself to just miss out on a top 10. As Front Row Motorsports’ newest addition, Smith has been the highest finishing driver out of the organization the past three races.

“The gains we made overnight were great,” Smith said. “I was looking for more of a front end and we really accomplished that, and with that it kind of gave me the opportunity to run the bottom when a lot of people were up top. They would go bottom to try to block, and I was still able to maintain up there and never really had to use the fence into one and two. I had that mistake on my end, but fortunately it was early in the race and was able to battle back from it. I knew our car was good enough to, but you just never know how these are gonna play out, especially when you lose track position. I was just really proud of the effort.”

Call it the domination of the leaders, the few cautions for cause, or the breeze from the shores of South Florida, but quiet days were a theme for the top underdogs, with Erik Jones extending that trend in 15th. He did have to battle adversity off the grid after starting at the rear, which made him vulnerable to falling a lap down. After getting the free pass after stage one, Jones struggled in stage two, falling to the back end of the top 20 with an ill-handling car.

Like several underdogs, however, Jones came to life in the final stage, running some of his best laps of the event on his way to the top 15. Despite racking up some solid finishes after a forgettable 2024 season, Jones’ top 15 result was his first on a non-superspeedway since finishing 14th at Pocono Raceway last July.

P15 and heading home with this guy. pic.twitter.com/n0dUM7Uvz1

— Erik Jones (@Erik_Jones) March 24, 2025

The loudest driver of the underdog pack was arguably Noah Gragson, who showed flashes of mastery at a track made for rim-riders. Gragson pieced together some of the best lap averages in practice, then backed it up by tying his best career start in third.

Gragson held tough in the opening stage, finishing it out in ninth to grab two stage points. However, dirty air was not his friend, as he struggled to maintain that pace throughout the remainder of the event.

The No. 4 was mired around 15th for much of the afternoon before settling in 16th when the checkered flag flew. It is Gragson’s second top 20 of the season, and much needed after a DNF at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.

Stat to Chew On

When you think of aces of Homestead-Miami, you might think of drivers such as Kyle Larson, Tyler Reddick, or Denny Hamlin.

However, none of them have the best average finish, nor the most top 10s at the track in the Next Gen era (2022 and beyond). That claim belongs to Allmendinger, who has never finished outside the top 10 in South Beach in the Next Gen car. His 5.75 average finish paces all active drivers in the past four years, a stat for the Kaulig driver to boast about.

He also gave the organization its first back-to-back intermediate top 10s since he accomplished the same feat in 2023.

Underdog Power Rankings

1. John Hunter Nemechek (–): A humdrum race in Miami that led to a 23rd-place showing may have dropped Nemechek out of the top 16 in points, but no other underdog materialized enough merit to overtake Nemechek for the top spot. The Legacy Motor Club driver’s fortunes at Martinsville Speedway need to change next week in order to hold the fort, as he has never finished higher than 25th in four starts at The Paperclip.

2. Allmendinger (NR): Ring, ring, the Dinger is here! After putting back-to-back top 10s together, especially on intermediate tracks, Allmendinger’s veteran prowess is shining through again, as he continues to outperform expectations with Kaulig Racing to assert himself in the points battle early in the campaign. Martinsville presents a mixed bag for Allmendinger. It served as one of his best venues in his JTG Daugherty Racing days, yet, his last four starts there have yielded results of 20th or worse.

3. Carson Hocevar (-1): Ironically, a confrontation between Blaney and Hocevar at Atlanta Motor Speedway forecast the past few weeks for both drivers, as they have been the recipients of some absolutely criminal fortunes. Electrical issues ended Hocevar’s race prematurely, handing him his third consecutive finish of 30th or worse. Hocevar’s last trip to Martinsville was, well… not the prettiest. Not only is a clean race what the doctor should order, but one that would get the No. 77’s wheels back on the rails.

4. Haley (NR): While Hocevar’s speed is surging ahead of his finishes, Haley has quietly been turning in strong days. The 25-year-old’s second consecutive top 15 gives him traction early in the season, something he has yet to find at Martinsville. His best finish at the half-mile track in eight starts is 27th.

5. Smith (NR): Smith continues the barrage of new drivers in this week’s rankings following his 11th-place finish. Like many of the drivers on this list, Smith will need to stick the paperclip in the right lock at Martinsville to unlock success. He is currently on a weird trend of one finish outside the top 20 one week, finish inside the top 11 the next, a trend that he will look to end next week with another strong result.

Honorable Mentions (Todd Gilliland, Gragson, Ricky Stenhouse Jr.)

Small Team Scheme of the Week

While many teams rolled out tropical-themed looks for the weekend in South Beach, the underdog paint schemes remained fairly conventional.

Still, that doesn’t take away from Hocevar’s Zeigler scheme on the high banks.

Fighting hard.@CarsonHocevar | @zeigler_racing pic.twitter.com/bbpMFU53fy

— Spire Motorsports (@SpireMotorsport) March 23, 2025

With more yellow on the Zeigler scheme this year, the car pops out, and it glistened under the Florida sun throughout the weekend.