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The Underdog House: Carson Hocevar Is No Longer the Little Dog

Top Dog: AJ Allmendinger

The NASCAR Cup Series race at Homestead-Miami Speedway (Oct. 27) may have been all about the playoff contenders, but AJ Allmendinger rode his recent wave of momentum to another top 10 in the Next Gen car in South Beach.

Two weeks out from a shot at the NASCAR Xfinity Series title, Allmendinger continued his preparation for his full-time Cup return in 2025 by building more confidence, finishing eighth in a full team effort.

Stage one was just like a wave from the shores of Miami, Fla., featuring highs and lows for the No. 16. After starting 32nd, Allmendinger blazed his way through the field, finding his way into the top 20 within the first 40 laps.

The first challenge came when Allmendinger got mired back in traffic on lap 47 while cycling through green flag pit stops. Then during another round of stops under yellow, he was pinned in his box by Erik Jones, relegating him to the tail end of the lead lap. Resiliency shone through, however, as Allmendinger rebounded to 16th before the end of the first frame.

Following a green flag stop at one point in stage two after staying out more laps than his competitors, Allmendinger went from 22nd to 10th to close out the stage, absolutely sending notice to those around him.

The Los Gatos, Calif., native benefited most from long runs, allowing him to get the front tires under him. He displayed that strength by driving to seventh on the final long run before the final caution unfolded with nearly 10 laps remaining. Despite a short run to end the race, Allmendinger closed out a strong day in eighth, earning his fifth top 10 of the season.

While the 42-year-old has been in and out of the Cup car in the Next Gen era, he has competed in all three races at Homestead-Miami in NASCAR’s seventh generation car. Impressively, he is the only driver to record a top 10 in all three of those annual events, combining for the best average finish of all drivers, only tied with Christopher Bell. That is even more remarkable considering that he has been more consistent than championship contenders at the 1.5-mile track.

Allmendinger’s five top 10s are just two short of the seven he tallied in a full-time effort with Kaulig Racing last season. This year, that mark comes in just 16 starts. It mirrors a part-time 2022 campaign where he grabbed eight top 10s in 18 starts, prompting Kaulig to promote him to Cup.

With a second chance at both the Xfinity title as a member of the Championship 4 and another full-time Cup opportunity waiting in the wings next season, a free-driving Allmendinger is a dangerous opponent.

See also
Dropping the Hammer: Tyler Reddick Shocks & Awes at Homestead

Notable Underdog Runs

Allmendinger’s performance was certainly mesmerizing, but it was Carson Hocevar who stole the show. While he finished right behind Allmendinger in ninth, Hocevar’s run should seriously raise the notion of whether he has graduated from being a little dog to one of the big dogs.

Sure he hasn’t won yet, and no, he didn’t knock on the door of the playoffs, points-wise. But Hocevar delivered maybe his best example yet of why he deserves to be here.

It started from the very beginning when Hocevar broke the playoff drivers’ grappling hold, finishing stage one in fifth and ahead of the likes of Bell, Denny Hamlin and William Byron. No strategy was involved; it was all pure speed and grit from the rookie.

The first stage wasn’t a fluke either, as Hocevar flirted with the top five some more before settling into eighth after two stages. His momentum continued into the final stage, running inside the top 10 the remainder of the day and capping it off with his sixth top 10 of 2024.

Hocevar’s average running position was 9.8, the eighth-best in the field and second-highest among non-playoff drivers. Echoed throughout the broadcast, Spire Motorsports and crew chief Luke Lambert have done a remarkable job coaching the freshman driver and developing him for the future. And at this rate, that is exactly what the pending Cup Rookie of the Year is for the sport: the future who is getting closer to being the now, every single race.

Outside of Allmendinger and Hocevar, not many underdogs surfaced toward the front. Todd Gilliland was the only other dark horse inside the top 20, finishing exactly 20th. Gilliland’s result was more impressive than it might appear to the naked eye. Not only did he struggle mightily with front grip at times, but he had a nearly 20-second stop in stage two, pushing him outside the top 30, one lap down.

A caution on lap 187 for a spinning Justin Haley allowed Gilliland to receive the free pass. He ultimately made good use of that, scoring his 18th top 20 of the year. The past few weeks have been a bit of a struggle for the Front Row Motorsports driver, but he did earn his second top 20 in three weeks to give the team optimism for a strong close to the season.

Several underdogs put together strong qualifying efforts, yet they were unable to parlay them into the finishes they desired.

Homestead-Miami stands out as a track up Ricky Stenhouse Jr.’s alley, but he still has not cracked the top 10 there in 13 starts. This time around felt like a prime opportunity with Stenhouse starting fifth, but the fall Talladega Superspeedway winner was stuck mid-pack for most of the event, finishing 21st.

Daniel Hemric also turned in another impressive qualifying lap, posting a time that netted him a ninth-place starting spot.

Unfortunately for Hemric, he battled an ill-handling car throughout the race. He also suffered what the team believed was a small puncture in his nose early in the race. And on an intermediate track where aero handling is key, any noticeable deformation in the car is not an aide to the driver. Hemric ultimately finished 29th.

Rounding out the underdogs who could not live up to the “it’s not how you start, it’s how you finish” mantra was Haley, who launched from 10th. On the very first lap, he made contact with Stenhouse’s nose entering turn 3, causing him to spin in front of the field.

He didn’t hit anything, but it set him back for the remainder of the race. Another spin later after contact from Ty Gibbs rubbed salt in the wound, leading to a disappointing 34th-place finish.

What They’re Saying

Allmendinger (eighth): “Overall, really good day. We had to come from the back several times. Andrew [Dickeson] and the whole No. 16 group did a great job. Pit stops were good, strategy was good. We probably needed just a little bit more front turn to go run with the leader. I was really happy; I felt like we had really good pace. Proud of our group and the effort today.”

Kaz Grala (32nd): “It was just a tough day for us overall. I wish we could’ve had a better showing for Meat N’ Bone at their home track, but we’ve got two more races and I feel like we’ll be able to finish the season strong.”

See also
Thinkin’ Out Loud at Homestead: Aggression Finally Pays off for Tyler Reddick

Who’s Really the Top Dog?

Even with half the starts of full-time drivers, Allmendinger has earned half the gold medals of the leader, Hocevar. Allmendinger has placed on the podium in six of his 16 appearances. Hocevar won’t reach Gilliland’s silver mark, but he continues to rack the medals up overall with 13, tied with Stenhouse and only trailing Gilliland, who earned his 15th medal with the bronze.

Gold: Hocevar (6x), Stenhouse Jr. (5x), Jones (4x), Zane Smith (4x), John Hunter Nemechek (3x), Allmendinger (3x), Gilliland (2x), Corey LaJoie (2x), Hemric (2x), Haley, Joey Hand, Harrison Burton

Silver: Gilliland (8x), Hocevar (4x), Haley (3x), Stenhouse (3x), LaJoie (3x), Allmendinger (2x), Hemric (2x), Nemechek (2x), Smith (2x), Burton, Ty DillonAnthony AlfredoCody Ware, Jones

Bronze: Stenhouse (5x), Gilliland (5x), LaJoie (4x), Nemechek (3x), Hocevar (3x), Hemric (3x), Jones (2x), Haley (2x), Burton (2x), Grala, Shane van Gisbergen, Allmendinger, Smith, Parker Retzlaff

Small Team Scheme of the Week

Allmendinger was riding in style on his way to the front, sporting the colors of Worldwide Express this week. Kaulig’s close connection with Trackhouse Racing, who has a partnership with WWEX, made sense in having WWEX on the car, and the scheme absolutely delivered.

Blending in with the powder blue walls of Homestead-Miami, the No. 16 was vibrant both on track and in the atmosphere of Miami.

About the author

Luken Glover joined the Frontstretch team in 2020 as a contributor, furthering a love for racing that traces back to his earliest memories. Glover inherited his passion for racing from his grandfather, who used to help former NASCAR team owner Junie Donlavey in his Richmond, Va. garage. A 2023 graduate from the University of the Cumberlands, Glover is the author of "The Underdog House," contributes to commentary pieces, and does occasional at-track reporting. Additionally, Glover enjoys working in ministry, coaching basketball, playing sports, and karting.

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