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Thinkin’ Out Loud at Kansas: There Are No Championship Favorites

What Happened?

Ross Chastain played playoff spoiler and returned to victory lane, holding off William Byron at the finish of Sunday’s (Sept. 29) race at Kansas Speedway. Chastain took the lead from Martin Truex Jr. on the final restart while Byron moved to second, and the No. 1 held onto the lead to get his first victory of the year and fifth career Cup Series win.

Truex crossed the stripe third, still seeking a win in his final season. Ryan Blaney and Ty Gibbs rounded out the top five.

See also
Ross Chastain Holds Off William Byron for 1st Win of 2024

What Really Happened?

If any single phrase could define the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series season, it would be, “we don’t know what we think we know.”

Over the course of previous playoffs, the best teams and drivers identified as the championship favorites typically make the Round of 8 with ease, and often compete in the Championship 4. Last season, Truex ran poorly but survived two rounds while Byron made the final four. In 2022, Chase Elliott stayed consistent and competed for the title in Phoenix.

In the past two years, however, the eventual champion didn’t pick up steam until the middle of the playoffs. Joey Logano had a lowkey season and four rough playoff races before winning at Las Vegas in 2022 and then the championship. The same can be said for Blaney before he won Talladega Superspeedway and Martinsville Speedway on the way to claiming the title in 2023.

To this point, the biggest championship threat has not shown himself. None of the playoff drivers have consistently shown dominance at any point in recent weeks. 

Kyle Larson has help from a strong regular season, but the top overall seed has had issues in three of the four playoff races, and Talladega looms as a strong threat to the No. 5 team. Many considered regular-season champion Tyler Reddick a favorite after his red-hot summer streak, but he has since faded.

Blame it on bad luck, or blame it on his dog, but popular championship pick Denny Hamlin also cannot seem to find the dominant speed he had earlier in the year. Many of the drivers who looked good early in the season — Christopher Bell, Byron, Elliott — are having mixed results, but none seem consistently strong enough to consider themselves a championship favorite.

The only guy who has consistently seemed to improve his points position each week is Alex Bowman, but he hasn’t exactly set the world on fire yet.

With Talladega and the Charlotte Motor Speedway ROVAL ahead and no drivers locked into the next round, anything is on the table, from Byron all the way down to Austin Cindric.

At this time, there are no championship favorites. There probably won’t be any until the checkered flag falls in Phoenix. 

Who Stood Out?

A Chastain victory doesn’t seem too surprising on the surface. The Trackhouse Racing No. 1 team has won two races in each of Chastain’s previous two years with the team. However, Chastain has unexpectedly struggled this season at places like Nashville Superspeedway, Pocono Raceway, and Michigan International Speedway, all tracks where he was expected to contend. 

Entering this race, Chastain had five top-five finishes, but no finishes inside the top three. Really, Watkins Glen International was the only time the No. 1 team carried speed throughout the weekend. Chastain was fast in practice, and the team put together a great race, capping it off with another smashed watermelon.

It’s been a tale of two seasons for Zane Smith. The rookie could not have started the season worse. Smith had only one top 15 through the first 18 races, and his average finish after New Hampshire Motor Speedway was 28.1. Since his runner-up at Nashville, Smith has five top-15 finishes in the last 11 races with an average finish of 15.3, including another top-10 finish today.

Who Fell Flat?

It might not have been Larson’s fault, but the No. 5 team had another dismal day, giving up a chunk of its points lead. The flat tire caused by an unlucky puncture likely damaged the diffuser, and Cliff Daniels and company made a heroic effort to get back onto the lead lap.

However, Larson finished 26th, his worst finish at Kansas since 2017. In the Next Gen car, Larson had never finished worse than eighth at the track.

Another shocking absence from the front was Reddick. That 23XI Racing team, specifically the No. 45, has been incredibly strong at Kansas. After changing to the new Toyota body style, however, the team has not had the same success. 

Last year’s fall winner struggled into a solid position for a late restart, but Reddick got stuck behind Brad Keselowski, losing all of that hard-earned track position in an instant. He finished 25th and is now below the cut line.

Better Than Last Time?

Nothing will compare to the barnburner in the spring with its incredible action and photo finish. But believe it or not, this race felt much more natural in its progression and finish than the overtime finish in the fall of 2023. 

Byron’s inability to overcome dirty air on the final run was a little frustrating to see, but cars still had the ability to pass throughout the field — something we didn’t see much of last week.

See also
Kyle Busch's Kansas Dreams Evaporate After Spin, Tight Squeeze With Chase Briscoe

The race might not have been the most spectacular product ever, but it felt like a vintage NASCAR race from the 2000’ with solid action, natural crashes and hard racing throughout. 

It also gets bonus points for running the final 19 laps green and not finishing in overtime.

Paint Scheme of the Race

The Koker’s Garage scheme for Bowman might not be as vibrant as the Miami edition last season, but the purple gradient on the feathers made for an eye-popping scheme, and it looked good running near the front for most of the afternoon.

What’s Next?

The NASCAR Playoffs continue as drivers face the looming challenge of Talladega Superspeedway. The YellaWood 500 starts at 2 p.m. ET on NBC on Sunday, Oct. 6.

About the author

Caleb began sports writing in 2023 with The Liberty Champion, where he officially covered his first NASCAR race at Richmond in the spring. While there, Caleb met some of the guys from Frontstretch, and he joined the video editing team after graduating from Liberty University with degrees in Strategic Communications and Sports Journalism. Caleb currently work full-time as a Multi-Media Journalist with LEX 18 News in Lexington, Kentucky and contributes to Frontstretch with writing and video editing. He's also behind-the-scenes or on camera for the Happy Hour Podcast, live every Tuesday night at 7:30!

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