Sometimes, the NASCAR playoffs can be overtaken by a single storyline throughout it.
In 2015, it was Kyle Busch rising to victory in the Cup Series after breaking his legs at the start of the year. The 2021 Xfinity Series championship ended in dramatic fashion with Daniel Hemric finally winning his first and, so far, only national touring series race along with the championship.
This year’s championship seems fit to be a seven-week rivalry between the defending champion Cole Custer and the veteran Justin Allgaier.
Maybe the best aspect of this rivalry is that there seems to be little chance of actual on-track beating and banging. Both drivers are fast but are also respectable racers who should be relatively clean in their battles over the next two months.
Custer was able to come out on top as a preview at Bristol, winning and securing the regular-season championship by just three points over Allgaier, who struggled with damage in the latter half of the race.
In spite of the championship, Allgaier should still be the favorite. He’s set a record for most stages won in the regular season with 14. All of those stage points almost won him the regular season championship in spite of an average finish three full positions lower than Custer.
Custer has put together a remarkably consistent season, with a 10.9 average finish. Outside of four DNFs, Custer’s worst finishes on the year were 21st at Watkins Glen International, 18th at the Chicago Street Course, 16th at Atlanta Motor Speedway 13th at Daytona International Speedway. The rest of the season has been top-10 finishes.
Outside of the top two, the field is wide open. Austin Hill should be competitive, but he hasn’t shown speed recently. He finished fourth at Nashville in June, and outside of his win at Atlanta earlier this month, he’s been unable to finish in the top five ever since.
Chandler Smith won early on in the season and enters the playoffs hot, with just one finish out outside of the top 5 in the last five races. This driver might be clicking at just the right time to mount a championship challenge.
The most interesting driver in the playoffs, and arguably of the entire season, is Shane van Gisbergen. He should be able to clear the first round with how well he does at road courses, and he should know the Charlotte ROVAL very well with his extensive testing there last year prior to his Cup Series debut.
But the round of eight will be a total blur in anybody’s crystal ball. Van Gisbergen probably hasn’t even seen Homestead-Miami Speedway yet, just for starters.
Something I’ve noticed with him as somebody who watched him in Supercars is that he’s been able to retain his remarkable car control. So many outside drivers come to NASCAR and hit everything on the ovals, van Gisbergen has decidedly not been like that. That will help him if it comes down to points to get to Phoenix.
Parker Kligerman could surprise in his final full-time racing season, but don’t put money on it. Jesse Love has talent and is probably going to be really good next year, but I just don’t see him taking that step up he needs yet. Ditto for Sammy Smith, who has also been far too inconsistent.
Nobody has been more inconsistent this season than Sam Mayer, however. One thing Mayer has in his back pocket is that he’s the only driver in the playoffs with a win this year at a 1.5-mile intermediate, which could serve him well this weekend at Kansas and next month at Homestead.
It may seem like Riley Herbst has taken a big leap this year, and his win at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway was very impressive. But his numbers are actually worse than last year, with a fourth at Daytona and that win being his only top-five finishes in the last 11 races. Maybe he turns it on in the playoffs, but I don’t buy it looking at the numbers.
A.J. Allmendinger has had an off year, with his bread-and-butter of road course dominance being completely taken away by his own teammate. It would be unwise to count the wily veteran out of this championship, however.
Poor, poor Sheldon Creed. Even in this preview, he ended up finishing second to all the other drivers. The memes stop here, however, because Creed’s second-place finishes have built up an incredible solid, consistent foundation.
Starting with a second at Sonoma in June, Creed lit up the series this entire summer, scoring a total of five runner-up finishes in 13 races. Outside of Nashville, Chicago, Daytona and Atlanta, he didn’t finish outside of the top five that entire span of races. Of all of the drivers, Creed would be the only one I’d pencil in along with Allgaier and Custer to make the championship four. The only question is if he can finally win a race before the year is out.
Michael has watched NASCAR for 20 years and regularly covered the sport from 2013-2021, and also formerly covered the SRX series from 2021-2023. He now covers the FIA Formula 1 World Championship, the NASCAR Xfinity Series, and road course events in the NASCAR Cup Series.