The 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Silly Season is in full swing, and as usual, Alex Bowman has found himself in the thick of it yet again.
On the most recent episode of the Door, Bumper, Clear podcast, hosted by NASCAR spotters Brett Griffin, TJ Majors and Freddie Kraft, a passing comment was made about Bowman and how his ride at Hendrick Motorsports could be in jeopardy if he’s a first-round exit from the 2024 playoffs.
Bowman himself is well aware of the rumors and addressed them at this year’s playoff media day, stating that he’s called several people within Hendrick for affirmation that he will remain with the team next year.
It’s not the first time Bowman has been at the center of Silly Season rumors, and at this point it certainly won’t be the last.
What makes this season’s rumor hold weight is that it comes from three people who are heavily involved in the NASCAR industry. While Griffin has stepped away from full-time spotting, Majors is Brad Keselowski‘s spotter, while Kraft spots for Bubba Wallace. This rumor didn’t come from some Reddit user looking for clicks or anything like that, it came from people who are well ingrained within NASCAR itself.
Whether the rumor holds any truth or not is up for debate. What’s not, however, is that this very conversation seems to come up year after year, regardless of how the rumor comes to be. It’s no secret Bowman and the No. 48 team have been a step behind his other Hendrick teammates, Kyle Larson, William Byron and Chase Elliott.
This issue is compounded by the fact that Bowman is in the midst of his first full-time season since 2021, as a concussion in 2022 and a broken back in 2023 sidelined him from a total of eight races across the two seasons. His win at the Chicago street course in July was his first since 2022 because of those injuries.
But even without the injuries, one can understand why Bowman is in this position every year: He doesn’t bring in the results his teammates do. Since joining Hendrick full time in 2018, Bowman has only garnered eight wins, highlighted by a four-victory season in 2021. That leaves the 31-year-old with a combined four wins across six other seasons of Hendrick competition.
On the surface, it makes sense for people to believe that Bowman is on the hot seat. Compared to his teammates, Bowman just doesn’t bring home as many trophies as he should. Hell, he doesn’t even spend as much time at the front as his teammates.
Only once in his entire Cup career (including his time with BK Racing) has Bowman led more than 200 laps in a season, which came in 2020 (440), but he only had one win to show for it. The last three seasons, Bowman has led a combined 240 circuits. For reference, teammate Larson led 263 laps in the 2024 Southern 500, 23 more than Bowman’s last three seasons combined.
Don’t get me wrong; back injuries take time from which to recover and come back. Just ask Denny Hamlin in 2013. Bowman is still likely on the back end of recovery mode from that. But such an excuse was not present when he was struggling for wins from 2018-2022 (sans 2021), which is why he always seems to be considered on the hot seat every Silly Season.
But at the same time, it’s not his fault as much as people may think. That’s because Bowman has fallen victim to the dreaded fourth car syndrome at Hendrick.
Historically, four-car teams have always had one entry that considerably falters compared to its teammates. It’s happened to many: Stewart-Haas Racing with the No. 41 post-Kurt Busch, RFK Racing with the No. 6 post-Mark Martin, Richard Childress Racing with the No. 33 (or No. 27, depending on the season).
Hendrick is no exception.
Ever since expanding to four full-time cars with the addition of Dale Earnhardt Jr. in 2008, there’s always been one car a step behind the others. It was Earnhardt’s No. 88 for his first four years or so with the organization, until around 2013 or 2014 when Kasey Kahne’s No. 5 took over as the lame duck of the group.
Following Kahne’s departure from the team, the No. 88 — now driven by Earnhardt’s hand-picked replacement, Bowman — returned to the neglected fourth car role. It seems to have been that way ever since.
Crew chief changes, penalties and various injuries have hindered the team greatly, even as Bowman took the No. 48 from the retiring Jimmie Johnson (though his team is just a renumbered version of the No. 88 team). But even as that car falls behind its teammates, Bowman’s held his own.
Many forget that Bowman was leading the regular season points in 2023 prior to his back injury. Some say most of his wins were by pure luck — and by some manners of examination, those people are right. But therein lies where Bowman excels.
He’s always there to strike at the right time.
In many ways, Bowman is an underrated driver. He has sneaky good runs and can be there when it counts. Chicago this year was a prime example. Not to mention, as Bowman said, it’s now September. If he wasn’t returning, he would know about it already, and the rumor mill would be more than just whispers.
At the same time, it’s just as understandable to want to see more from Bowman results-wise to justify him staying at Hendrick beyond his contract expiration after 2026. It’s a double-edged sword for Bowman to consistently be fighting every year.
And now, returning to the playoffs for the first time since 2022, that distraction is weighing all the more heavily on the Showman.
While it’s safe to say that Bowman is the driver of the No. 48 for 2025 (barring some major 11th-hour signing or conflict), as he should be, it’s also fair to say that he needs to be more noteworthy next season and prove his worth.
Lest he find himself right back in the same rumor mill for 2026.
Anthony Damcott joined Frontstretch in March 2022. Currently, he is an editor and co-authors Fire on Fridays (Fridays); he is also the primary Truck Series reporter/writer and serves as an at-track reporter. He has also assisted with short track content and social media, among other duties he takes/has taken on for the site. In 2025, he became an official member of the National Motorsports Press Association. A proud West Virginia Wesleyan College alum from Akron, Ohio, Anthony is now a grad student. He is a theatre actor and fight coordinator in his free time.
You can keep up with Anthony by following @AnthonyDamcott on X.