After 25 races and plenty of memorable moments during the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series regular season, it all comes down to this. The 2024 playoff field will be set and 16 drivers will race for a championship.
As for you bettors and fantasy managers out there, the end of the regular season makes for tricky picking this weekend in one of the “crown jewel” races of our sport; the annual Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway.
Desperation will be high, daring risks will be taken and ‘The Lady in Black’ will be tamed by one of these drivers and you as well if you pick the right squad and fill out your bet slip wisely.
Before we get into that, I want to do a quick recap of last week’s picks. After a wild night that saw Harrison Burton cash in with his first career win at Daytona International Speedway, my lineup was in shambles and I didn’t hit on a single bet.
| RIGHT ON THE MONEY | LICK YOUR WOUNDS |
| Bubba Wallace (54 points scored) | Chase Elliott (-21 points scored) |
| Chris Buescher (40 points scored) | William Byron (+1600) to win |
| BAD BREAK: John Hunter Nemechek (+900) to finish in the top five | Noah Gragson (-17 points scored) |
Yeah, I said something last week about Daytona usually being good to me, but apparently I should’ve kept my mouth shut. That’s the nature of the beast though, as not one but two big accidents dashed all hopes I had at a good week.
I certainly hope it goes better for us all this week. Now, before we get into the lineup, here’s a rules breakdown:
Drivers will be awarded points based on their finishing position, position differential, fastest laps and laps led. The driver who wins the race scores 45 fantasy points, while second gets 42 points, third gets 41 points and so on, at least through the top 10. The 11th-place finisher scores 32 points, 21st gets 21 points and 31st gets 10 points.
However many spots they lose or gain on the track are added to or subtracted from their score. Then, if the driver leads a lap, they will earn 0.25 points for each lap led and 0.45 points for each fastest lap.
DraftKings NASCAR Scoring Rules
Fantasy Forecast
1. William Byron ($10,200)
After a summer slump saw driver No. 24 fade into the background of the regular season championship race, he comes to one of his best tracks. Byron always seems to run well here, which is evident the closer you look at his record here.
He has a win, four straight top-five finishes and has spent 1041 laps inside the top-five in each race here since the debut of the Next Gen car. I don’t think there are any more surefire picks to be made this season, with how much parity we’ve seen every week.
However, this one’s pretty close. Look for Byron and his team to be pretty darn good Sunday night.
2. Christopher Bell ($9,300)
Bell was involved in the finish a week ago, despite not having the best piece under him. That has been kind of a hallmark of this team and driver this season, as it has put in the best performance yet since Bell moved up to the series.
While I’m not super confident in his record over the years here (career average finish of 16.4 in ten total starts) He ran pretty respectable here in the spring and this team is gelling at the right time heading into the postseason.
His salary this week also leaves plenty on the back end for what is potentially my most loaded lineup of the season.
3. Ross Chastain ($8,000)
Talk about the difference a year makes. This time last season, the Melon Man was fresh off the Hail Melon hype and was securely locked into the playoffs with a win.
That’s not the case this season, as Chastain finds himself fighting for his season and trying to get back inside the cut line. A desperate Chastain is one you should invest in.
There is pretty much a guarantee that he will take risks and make moves and do everything he can to advance. He’s got a lot of work to do, but it is certainly not an impossible task.
4. Kyle Busch ($7,800)
Oh gosh, I don’t want to do this.
It seems every time I pick Busch he runs horrible. But, we’re talking about one of the all-time greats here.
He’s won plenty of big races in his career, including this one. There’s a lot against this pick; he’s crashed when running well or just simply not run well at all plenty of times this season. He also ran pretty poorly here in the spring, finishing 27th.
This is the riskiest pick of the week, but also kind of feels safe? I don’t know.
5. Erik Jones ($7,400)
I will never not pick this guy at Darlington. I mean, it kind of goes without saying that he’s particularly good at this specific track.
Two wins (both in the Southern 500), a career average finish of 12.4, eight top-ten finishes in 13 starts.
Even when he doesn’t run very well, he scores vital points at this track. This past spring, despite a 19th-place finish, Jones scored 35 points. If Busch carries the most risk in this lineup, Jones carries the absolute most secure.
6. Chase Briscoe ($7,200)
Briscoe had one of his best runs of the year here in the spring. It kicked off a large amount of momentum for him at the start of the summer, but it was over just as quickly as it began.
Let’s be serious: I don’t think he’s going to win this week, but at $7,200 and that recent good run here, he’s a solid final pick for this race.
Prop Bets and Locks
- Chris Buescher (+400) to finish top three: Buescher very nearly won in the spring, so it stands to reason he will run well on Sunday. I think this is a good recovery bet after last week’s bad beats.
- Harrison Burton (+130) over Carson Hocevar (-175): Burton’s first career win indicates he has momentum on his side, even though Hocevar has been on a bit of streak of his own. I still think winning cures a lot of ills, and I think Burton is going to outduel Hocevar this week.
- Bubba Wallace (+2000) to win: This is a fun pick this week. We’ve all seen what Wallace can do when pushed into a corner. I think it’d be super cool to see him win his way off the bubble and it be even cooler to score a big win off of it.
Well, that’s all for this week. Get ready for the playoffs! Good luck and happy betting!
Garrett joined Frontstretch as a news writer in 2023, and became a fantasy racing and betting writer in 2024. Hailing from the heart of coal country in southern West Virginia, he's a married father of three and currently enrolled in the Physical Therapy Assistant Program at New River Community Technical College in Beaver, WV.
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