Did You Notice?: The NASCAR Regular Season Points Battle No One’s Talking About

Did You Notice? … With two races remaining, four NASCAR Cup Series drivers have a realistic shot at the regular season points championship.

It’s an important milestone not just for the driver but for the playoff bonus it provides. The winner gets 15 points that can’t be lost from round to round, at least five more than anyone else (second place gets 10, third place eight, then one point less all the way down to 10th position).

Right now, Tyler Reddick is in the best position to cash in, inheriting the points lead for the first time in his career after winning Monday’s (Aug. 19) rain-delayed race at Michigan International Speedway. But Chase Elliott (-10), Denny Hamlin (-28) and Kyle Larson (-32) are all nipping at his heels, each having led the standings as recently as Memorial Day Weekend in Charlotte.

Since the 16-driver playoff format was adopted in 2014, we’ve never had a race for the championship this close.

NASCAR Cup Series Regular Season Points After 24 Races

Year	Points Leader	Gap Between 1st to 2nd in Points	Gap Between 1st to 4th in Points
2014	Jeff Gordon	-27	-84
2015	Kevin Harvick	-43	-115
2016	Kevin Harvick	-35	-78
2017	Martin Truex Jr.	-101	-127
2018	Kyle Busch	-43	-207
2019	Kyle Busch	-39	-94
2020	Kevin Harvick	-100	-173
2021	Kyle Larson	-22	-163
2022	Chase Elliott	-116	-142
2023	Martin Truex Jr.	-59	-121
2024	Tyler Reddick	-10	-32

As you can see, this year’s parity is highly unusual: in six of the previous 10 years, fourth place was already eliminated from title contention. No one’s been closer than 78 points (2016), a virtual impossibility to make up with two races left in the season.

Who has the edge as we head toward the final two weeks? And what does it mean for what’s expected to be a wide-open battle for the championship?

The Case for Tyler Reddick

The last two races feel like they favor Reddick the most. He’s the most recent winner of a pack race (Talladega Superspeedway in April) and won the Bluegreens Vacations Duel at Daytona back in February. He also had arguably the fastest car at Darlington Raceway in May, leading a race-high 174 laps before a mistimed move on Chris Buescher took them both out of contention for the win.

Reddick’s regular season title carries weight with 23XI Racing. It’s never led the standings this late in the year. Sitting 15 points behind Larson for the most playoff points earned and driving for the most inexperienced of these four teams, it’s crucial for Reddick to close the gap.

The driver himself feels like leaning into the points race has given him a leg up on the competition this summer: Reddick’s posted a career-high seven straight top-six finishes going back to New Hampshire Motor Speedway in June.

“Early in the year, my career in the Cup Series, we had a really rough start,” Reddick said. “And I think I got to win, got to win. I feel like it cost us points, because I’m more aggressive than I probably should be.

“I think having a points mindset is good for me because I like to be more aggressive, probably more than I should be in a lot of situations.”

That maturity, coming in his fifth full-time season, is shaping him into a serious title contender. His recent success has come on all track types: a short track, street course, intermediate and one of the sport’s crown jewel events (Indianapolis Motor Speedway). A cool response to pressure, especially with a number of near misses on victory lane this summer, bodes well for what’s to come between now and November.

Chance He’ll Win the Regular Season Title: 40%.

The Case for Chase Elliott

Elliott is the weakest of the four drivers when it comes to their season resume. He’s got just one win (Texas Motor Speedway in April) and sits without a top-eight finish in the last seven races. His laps led total (213) is only marginally above what it was last season. In fact, it’s on pace to be the second-lowest total of his Cup career.

Where Elliott has excelled this season is consistency. Only once (Chicago street course) has Elliott finished outside the top 20; he’s posted 19 top-15 finishes to limit the damage of any bad handling cars. Elliott has completed all but one lap so far this season; in that race, at Bristol Motor Speedway, he still finished inside the top 10.

Elliott did a good job surviving Daytona International Speedway and Talladega this year, coming home with a top-15 finish in each along with a stage win in the Daytona 500. Darlington was another success considering where he started, a net gain of 19 positions from 31st to 12th on a track where passing is somewhere between difficult and impossible.

Armed with only six playoff points, Elliott sits as an underdog to make the Championship 4 behind two of his own Hendrick Motorsports teammates: Larson and William Byron. Winning the regular season title feels like a must for him to remain within striking distance; it could get him to the Round of 8 and give the No. 9 team two more months to figure out how to step up performance.

Chance He’ll Win the Title: 25%.

The Case For Denny Hamlin

Hamlin started the season hot, pulling three wins in the first 11 races, but has lost a step as we’ve headed through the summer. No wins in his last 13 starts have been replaced with other controversies: right hooked from a win at Richmond Raceway by Austin Dillon, increasingly outspoken on charter negotiations as a team owner and unable to capitalize despite three pole positions over the last six races.

While Daytona has been the site of some of Hamlin’s greatest triumphs (three Daytona 500s), his performance there has slipped a bit since a fifth in February 2021. He hasn’t cracked the top 10 since, crashing out twice and leading no more than 13 laps in any race.

Darlington is one of Hamlin’s most consistent tracks, banking a fourth there in May, but he’s seen a similar slip in results as of late. Since winning in the fall of 2021, Hamlin has three runs outside the top 10 in five starts, finishing off the lead lap twice (Which, for him at Darlington, is the equivalent to running on seven cylinders).

Hamlin remains in solid shape playoff-points-wise (third, seven behind Larson) and has some skin in the game with Reddick as co-owner of 23XI. With the goal simply making the Championship 4, you wonder if he’s more concerned about getting his team playoff ready than a 15-point bonus he might not need in the long run.

Chance He’ll Win The Title: 20%.

The Case for Kyle Larson

Larson has done a herculean job staying in this race despite missing one over Memorial Day Weekend (remember, he didn’t make it back from the Indianapolis 500 in time to run the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte). The 2021 Cup champ then had to endure weeks of seemingly unnecessary drama before NASCAR ultimately granted him a playoff waiver to soldier on.

The No. 5 team appears unaffected through it all, winning twice more while Larson’s collected those series-high 28 playoff points. The issue is they’ve also played it a little fast and loose, leading to a couple of high-profile mistakes that have left them the underdog in this race.

Michigan was the most recent, with Larson spinning out in turn 4 in front of the field, triggering a wreck that may have taken Bubba Wallace out of the postseason. But that’s not the only one: there was the crash at Chicago after winning the pole and dueling with Shane van Gisbergen to be the fastest car in the field. And an ill-fated restart at Iowa Speedway behind cars with older tires led to a wreck with Daniel Suarez.

It’s just too many mistakes in a boom-or-bust strategy that hasn’t paid off, with Larson and crew chief Cliff Daniels squandering their chances. It doesn’t help Larson doesn’t have the best track record at pack races: he’s without a top-five finish at Daytona in 20 career starts, failing to finish nine times. That’s a whopping DNF rate of 45%; one more and it makes whatever Larson would do at Darlington irrelevant.

Larson could easily win the Southern 500 finale, erasing any deficit he’ll have by losing the regular season championship. It’s the most likely outcome (win/loss) considering the Daytona unpredictability ahead.

Chance He’ll Win the Title: 15%.

Did You Notice? … Quick hits before taking off …

• Don’t sleep on Austin Dillon’s appeal of his Richmond penalties; the hearing is scheduled for when you’re likely reading this piece: Wednesday morning. The Appeals Board tends to go its own way and has thrown a wrench in plenty of NASCAR decisions through the years. Don’t discount Richard Childress Racing’s respect throughout the garage, led by one of the sport’s most important people. Childress himself in that room carries weight. I doubt anything will change … but I also wouldn’t be surprised if it does.
• Ross Chastain and Wallace have to be losing sleep this week, right? At the end of the day Sunday, it looked like Ty Gibbs would be the one leaving points on the table. Instead, he looks rather safe (barring a Daytona disaster) and was the only one of the bubble drivers to work his way inside the top five. And if Chastain winds up missing, it’s reasonable to ask, “Is a neutered, drama free Chastain who plays nice actually a better driver?”
• Whether Zane Smith gets a Cup ride at Front Row Motorsports next season remains to be seen. But it’s fair to say he’s started figuring it out over the past six races: four of his best six finishes this year have occurred during that stretch.

Follow Tom Bowles on X at @NASCARBowles