After three weeks (and two weekends) off, it’s good to be back.
This week, the NASCAR Cup Series makes its way back to the Irish Hills of Michigan and the Michigan International Speedway. This 1.5-mile oval is very similar in design to tracks like Las Vegas Motor Speedway and the former Auto Club Speedway in Fontana, Calif.
There will be plenty of passing, plenty of searching for the correct racing lines and, should the stars align, plenty of pit strategy to go around. Fuel strategy finishes have been all the rage this season, and there’s been quite a few classics at this place as well over the years.
Last week, my colleague and the former writer of this column Joy Tomlinson was gracious enough to fill in for me. Her pick of Joey Logano was looking pretty good up until turn four, and I definitely cringed a bit when Logano hit the wall off Austin Dillon’s bumper.
Drivers will be awarded points based on their finishing position, position differential, fastest laps and laps led. The driver who wins the race scores 45 fantasy points, while second gets 42 points, third gets 41 points and so on, at least through the top 10. The 11th-place finisher scores 32 points, 21st gets 21 points and 31st gets 10 points.
However many spots they lose or gain on the track are added to or subtracted from their score. Then, if the driver leads a lap, they will earn 0.25 points for each lap led and 0.45 points for each fastest lap.
DraftKings NASCAR Scoring Rules
Fantasy Forecast
1. Kyle Larson ($10,700)
Yesterday, Larson made a not-too-bold claim that he’s a better all-around driver than three-time defending Formula One World Champion Max Verstappen. I definitely think he’ll back that up with a win this week at Michigan. His record here is superb, with three career wins and nine top 10 finishes.
Even if Larson somehow manages to not win this weekend, his fantasy value is too great to ignore him. He’ll bring you plenty of points on fast laps alone.
2. Martin Truex, Jr. ($10,000)
MTJ has struggled mightily throughout the summer, with few highlights to hang his hat on. So why then, would I tell you to pick a guy whose edging closer and closer to the cut line?
Well, because he’s sneaky good at Michigan.
He finished runner up here last season, and he hasn’t finished outside the top 10 here since 2018. If there is anywhere Truex can win on his retirement tour, it’s here. Besides, Michigan owes him one.
3. Chris Buescher ($8,600)
Speaking of a driver who’s struggled this summer, look no further than driver No. 17. Buescher won this race last year, but he hasn’t looked to have that winning form this season outside of one night earlier this season at Kansas Speedway.
I’m picking him solely on the back of that fact. However, there’s more than meets the eye of this selection.
A Ford driver has won this race each season dating all the way back to 2018, which makes him a safe bet.
4. Ross Chastain ($8,100)
Chastain bounced back in a big way last weekend at Richmond Raceway after some really pedestrian and just downright bad runs over the past month.
The driver of the No. 1 Chevrolet brought home a fifth-place finish, and he returns to a place where he ran really well last season.
While he hasn’t shown the same speed he did last season, this track fits his skill set. The “Melon Man” probably won’t be the one that brings it home for you this weekend. He very well may give you the best chance at putting yourself over the top in a close match though.
5. Austin Dillon ($6,300)
Is this crazy? Probably. Will Denny Hamlin and Joey Logano make sure this car won’t cross the finish line Sunday?
Also probable. However, I’m picking Dillon based on a trend: the winner of the second Richmond race has won the following race at Michigan the next week in the first two years of the Next Gen car. Will it happen? I don’t know. But it’s worth the shot.
6. Justin Haley ($5,800)
Is anybody on the circuit doing more with less than this guy this season?
He’s been pretty good all season on intermediates considering the equipment he’s in. For example, he finished 13th at Nashville, the last intermediate the series ran at.
I have no idea how he’ll do this Sunday, but this has been Ford’s playground, as I mentioned earlier. That and the talent he’s shown this season are definitely enough to justify a flier.
Prop Bets and Locks
- Ford (+210) to win: How in the world is Ford the underdog?! For the last six seasons, that’s all they’ve done here is win. The odds make no sense, but you can 100% benefit from their hubris here.
- Brad Keselowski (+275) to win his group: Kes has Ford’s mojo on his side, and he also has the defending winner in his race shop. He’s taking on Tyler Reddick, Logano, and Christopher Bell this week, which is a stout group. But don’t get distracted by the big names. Only Logano is a former winner here.
- Chase Elliott (+1400) to win: Elliott’s only win this season came at a Texas Motor Speedway, so it stands to reason he could be pretty good here. Buyer beware though. He’s come mighty close to winning here in the past, but he hasn’t finished better than seventh here in his last five starts.
Well, that’s all for this week folks. Good luck and as always, happy betting!
About the author
Garrett joined Frontstretch as a news writer in 2023, and became a fantasy racing and betting writer in 2024. Hailing from the heart of coal country in southern West Virginia, he's a married father of three and currently enrolled in the Physical Therapy Assistant Program at New River Community Technical College in Beaver, WV.
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