NASCAR on TV this week

Daily Fantasy DraftKings NASCAR Forecast: 2024 USA Today 301

The NASCAR Cup Series finds itself back in New England this weekend, as its drivers prepare to take on the flat, slick and fast “Magic Mile.”

New Hampshire Motor Speedway is a mile-long oval with a short track feel. It is most similar to Phoenix Raceway as far as its design, but shares characteristics with both Martinsville Speedway and Pocono Raceway.

The drivers who have had success here in the past tend to be the drivers who are most successful when the series comes to town. Fantasy picks and betting slips should lean heavily toward veteran wisdom and the trends set at similar tracks this season.

Pay close attention to who was great a Phoenix and shined at Martinsville and you’ll be well on your way.

Now, before we get into the rules and picks, let me give you a quick rundown of my greatest hits and misses from last week.

RIGHT ON THE MONEYLICK YOUR WOUNDS
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (70 Points Scored, 24.1 averageAustin Cindric +180 to finish in the top-ten (finished 30th)
Ryan Blaney (race win, 118 points scored)Erik Jones (Scored 9 whole fantasy points)
Christopher Bell (finished 4th, scored 64 points)Ty Gibbs (+350) to finish in the top-three (finished 25th)

I surely didn’t win any money last week, but I did grab some good fantasy points and finished top 10 in my group. I do hope you had some change in your pocket from Sunday’s race in Iowa, though!

For those new to DraftKings play, let’s take a look at the rules. Points will be awarded in their games for finishing position, position differential, fastest laps and laps led. The driver who wins the race scores 45 fantasy points, while second gets 42 points, third gets 41 points and so on, at least through the top 10. The 11th-place finisher scores 32 points, 21st gets 21 points and 31st gets 10 points.

However many spots they lose or gain on the track are added to or subtracted from their score. Then, if the driver leads a lap, they will earn 0.25 points for each lap led and 0.45 points for each fastest lap.

DraftKings NASCAR Scoring Rules

Fantasy Forecast

  1. Denny Hamlin ($10,800)

Stats that matter: Three career wins at New Hampshire, with a career average finish of 9.4; seven career wins between Martinsville and Phoenix.

The members of the No. 11 team are in the middle of a rough patch, that much is true.

They rallied for a few stage points last week in Iowa, but overall, they had a miserable, uncharacteristic night. It seems that when things look bleak, though, Hamlin is there to answer the call.

Earlier this season, after an abysmal weekend at Talladega Superspeedway, he followed up his worst finish of the season with a win at Dover Motor Speedway.

What’s more, Hamlin has been exceptional at New Hampshire for the last two decades. I will be very surprised if he’s not up front Sunday, scoring the points that make up the lion’s share of your total score.

2. William Byron ($9,500)

Stats that matter: Two-time winner at Martinsville, one career win at Phoenix. Career average finish of 15.5 at New Hampshire.

“Willy B” has never picked up a top-10 finish at New Hampshire, which is surprising considering how good he is at Martinsville and Phoenix.

I definitely think that will change this week. Byron finished a somewhat quiet second at Iowa, which ended the mini-slump he and his team were on heading into that race.

This track just fits the style of this driver and crew chief Rudy Fugle too well to think he won’t be an asset to your team.

3. Tyler Reddick (8,800)

Stats that matter: Finished in the top 10 at Martinsville, Phoenix and the most recent race at New Hampshire last season; career average finish of 12.5 at New Hampshire.

Reddick’s momentum hit a bit of a road block in Iowa, as he limped home outside the top-20 for the first time since Darlington Raceway over a month ago.

I think he picks it back up in New England.

Reddick has steadily improved his game on similar tracks as of late, finishing in the top-ten at Phoenix, Martinsville and New Hampshire. The interesting thing is, is that Reddick is much more consistent here at this track.

His average finish is pretty great, and he ran really solid in this race a year ago. I don’t think he’s a serious contender for a win yet, but he certainly is a threat to score points no matter what.

4. Kyle Busch ($7,700)

Stats that matter: Three career wins at New Hampshire; Five career wins between Martinsville and Phoenix; Has not had a top-ten finish in his last five starts this season.

Somewhere, I’m sure, Busch is wondering if the racing gods will ever ease up.

One of the greatest to ever drive a racecar has had possibly the most miserable season for a surefire Hall of Famer that I have seen in a very long time. But this column is not here to dwell on the past.

I think this racetrack is the best shot he’s got at rebound for a long while. He’s been wildly successful here over his career, just not lately. He hasn’t finished better than 12th here since 2019.

But in this topsy-turvy kind of year, maybe that’s a good thing. I honestly don’t know. I’m going with my gut here.

5. Josh Berry ($8,000)

Stats that matter: First career Cup Series start at New Hampshire; three top-10 finishes in his last five starts.

While the attention has been focused solely on the future of teammate Chase Briscoe this week, Berry has been rock solid over the past month.

He had a really good car at Iowa last weekend in Iowa, looking the best he’s looked all season. He is very good at Martinsville as well, where he’s won before in the Xfinity Series.

Much like Byron, this track seems to fit his and crew chief Rodney Childers’ skill set. Childers had a whole lot of success here with Kevin Harvick in the past, so one must surmise that perhaps Berry will too.

6. Harrison Burton ($5,200)

Stats that matter: Son of four-time New Hampshire winner Jeff Burton; finished 20th in this race in 2023.

OK, so I ran out of money for this pick.

Burton had a bit of a season highlight last weekend though, as he was spotted running in the top-15 for a little while before coming home 20th. That’s one reason I was comfortable with this pick.

The second is that his father Jeff was flat out dominant here. He once led every lap en route to victory here, and that was just unheard of back in the late 1990s.

I don’t know if Harrison Burton has the skill of his father at this place, but it was worth the cheap salary here.

Prop Bets and Locks

  1. Chase Elliott (+1100) to win: Elliott looked strong in a third-place effort in Iowa, and is currently on a streak of two straight top-five finishes. He’s not been particularly good at New Hampshire over the years, but he did finish second to Christopher Bell here in 2022.
  2. Todd Gilliland (+700) to finish in the top 10: In this humble columnist’s opinion, this is the most underrated driver of the 2024 season. He ran really well late at Iowa and has been impressive to outstanding at times. This team is smart, and I look for another good strategy call to help him get a great finish and you some money in your pocket.
  3. Alex Bowman (+700) to finish in the top five: Bowman has been sneaky good as of late, and he just keeps getting better as this season rolls on. I don’t think a win is on the table this week, but crew chief Blake Harris is very underrated as well. I think he’s got a really good shot at this one, and it’s a smart bet to take at +700.

That’s all for this week! Now grab your wine andyour corn, get the lobster out of the pot and fill out your slips. Good luck, and happy betting!!

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Garrett joined Frontstretch as a news writer in 2023, and became a fantasy racing and betting writer in 2024. Hailing from the heart of coal country in southern West Virginia,  he's a married father of three and currently enrolled in the Physical Therapy Assistant Program at New River Community Technical College in Beaver, WV.

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