2-Headed Monster: Is SVG the Real Deal or a One-Trick Pony?

Coming off his second consecutive NASCAR Xfinity Series win at Sonoma Raceway last weekend, Shane van Gisbergen finds himself in the top 10 in points, ahead of two JR Motorsports cars and only 17 points behind Parker Kligerman. Despite being a rookie in this series as well as the NASCAR Cup Series, van Gisbergen already has three wins in less than a year of exposure to NASCAR.

While his wins have all been on road courses, there’s no shortage of ovals coming up for him to learn on. Is SVG shaping up to be a legitimate title contender, or is the road course ringer just beating up on the competition? This week, Amy Henderson and Wyatt Watson heel toe their way through the topic in 2-Headed Monster.

SVG: Shane’s Very Good

Can you call Shane van Gisbergen the NASCAR Xfinity Series title favorite with 12 races to go before the playoffs begin?

Well, no.

But you can’t really call anyone else the favorite either, and van Gisbergen, with wins in the last two races, will be in the 12-driver playoff field when the series’ title run begins in September at Kansas Speedway. And he has a very real chance of winning the whole shebang.

Van Gisbergen has been exceptional on road courses, with the exception of Circuit of the Americas, where he led 20 laps before an on-track incident dropped him to 27th. The last two road course races ended with van Gisbergen in victory lane. He’s confident enough now that when Austin Hill tried to pinch him entering turn 2 and force him off-track, van Gisbergen not only held his ground but taunted Hill after the race.

His performance on ovals is not quite at the same level — yet. But he’s improving and has finished in the top 15 at seven of the 11 ovals the series has visited. He does need to start leading laps on the ovals; so far, he’s led just one, but his finishes are generally decent, and nine of the final dozen regular-season races are on ovals (10 including Pocono Raceway, but it’s not a traditional oval and actually races a lot like a road course, van Gisbergen’s wheelhouse).

There are already a few things that decidedly work in van Gisbergen’s favor once the playoffs start. First and foremost, the championship format means that if van Gisbergen (and also any driver in the hunt) can still be in the game in the season finale at Phoenix Raceway, he has a shot at the title.

Guess where van Gisbergen’s best oval finish of 2024 has been?

That’d be Phoenix, where he finished sixth in the spring race. And his second-best oval? Martinsville Speedway, the championship cutoff race, where he
finished 11th.

Of the six ovals in the NXS playoffs, four are tracks the series visits earlier in the
season—that’s a big deal for SVG, because he’s proven to be a quick learner. If he can improve on his results from earlier visits to those tracks, he’s going to be a contender. Round one opens with an unknown in Kansas Speedway but ends with the Charlotte Motor Speedway ROVAL — van Gisbergen’s strength.

As long as he’s consistent at Kansas and Talladega Superspeedway, he should be strong enough at Charlotte to move on. If he can survive round two, it’s one race, where anything can happen. If SVG improves on his first Phoenix finish, he’ll be right in it.

He’s also got experience on his side. The cars are different, but racing for a title under pressure is a learned skill that van Gisbergen has. His three Supercars titles give him plenty of experience in performing under that pressure and coming out on top. It’s not a level of experience that some of his NXS peers have gained yet.

There are drivers with long and impressive NASCAR resumes who have not been able to break through for a title under that kind of pressure. SVG has done it three times. Nothing about SVG’s rookie season says he’s an overwhelming title favorite, but nothing says he isn’t a threat, either.

The current title format lends itself to a driver who can stay cool under pressure and slide through the first two rounds. Once they get to Phoenix, it’s about beating three drivers. The champion doesn’t have to win the final race. Of course, that means that any of the 12 drivers who start can squeeze through and win the
title even if they don’t win in the first six races. That puts van Gisbergen on even ground with the field, though, and the way he has raced over the last few weeks as he gets more comfortable with the cars suggests that he will not be a pushover.

He won’t let other drivers intentionally put him in a bad position without a fight. He’s not going to go out and start any feuds, but he will stand his ground.

Yes, we need to see more on the ovals. It would be a bigger surprise if van Gisbergen doesn’t improve in that area before and during the playoffs than if he does. He’s been at his best on the short, flat ovals, the kind where the title is decided. Counting him out in June would be foolish. Counting him out before he’s actually out just might make more than a few people eat their words. – Amy Henderson

Great Road Racer – But Ovals Need Focus

Although Shane van Gisbergen has broken the rookie mold with back-to-back wins at Portland and Sonoma, I wouldn’t consider the Kiwi to be in the conversation for the title right now.

Here’s why, but first, let’s look at where van Gisbergen sits in the points right now.

Looking at where the New Zealander would start in the playoffs, he’s currently listed as the sixth seed if the playoffs were to start right now. He’s climbed to 10th in the regular season points, 147 points behind the points leader Cole Custer. Before his two back-to-back road course wins, van Gisbergen was 15th in points on the outside looking in by 47 points behind Brandon Jones.

A win fixes all with locking his way into the playoffs, but can van Gisbergen actually compete against the favorites?

Although van Gisbergen has plenty of experience previously in Australian V8 Supercars and burst onto the scene after taking the NASCAR Cup Series victory at the Chicago street course in his NASCAR touring series debut, he is only in his rookie year of the Xfinity Series and has only just started to get used to paved oval racing. If you take out his two wins at road courses, he only has one top five at Atlanta Motor Speedway — a superspeedway — and two top 10s with the second coming at the championship track at Phoenix Raceway.

However, if you recall the Phoenix race, after NASCAR threw an unnecessary caution for Hailie Deegan getting loose in turn 1, the next restart turned the front of the field into a junkyard, wrecking 11 cars, mainly filled with contenders such as John Hunter Nemechek, Riley Herbst, Sam Mayer and others.

Benefiting from the almost-dozen-car wreck as well as leader Justin Allgaier suffering an unfortunate blown tire into turn 1, van Gisbergen would hold on to collect sixth.

I’m willing to bet that the championship race in November won’t feature something as spectacular like that, and even if the race did get chaotic, van Gisbergen finished behind the likes of Chandler Smith, Jesse Love, Sheldon Creed, Austin Hill and Custer, respectively, in the same race. All (minus Creed) I would consider more of a championship threat than van Gisbergen.

With the Charlotte ROVAL in the first round of the playoffs, van Gisbergen, with good finishes at Kansas Speedway and Talladega Superspeedway and the Charlotte ROVAL, could either point his way in realistically or just flat out win at Charlotte to advance to the second round.

However, with the second round being Las Vegas Motor Speedway, Homestead-Miami Speedway, and Martinsville Speedway on deck for the second round, I highly doubt that van Gisbergen will be able to keep up with the likes of Hill, Custer, Smith, Allgaier or others who are much stronger than him on the intermediate and short tracks to advance to Phoenix anyways.

Van Gisbergen will rightfully remain the heavy favorite on the road courses much like Marcos Ambrose was in the early 2010s, but with how the playoffs are structured around ovals and how far behind the curve both van Gisbergen and even Kaulig Racing seem to be this year, it would take a Hail Melon-caliber miracle for SVG to be in the championship conversation after the Round of 8. – Wyatt Watson