Race Weekend Central

Daily Fantasy NASCAR DraftKings Forecast: 2024 Wurth 400

Goodness gracious, Talladega Superspeedway was rough on me.

Everything looked good until the drivers in my roster spots began dropping like flies. And then, as it always does, “The Big One” claimed any hopes I had for a winning weekend.

But hey, that’s racing.

This weekend, we move on from the beast that is superspeedway racing to a true concrete monster. Dover Motor Speedway is a mile long, oval track not far from the site of the horse racing facilities that made the area famous. Dover’s concrete surface, high-banked corners and tight confines are difficult for a team to set a car up for, thus attrition can be pretty high here.

Getting onto pit road can also be treacherous, as its tight entry can cause a driver to easily speed coming in for a stop. It can also cause a driver to crash or spin, as Matt Kenseth found out back in 2005 when he crashed hard into the water barrels at pit entry. The pit boxes are also bound tightly together here, which can cause easy mistakes by crew members at any time.

It is referred to as a “self-cleaning racetrack” as well, due to the fact if you crash here, it is highly likely you are going to slide down off the track into the inside wall. Tire wear will be pivotal in determining who will be able to find success. Taming the “Monster Mile” is never an easy task, and just like last week, picking a roster that will survive the potentially high attrition will be tricky.

In my opinion, you have to reach deep into the stats sheets and pay attention to who found success at another concrete track on the schedule, which is Bristol Motor Speedway.

Coverage begins Sunday, April 28, at 2 p.m. ET on FOX.

As always, before we get into my lineup for the week, here’s a quick rules breakdown:

Points will be awarded on DraftKings for finishing position, position differential, fastest laps and laps led. The driver who wins the race scores 45 fantasy points, while second gets 42 points, third gets 41 points and so on, at least through the top 10. The 11th-place finisher scores 32 points, 21st gets 21 points and 31st gets 10 points.

See also
Brandon Jones Wins Dover Xfinity Pole

However, many spots they lose or gain on the track is added to or subtracted from the score. Then, if the driver leads a lap, they will earn 0.25 points for each lap led. They’ll also earn 0.45 points for each fastest lap.

Fantasy Forecast

  1. Martin Truex, Jr. ($11,300)

Stats that matter: Four career wins at Dover, defending winner of this race, career average finish of 11.4 at Dover, only two career DNFs at Dover in 33 starts.

Well, we’re in New England this week, which means we’re in Truex country.

The 2017 NASCAR Cup Series champion has always been remarkable at this track, which is where he picked up his very first Cup win. This is definitely one of his best tracks statistically as well, as his average finish attests to.

He has also won here in three different generations of cars, which is more than impressive. The No. 19 Toyota will almost certainly be out front at some point on Sunday, and he’s a pretty sure pick here, even with his large price tag.

Side note: If this race gets rained out, this is pretty close to being a sure bet. As Mike Joy would say “Mondays are for Martin.”

2. Chase Elliott ($9,900)

Stats that matter: Two career wins at Dover, career average finish of 9.8 at Dover, finished fifth at Bristol earlier this season, nine top-10 finishes in 13 career starts at Dover.

Another week, another statistically great track for NASCAR’s Most Popular Driver.

There is an argument to be made that Dover is Elliott’s best oval as he almost always runs well here. His average finish is astronomical, and he and Truex are the only two drivers who have won here in the Next Gen car.

As I always seem to mention when I pick him, he is known as a cerebral and methodical driver who always takes care of his equipment. Taking care of your stuff and running consistent laps are one of the keys to victory here, and there is perhaps none better than Elliott when it comes to doing just that.

3. Chris Buescher ($8,000)

Stats that matter: two straight top-10 finishes at Dover, finished seventh at Bristol, one career win on concrete track (Bristol 2022).

I’m sure when you think of Dover, you don’t think of driver No. 17, but he’s been quietly good here in the recent past.

Two consecutive top-10 runs at this place isn’t something to dismiss as a fluke by any means, and then of course, he’s really good at Bristol. It makes sense to me that he’ll be good on Sunday.

I look for Buescher to qualify well and run near the front nearly all race long.

4. Brad Keselowski ($7,700)

Stats that matter: Two straight second-place finishes, one career win at Dover (2012), three top-10 finishes in last five starts at Dover.

“Bad Brad” is so close to ending that winless streak that I bet he can taste it.

After heartbreak last week and coming up just short to Elliott the week before at Texas Motor Speedway, this team is furiously pressing the doorbell on their way to a win.

Statistically speaking, Dover isn’t one of his best tracks, but he’s got all the momentum in the world right now. Plus, he’s been super consistent over the past five seasons here, regardless of equipment.

His salary is also relatively cheap this week, so it’s a no-brainer to take him this week.

See also
Through the Gears: Dover Best Bets

5. Daniel Suarez ($6,700)

Stats that matter: Career average finish of 15.3 at Dover, with a career average start of 15.3.

Early in his career, Suarez was very, very good at Dover, as he rattled off four straight top-10 finishes between 2017 and 2018 here.

Since then, though, he’s been wildly inconsistent, finishing no better than ninth back in 2021. I think the No. 99 team is due for a good run though, and if he can find that early career magic again, he could be a dark horse contender.

Just like with Keselowski, taking Suarez here is a good financial move so you can keep the top of your lineup loaded with heavy hitters.

6. Jimmie Johnson ($6,100)

Stats that matter: 11 career wins at Dover (most all time), career average finish of 9.7 at Dover, finished third in most recent Dover start back in 2020

I know that the seven-time champion’s recent Cup Series starts have been abysmal, and I know that he’s not running his iconic No. 48 this weekend, but come on.

Back in the 2000s and 2010s, Johnson winning at Dover was as certain as death and taxes. He might not contend for a win this Sunday, or ever again in his career, but if there is anywhere he can turn in a good run for old time’s sake, it’s here.

At $6,100 and with that resume, he’s a must-have no matter how many points he ends up with.

Prop Bets & Locks

  1. Truex (+600) to win: Like I said in the lineup portion, this guy is amazing at Dover. It’s really shocking to me that he isn’t the favorite, but the odds makers are providing you with an good opportunity to cash in by setting them this way. Let Truex take you to the bank on Monday with this wager.
  2. Kyle Busch (+900) as top finishing Chevrolet: He’s had a miserable couple of months, but that has to turn around soon, right? Busch knows very well how to win here, and as long as RCR gives him a decent piece, he’s a good bet at +900.
  3. Ford (+350) to win: Ford is still soldiering on without a win this season, but they were dangerously close last week with three Fords in the top five coming out of Turn 4 at Talladega. It could be time for this bet to finally hit.

That’s all for this week! I hope your favorite driver’s car nor your betting slip get destroyed by the Monster Mile this weekend. Good luck as always, and happy betting!

About the author

Garrett joined Frontstretch as a news writer in 2023, and became a fantasy racing and betting writer in 2024. Hailing from the heart of coal country in southern West Virginia,  he's a married father of three and currently enrolled in the Physical Therapy Assistant Program at New River Community Technical College in Beaver, WV. He has been a racing fan since 1998, primarily watching NASCAR, but branching out to F1 and IndyCar as his love for motorsports has grown.

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