Since its inception in 1959, the Daytona 500 has had a week of pre-race festivities and on-track activity. It may no longer be an entire week of racing, but Speedweeks gives the Daytona 500 the most preparation of any event on the calendar.
Aside from its role in amping up the excitement for the Great American Race, Speedweeks is also the first chance for NASCAR Cup Series teams to flex their muscle. The Busch Light Clash left Daytona International Speedway after 2020 and the amount of practice sessions have dwindled, but there’s still qualifying, the Bluegreen Vacation Duels and the remaining practice sessions to gauge the speed and race ability of the 40 cars lined up on Sunday (Feb. 18).
Since the removal of the Clash, the biggest prizes up for grabs prior to the 500 are the pole position, the outside pole and a victory in one of the two qualifying races; those four drivers will make up the first two rows on Sunday.
Accomplishing any of these would generate fanfare, but how often do they correlate to success on Sunday?
For the pole position, the answer is very little. Dale Jarrett won the Daytona 500 from the pole in 2000, and the inside of the front row has been 0-for-23 since.
The polesitter hasn’t even come close to winning either. Only two of the last 23 500’s saw the polesitter finish in the top five (two fifths), and only six of the last 23 finished in the top 10. The polesitter only led the most laps once (Jeff Gordon in 2015), and the polesitter has only led more than 20 laps on four occasions. Conversely, 11 polesitters led either one lap or no laps on Sunday.
| Year | Polesitter | D500 Finish | D500 Laps Led |
| 2001 | Bill Elliott | 5th | 1 |
| 2002 | Jimmie Johnson | 15th | 0 |
| 2003 | Jeff Green | 39th (crash) | 0 |
| 2004 | Greg Biffle | 12th | 0 |
| 2005 | Dale Jarrett | 15th | 0 |
| 2006 | Jeff Burton | 32nd | 18 |
| 2007 | David Gilliland | 8th | 18 |
| 2008 | Jimmie Johnson | 27th | 1 |
| 2009 | Martin Truex Jr. | 11th | 1 |
| 2010 | Mark Martin | 12th | 11 |
| 2011 | Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 24th (crash) | 9 |
| 2012 | Carl Edwards | 8th | 0 |
| 2013 | Danica Patrick | 8th | 5 |
| 2014 | Austin Dillon | 9th | 1 |
| 2015 | Jeff Gordon | 33rd | 87 |
| 2016 | Chase Elliott | 37th | 3 |
| 2017 | Chase Elliott | 14th | 39 |
| 2018 | Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 17th | 13 |
| 2019 | William Byron | 21st (crash) | 44 |
| 2020 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 20th | 24 |
| 2021 | Alex Bowman | 35th (crash) | 1 |
| 2022 | Kyle Larson | 32nd (crash) | 1 |
| 2023 | Alex Bowman | 5th | 12 |
| 2024 | Joey Logano | ? | ? |
The winner of the Duels have had much better luck on Sunday, but even then, only two Duel winners since 2001 have gone on to win the 500: Dale Earnhardt Jr. in 2004 and Matt Kenseth in 2012.
Twelve of the 46 Duel winners scored a top five, 22 of the 46 earned a top 10 and 14 of the 46 failed to finish the race. Sixteen of the 46 went on to lead at least 20 laps, while four of the 46 led the most laps (in bold).
| Year | Duel 1 Winner | D500 Finish | D500 Laps Led | Duel 2 Winner | D500 Finish | D500 Laps Led |
| 2001 | Sterling Marlin | 7th | 39 | Mike Skinner | 26 | 24 |
| 2002 | Jeff Gordon | 9th | 19 | Michael Waltrip | 5th | 20 |
| 2003 | Robby Gordon | 6th | 0 | Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 36th | 22 |
| 2004 | Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 1st | 58 | Elliott Sadler | 7th | 0 |
| 2005 | Michael Waltrip | 37th (engine) | 42 | Tony Stewart | 7th | 107 |
| 2006 | Elliott Sadler | 4th | 5 | Jeff Gordon | 26th | 1 |
| 2007 | Tony Stewart | 43rd (crash) | 35 | Jeff Gordon | 10th | 0 |
| 2008 | Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 9th | 12 | Denny Hamlin | 17th | 32 |
| 2009 | Jeff Gordon | 13th | 14 | Kyle Busch | 41st (crash) | 88 |
| 2010 | Jimmie Johnson | 35th (rear axle) | 0 | Kasey Kahne | 30th (crash) | 4 |
| 2011 | Kurt Busch | 5th | 19 | Jeff Burton | 36th (engine) | 5 |
| 2012 | Tony Stewart | 16th | 3 | Matt Kenseth | 1st | 50 |
| 2013 | Kevin Harvick | 42nd (crash) | 0 | Kyle Busch | 34th (engine) | 0 |
| 2014 | Matt Kenseth | 6th | 0 | Denny Hamlin | 2nd | 16 |
| 2015 | Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 3rd | 32 | Jimmie Johnson | 5th | 39 |
| 2016 | Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 36th | 15 | Kyle Busch | 3rd | 19 |
| 2017 | Chase Elliott | 14th | 39 | Denny Hamlin | 17th | 0 |
| 2018 | Ryan Blaney | 7th | 118 | Chase Elliott | 33rd (crash) | 4 |
| 2019 | Kevin Harvick | 26th (crash) | 0 | Joey Logano | 4th | 11 |
| 2020 | Joey Logano | 26th (crash) | 6 | William Byron | 40th (crash) | 0 |
| 2021 | Aric Almirola | 34th (crash) | 0 | Austin Dillon | 3rd | 7 |
| 2022 | Brad Keselowski | 9th | 67 | Chris Buescher | 16th | 0 |
| 2023 | Joey Logano | 2nd | 12 | Aric Almirola | 21st (crash) | 16 |
| 2024 | Tyler Reddick | ? | ? | Christopher Bell | ? | ? |
As pure speed and drafting speed are two entirely different variables, it’s not a surprise to see the Duel winners have significantly more success on Sunday than the polesitters. Still, winning a Duel does not automatically guarantee a winning car in the 500.
As for the drivers that actually won the Daytona 500? Their qualifying speeds look like they were drawn out of a hat. Nine of the 23 won the 500 after qualifying outside the top 20, while only six qualified inside the top five.
It’s important to note that only the first two spots of the 500 are locked in by qualifying. Speeds from third on back only set the starting order for the Duels.
| Year | D500 Winner | D500 Laps led | D500 Qualifying | Duel Finish |
| 2001 | Michael Waltrip | 27 | 13th | 9th |
| 2002 | Ward Burton | 5 | 5th | 9th |
| 2003 | Michael Waltrip | 68 | 4th | 2nd |
| 2004 | Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 58 | 3rd | 1st |
| 2005 | Jeff Gordon | 29 | 3rd | 7th |
| 2006 | Jimmie Johnson | 24 | 5th (disallowed) | 4th |
| 2007 | Kevin Harvick | 4 | 29th | 29th (rear end) |
| 2008 | Ryan Newman | 8 | 23rd | 3rd |
| 2009 | Matt Kenseth | 7 | 23rd | 26th (crash) |
| 2010 | Jamie McMurray | 2 | 19th | 6th |
| 2011 | Trevor Bayne | 6 | 3rd | 19th (crash) |
| 2012 | Matt Kenseth | 50 | 16th | 1st |
| 2013 | Jimmie Johnson | 17 | 21st | 4th |
| 2014 | Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 54 | 7th | 4th |
| 2015 | Joey Logano | 31 | 21st | 3rd |
| 2016 | Denny Hamlin | 95 | 10th | 5th |
| 2017 | Kurt Busch | 1 | 22nd | 3rd |
| 2018 | Austin Dillon | 1 | 14th | 6th |
| 2019 | Denny Hamlin | 30 | 12th | 4th |
| 2020 | Denny Hamlin | 79 | 5th | 11th |
| 2021 | Michael McDowell | 1 | 27th | 9th |
| 2022 | Austin Cindric | 21 | 21st | 2nd |
| 2023 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 10 | 35th | 16th |
| 2024 | ? | ? | ? |
A team can have a fast or slow car in single-car qualifying thanks to the great equalizer of the draft. The Duels, however, paint a far different picture.
Eighteen of the last 23 500 winners finished top 10 in their qualifying race, and that includes 13 who finished in the top six. When excluding the three DNFs, a driver has only won the 500 in the 21st century after finishing 11th or worse in a Duel on two occasions: Denny Hamlin in 2020 (11th) and last year’s Daytona 500 champion Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (16th).
A driver doesn’t have to win a Duel, but the common denominator is having a car capable of contenting for the win by finishing in the highest third or quartile of the running order.
As the page turns toward the 66th running of the Great American Race, keep an eye on the top five and top 10 of each Duel. History says that Sunday’s winner will most likely hail from one of those groups.
Stephen Stumpf is the NASCAR Content Director for Frontstretch and is a three-year veteran of the site. His weekly column is “Stat Sheet,” and he formerly wrote "4 Burning Questions" for three years. He also writes commentaries, contributes to podcasts, edits articles and is frequently at the track for on-site coverage.
Find Stephen on Twitter @stephen_stumpf