Race Weekend Central

Daily Fantasy NASCAR DraftKings Forecast: 2023 Pala Casino 400 at Auto Club

The second race of the NASCAR Cup Series season is the start of the West Coast swing in not-so-sunny California.

Read on for my daily fantasy NASCAR DraftKings picks for the 2023 Pala Casino 400 at Auto Club Speedway, airing Sunday, Feb. 26 at 3:30 p.m. ET on FOX.

This is a bit of a bittersweet week for me, as I’m sure it is for everyone heading to Fontana, Calif. I love this track; it’s had some great races in the last few years thanks to its high tire wear. It’s also the closest to my hometown. But it’s the last time drivers will take on this 2-mile oval, as it’s set to be reconfigured to a half-mile track in the future.

That means it’s the final time we get to play on DraftKings with this layout.

When you make your DraftKings rosters this week, try to target drivers that are good at high-tire wear racetracks, like Darlington Raceway and Homestead-Miami Speedway. You can also look at drivers’ historical stats at Auto Club.

Keep in mind that there’s rain expected most of Saturday, so you might not get to see how drivers will perform in their limited practice time. The starting lineup would be set by the rulebook if qualifying gets rained out, which is likely the metric formula used predominantly in 2020. If this does happen, there would be some really good value on DraftKings, since so many top drivers crashed at Daytona International Speedway last week.

Before I share this week’s picks for Auto Club, here’s a look at how last week’s drivers did on DraftKings:

DraftKings SalaryDriverDraftKings Score
$10,300Denny Hamlin31.2
$10,100Ryan Blaney35.25
$9,400Bubba Wallace21.05
$8,200Austin Cindric2.45
$8,000Austin Dillon4.7
$6,800Ryan Preece-6.85
$6,500Michael McDowell-1.2
$5,600Justin Haley7.7

A lot of these drivers were caught up in late crashes and weren’t able to get a good finish. But that happens sometimes at superspeedways; you can’t really control whether your driver will get lucky or not.

Let’s review the NASCAR DraftKings scoring rules.

The winner on the racetrack tallies 45 points, while second place gets 42, third 41 and so on. Tenth place scores 34, while 11th gets 32, and decreasing by one from there through 20th. This pattern repeats for 21st through 30th and 31st through 40th.

Additionally, drivers can earn or lose a point depending on where they finish. For example, if Christopher Bell started third and won, he would gain two points in addition to his finishing position points, totaling 47 fantasy points.

See also
NASCAR 101: Closing a Chapter on Auto Club Speedway

Drivers also can earn .45 for each fastest lap and .25 for each lap they lead.

NASCAR DraftKings Scoring

Also, I will be hosting a free NASCAR DraftKings league that will run each week for the Cup Series only. It’s free to join, but as of now it’s just for bragging rights. You’ll get to compete against me and some of my colleagues.

Here is the link to the league:

2023 Frontstretch NASCAR DraftKings League

Now, here are my picks!

Note: Stats below include Cup only at Martinsville Speedway, Bristol Motor Speedway and Richmond Raceway

DraftKings Picks: Top Tier ($9,300-$10,800)

Kyle Larson ($10,800)
Career at Auto Club: 8 starts, 2 wins, 4 top fives, 4 top 10s
Average finish at Auto Club: 13.0

Kyle Larson is the defending winner, going to victory lane after a tight battle with his teammate Chase Elliott. He led just 28 laps in the race, but that was all he needed to bring home his first victory of 2022.

The No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports driver had some good green flag speed last year at the high tire wear tracks as well as Michigan International Speedway, the other 2-mile course on the circuit. Larson had a top 10 average speed in four of last year’s five events at high-tire wear tracks, including at Homestead en route to the win.

Larson also had the fourth-best average speed across all the intermediate tracks last year, according to ifantasyrace.com. This chart measures speed by segments in each race.

If Larson carries the momentum over from last year, he should be fast right off the bat this weekend.

Kyle Busch ($10,300)
Career at Auto Club: 23 starts, 4 wins, 11 top fives, 16 top 10s
Average finish at Auto Club: 9.8

It’s actually baffling how Kyle Busch was able to get up to a 14th place at Auto Club last year. His average running position was about 29th! That’s a good effort for him.

But now he’s with Richard Childress Racing, and this race will be key to know how quickly he and his team can gel, especially if practice and qualifying rain out. Busch should do better; after all, Tyler Reddick had great speed in this car in 2022 (more on him later).

Busch himself has four wins and the best average finish among active drivers (besides Jimmie Johnson, who’s not in this race). When Busch won in 2019, he dominated, leading 134 laps. Now, RCR isn’t as strong as the other teams, but it does have some wins in recent years. Could Kyle Busch get one Sunday? Even if he doesn’t, he should still do well on DraftKings.

Ross Chastain ($9,900)
Career at Auto Club: 4 starts, 0 wins, 0 top fives, 0 top 10s
Average finish at Auto Club: 25.8

Pay no attention to Ross Chastain‘s average finish at Fontana. Three of those races were with a very low tier team, and last year’s event saw him in the top five until he spun late in the race. Otherwise, he likely would have had a good finish.

Although Chastain didn’t have top 10 green flag speed at Auto Club in 2022, he did at both Darlington races, Michigan and Homestead. His No. 1 Trackhouse Racing Team Chevrolet didn’t finish well in the first Darlington race, but he placed eighth in the Southern 500 and second at Homestead.

Since Auto Club is so wide, it may reward Chastain’s aggressive driving style should he slide around and dive deep under cars. It might also reward your DraftKings account if he finishes well and records fastest laps.

(Also like Martin Truex Jr.)

Middle Tier ($7,300-$9,100)

Tyler Reddick ($9,100)
Career at Auto Club: 2 starts, 0 wins, 0 top fives, 0 top 10s
Average finish at Auto Club: 17.5

This type of track suits Reddick very well. In fact, he had the second best green flag speed at Auto Club a year ago and led 90 laps, though he finished 24th.

Reddick also had a top five average speed in this same category at the first Darlington race, coming home in second place. While he won twice at road courses last year, he also won at Texas Motor Speedway, surviving the flat-tire plagued race.

Now he’s piloting a Toyota at 23XI Racing, and I have no doubt he can show up with speed once again on Sunday. If he does, he’ll score well on DraftKings.

See also
Fire on Fridays: Ryan Blaney Needs to Make a Splash in 2023

Erik Jones ($7,700)
Career at Auto Club: 5 starts, 0 wins, 1 top five, 3 top 10s
Average finish at Auto Club: 10.2

Reddick had the second-best average speed during the green-flag runs at Fontana, but Erik Jones was the fastest. Jones followed up that speed with a third-place finish after leading 18 laps. It was his best finish at this track, better than what he did with Joe Gibbs Racing.

Jones also won at Darlington last fall after Busch and Truex had engine trouble. He led 23 laps on the way to the victory.

He’s low enough salary-wise that he should hit value if he earns a good result on Sunday.

Low Tier ($4,700-$7,100)

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($7,100)
Career at Auto Club: 9 starts, 0 wins, 1 top five, 2 top 10s
Average finish at Auto Club: 17.6

Welcome back to victory lane, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. and JTG Daugherty Racing! Stenhouse got to the front when it mattered and became a Daytona 500 champion last week. Can he carry that momentum to this week across the country?

He might. In 2022, Stenhouse had the seventh-quickest green-flag speed and earned a top 10 by race’s end. Unfortunately, that was one of Stenhouse’s few bright spots of the season.

He does have one other top 10 at Fontana, though: a fifth place back in 2016.

Stenhouse’s salary is a little high, but could be a nice fill-in for your lineups on DraftKings.

AJ Allmendinger ($6,400)
Career at Auto Club: 14 starts, 0 wins, 0 top fives, 2 top 10s
Average finish at Auto Club: 19.4

AJ Allmendinger didn’t run very many intermediate tracks last year, but he did cross the line in 10th at World Wide Technology Raceway. Additionally, he placed third at Homestead last fall, posting the fifth-fastest green flag speed.

At Fontana, the No. 16 Kaulig Racing driver has a pair of eighth-place finishes while running for JTG, in 2014 and 2016.

I like his low salary to help you fit some of the top-tier drivers in your roster.

About the author

Joy joined Frontstretch in 2019 as a NASCAR DraftKings writer, expanding to news and iRacing coverage in 2020. She's currently an assistant editor and involved with photos, social media and news editing. A California native, Joy was raised as a motorsports fan and started watching NASCAR extensively in 2001. She earned her B.A. degree in Liberal Studies at California State University Bakersfield in 2010.

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