5 Points to Ponder: Gauging Keselowski, Earnhardt Momentum Post-Kansas

Weโ€™re now exactly halfway to the Chase cutoff point and if things continue apace weโ€™re certainly not going to be lacking excitement across the sweltering summer months; as the heat descends upon us, the scrabble for Chase positions and the inherent tension of making the big dance ratchets up notch by notch and week by week.

One driver who will be about a billion times happier with that is the driver of the No. 2 Miller Lite Penske Racing Dodge, Big Bad Brad Keselowski who eked out his second ever victory in two-plus seasons (albeit thanks to fuel mileage) which is where weโ€™ll start this weekโ€™s edition of Five Points to Ponder.

ONE: Big Win for the Blue Deuce and Penske Racing

Few drivers have announced themselves on the Cup circuit with quite the clamor that surrounded the third-generation racer Keselowski. The Michigan native won at Talladega in just his fifth Cup race in a finish that saw Cousin Carl Edwards go airborne into the catchfence and come perilously close to causing an unprecedented level of carnage. But after such a rambunctious start, Keselowskiโ€™s first full year at the Cup level was nothing if not disappointing โ€“ picking up just two top 10s and finishing a distant 25th in the standings.

This season, through the first nine races, Keselowski had a best finish of 15th but in the past few weeks, results have picked up notably. A third place at Darlington and a strong run at Charlotte in the 600 suggested the situation was looking up for both driver and also the Penske organization as a whole.

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Itโ€™s an improvement thatโ€™s not lost on team owner Roger Penske: “I think we’ve made a lot of progress the last several weeks,” said the Captain. “People haven’t really noticed itโ€ฆ but this is a real step-up for us. These are the tracks that were tough for us, the 1.5-miles. It looks like we have a handle on these now. The engines: we’ve had good power, but we need more. And we need better handling. We’ve added more engineering capability this year; we’re starting to see it now that we didn’t have last year.โ€

And with Kurt Busch, who spent much of the early-mid part of the season spewing profanities at all and sundry, also running much better the signs are much more promising and as Keselowski noted in victory lane one more win might just land him in the Chase. And speaking of such mattersโ€ฆ

TWO: The Wildcard Factor Might Just Be the Wildest of Them All

As things stand, Jeff Gordonโ€™s Phoenix win is currently enough to make him eligible for the final Chase transfer spot (beating out the Biff who currently sits in 12th), but as we head deeper and deeper into the summer stretch of races the premium that will be placed on wins will only rise. Simply put, one win might be enough to make you Chase eligible โ€“ provided youโ€™re in the top 20 in points โ€“ and two wins all but guarantees you a spot.

The new wrinkle in the rules in the antithesis of points racing and this humble scribe thinks itโ€™s fantastic. Itโ€™s something I wrote about a few weeks back and itโ€™s only going to become a bigger and bigger factor each week. As an exuberant Keselowski pointed out in victory lane one more win could see him locked into the Chase (again, provided he can make it into the top 20 โ€“ he sits in 21st seven points out right now.)

Of course without the benefit of a year to see how this system will play out itโ€™s hard to be quite so definitive but thereโ€™s little doubt, for those not locked into the top 10 in points, the value of a win might have never been higher. Just ask someone like Denny Hamlin, whoโ€™s showing signs of life after a tepid start, about how important a win would be this weekend at the Tricky Triangle.

THREE: Boogity, Boogity Bye Bye

And while weโ€™re on the topic of the 2.5-mile triangle shaped track at Pocono it will certainly be great to herald the return of TNT for their traditional six-race portion of the schedule. Nestled between the monoliths of FOX and ESPN, the cable channelโ€™s coverage of NASCAR has been nothing short of excellent in the past few seasons with the likes of Kyle Petty providing the sort of analysis and reasoning Darrell Waltrip wouldnโ€™t recognize if it socked him in the kipper.

The predilection of both the FOX and ESPN broadcasts to unnecessary hype and manufactured storylines is such that TNTโ€™s coverage is like a still small voice of calm. Race Buddy, their interactive component, is another key piece of the TNT puzzle and itโ€™s just a shame it canโ€™t be used throughout the Cup Series schedule. Regardless, Iโ€™m going to sit back, put my feet up and enjoy the TNT coverage โ€“ they do it right and thereโ€™s a lot to be said for that.

FOUR: $150K Well Spent

And speaking of doing it right โ€“ or at least doing it proper old school, I canโ€™t help but feel Richard Childress might just consider his $150K fine as money well spent since he finally got the chance to mete out some old fashioned justice to Kyle Busch. Unlike his driver, Kevin Harvick, who chose to punch a helmeted Busch (yeah like thatโ€™s going to send a message) Childress got the job done in the garage post race, amazingly away from the prying public eye.

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Clearly, this was a beat down that had been a while in the making and judging by RCโ€™s non-apology statement on the fine itโ€™s clear that if he had his druthers, heโ€™d do it all over again. Yes, $150K is a lot of money but for a man not exactly short of a cent or two and given the money will go to charity, I canโ€™t help but feel that behind closed doors Childress will have a little chuckle or at the very least a wry grin

FIVE: It’ll Come, Dale Junior

Wry grins are something of a specialty for Dale Earnhardt Jr. and thatโ€™s what we saw from the veteran as for a second straight week a fuel mileage/strategy gamble didnโ€™t quite work out, but I canโ€™t help but feel itโ€™s only a matter of time before Junior heads to victory lane. Recovering from a self-inflicted mid-race spin, the wheelman of the No. 88 Chevy, stole a march on the field and drove his way to a second consecutive first-loser finish.

Itโ€™s these kind of finishes that separate the elite drivers and as Junior noted post-race: โ€œYou always scratch your head when Jimmie [Johnson] and them guys look like theyโ€™re out of it and next thing you turn around at the end of the race and theyโ€™re right there in the middle of it. And youโ€™re like: How in the world? So now I guess Iโ€™m on that side of the fence. I see some of it and I see why it happens.โ€

Iโ€™ve said it before, and Iโ€™ll say it again (and again), NASCAR needs Junior to run well and under the expert tutelage of Steve Letarte thatโ€™s precisely whatโ€™s happening. Iโ€™m just glad we wonโ€™t have to listen to DW weeping tears of joy for June Bug when the win finally comes.

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Danny Peters has written for Frontstretch since 2006. An English transplant living in San Francisco, by way of New York City, heโ€™s had an award-winning marketing career with some of the biggest companies sponsoring sports. Working with racers all over the country, his freelance writing has even reached outside the world of racing to include movie screenplays.