The NASCAR Cup Series is back at Bristol Motor Speedway for the second time this season. This time, there is postseason implications as the third round of The Chase will kick off with the Bass Pro Shops Night Race at 7:30 p.m. on Saturday, Sept. 19.
The Tennessee short track is the “fastest” half-mile track in the world and has brought NASCAR some great racing this season. After breaking a 51-race winless streak, it’s no surprise Kyle Larson is the favorite to win at Bristol. It also helps that Larson is great at Bristol, winning three races there since 2021.
Denny Hamlin, Ty Gibbs, Ryan Blaney and Christopher Bell are not far behind Larson in odds. Blaney is the only one of those four who doesn’t have a win at Bristol, but he did finish second and led 190 laps at the spring Bristol race this year.
Out of the Chase drivers, the one I would stay away from is Daniel Suarez, who has an average finish of 25.3 in the past six races at Bristol. Suarez also hasn’t finished inside the top 10 in any of his starts at Bristol, with his closest being 12th, which he got in the spring race earlier this year. That 12th-place finish was also his first top 15 at the track in his career.
Fantasy Forecast
Kyle Larson $11,500
Larson is the gambling favorite at Bristol.
In his past eight starts at Bristol, Larson has finished outside the top five only once. In that race, Larson spun on lap 365 and ended up five laps down in 32nd. Outside of that, he has three wins, a second and a third-place finish and two fifth-place finishes. The No. 5 is by far the strongest car at Bristol in the Next Gen era, and with his first win of the season coming last weekend, Larson going on a hot streak is very likely.
Look out for the No. 5 Chevrolet Camero starting on pole to be near the front all day with a great shot to win it.
Ty Gibbs $10,400
Gibbs is having a breakout year in 2026. Before this season, his best finish in the Cup Series points was 15th in 2024, but in 2026, he has been on a heater.
Gibbs has been historically great at Bristol, with the best average finish among drivers with multiple starts at 7.2. At the spring Bristol race earlier this season, Gibbs took the checkered flag for the first win of his Cup career. During that race, he led 25 laps and finished fourth in stage two as well. In his other races at Bristol, Gibbs has four top 10’s, including two top fives in April 2025 and Sept. 2023.
Watch out for Gibbs this weekend because he is as confident as ever and with that, he is dangerous. Gibbs starts 13th on Saturday.
Denny Hamlin $11,000
Hamlin and success at Bristol are synonymous with each other.
Hamin has four wins at the famous half-mile, which is the most among active drivers. Although he hasn’t won since the spring race in 2024, Hamlin has seven top 10’s in the past eight races, including two wins during a four race top-five stretch between Sept. 2023 and April 2025.
In the most recent race. Hamlin finished ninth after getting stage points in both stages. With his back to the wall entering the third Chase race, Hamlin needs to get his act together if he wants to finally win that elusive title. Hamlin starts third on Saturday.
Ryan Blaney $11,200
Blaney has been strong at Bristol in recent memory. In the past four races at Bristol, Blaney has finished sixth or better, with his best finish being second, which he got at the spring Bristol race earlier this year.
In his three most recent races, Blaney has started in the top five, but tomorrow is a little different. Blaney starts in 29th due to qualifying being cancelled, which is the lowest Blaney has started at Bristol in his career. The last time he started 20th or worse at Bristol was in Sept. 2024, when he started 22nd and finished sixth.
Blaney has always been fast at Bristol, but starting 29th could be too much to overcome. He will probably still finish well, but a win might be completely out of the picture come Saturday.
Brad Keselowski $8,100
Brad Keselowski is a very good driver when he’s on, and last week at World Wide Technology Raceway proved that. This week, he is my underdog as Keselowski has a good track record at the legendary half-mile.
Keselowski is tied for second among active drivers in wins at Bristol with three, but his most recent came on May 31, 2020 while he was still at Team Penske. Even with this winless streak at Bristol, he came close in the 2025 Bristol night race, finishing second behind Bell.
With the pace Keselowski showed last week, if he can get the setup right, this could be an interesting race for him, especially since he is starting 11th.
Top Bets of the Week
Larson +400 to win
I think it’s obvious that Larson is ready to make another statement in The Chase. At a track where he run wells, after the win he had last week, it’s a no-brainer to pick him to win.
But if you don’t want to pick Larson….
Dark Horse of the Week: Joey Logano +1200
Logano hasn’t had the best success at Bristol over the course of his career, but with back-to-back top 10’s, including fifth place a year ago, Logano is one to watch for the win. “Sliced Bread” is a very fast driver at short tracks, and in a Penske Ford that has come alive as of late, in an even year on top of that, Logano is the clear dark horse for this week.
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