Friday Faceoff: Can Ross Chastain Make The Chase?

1) Where will Austin Dillon finish at Richmond Raceway?

Michael Bellifemini: Austin Dillon could nab a top five and definitely another top 10 after his run at Iowa Speedway. I’m hesitant to pick him to win his third-straight race at Richmond, not because of him but more because of his competition. The Toyotas have been winning everywhere, so I’d pick one of them to win over Dillon right now despite the No. 3 team’s success there lately.

Gabriel Goodman: I expect Dillon to finish top 10. While he is the two-time defending winner of the race, Richard Childress Racing won’t have the same speed at Richmond this season as it did in the last couple of years. Dillon will finish sixth.

Scott Clemons-Baker: It’s hard not to predict a three-peat for Dillon. But the lack of speed in the Chevrolets will limit him to the back half of the top 10 this year. I predict a solid eighth for Dillon.

Luken Glover: Don’t be surprised if a three-peat happens, but it will be a tough feat. That said, Dillon had one of his best runs of the season at Iowa, likely the closest comparison to Richmond. However, Richmond’s surface and characteristics, as well as the tire compound, should play even more into the hands of Dillon. The primary hurdle standing in his path is Toyota. While not as successful in the Next Gen era, Toyota has historically made Richmond into its playground, especially with hometown favorite Denny Hamlin. Add in the fact that both he and Christopher Bell are among the best in average finish at Richmond, while Ty Gibbs is the most recent short track winner, and Joe Gibbs Racing looms even larger. Team Penske also placed all three of its cars in the top five a year ago, and it has two of the best short-track drivers in Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano. Dillon will be a factor in the top five again, but there is too much firepower for him to pull off a rare feat.

Stephen Stumpf: Dillon will finish top five. His back-to-back wins at Richmond speak for themselves, but with how fast the Toyotas have been this year, a Toyota driver will take home the win at what has been historically one of its strongest tracks.

Cameron Bebeau: Top five. His recent consistency, combined with his history at Richmond, makes me comfortable taking him for at least a top-five finish. RCR also showed some decent speed at Iowa, which should translate reasonably to Richmond. While the track is a special case and has been circled on its calendar all year, I wouldn’t say he’ll win without seeing how RCR unloads in practice.

2) Which driver will end their winless streak first: Christopher Bell or Kyle Larson?

Christopher Hansen: Christopher Bell. The seven second-place finishes Bell has accrued this season have him frustrated and determined to score his first win since last fall’s Bristol Motor Speedway race. After an up-and-down first part of the season, Bell has certainly turned his season around, moving up to sixth in points following Iowa after entering the weekend 10th. Driver No. 20 has race-winning speed, and it’s only a matter of time before the floodgates open.

Steve Sonderman: Bell’s current problem is execution in the closing laps of the race. Kyle Larson’s current problem is staying on the racetrack. Those two things are not the same. Combine that with what seems to be a clear OEM advantage for Bell, and the choice leans toward him.

Bebeau: Bell. Six runner-up finishes in the last 11 races are enough to convince me that Bell is most likely to break through first; no other stats needed. I’m a believer in momentum, and Bell has had it throughout the summer, even with his injury. Larson has had solid finishes and does have the speed to win at times, but his lows have been much lower than Bell’s recently, making it hard to predict when he’ll rebound.

Goodman: Bell will end his winless streak first, and it will come at Richmond this weekend. Despite being winless, Bell has been having a spectacular summer stretch, finishing runner-up in four of the last five races. Eventually, he will get one spot better, and it will happen on Saturday. Although he has never won at Richmond, he almost always runs well in Central Virginia. I do expect Larson to win a race this season, but Bell has been so close to a win that a trip to victory lane for the No. 20 team is imminent.

Clemons-Baker: Larson was close early in the summer, but Bell is the clear answer here. He is driving for the fastest team this season, and it is only a matter of time before he turns one of these second-place runs into a victory. I would not be surprised if Bell broke through this weekend.

Bellifemini: These two elite drivers are trending in opposite directions right now, and with New Hampshire Motor Speedway coming up soon, I have to go with Bell. I still think Larson’s team is capable of putting together a winning run, but Bell has been on the doorstep so many times this season. It just hasn’t come together, but I’m confident in the group enough that its win is coming.

3) Now just 47 points out, will Ross Chastain make The Chase?

Glover: Give Ross Chastain credit, he has made a gutsy run to be in the Chase conversation after disappearing for most of the season. That said, it may be too little, too late for him to make a run. Chastain has had solid results at both Richmond and New Hampshire, but neither offer eye-popping statistics. If he leaves both of those races in a similar points scenario, that leaves Daytona International Speedway as his last hope. Chastain will have to out-point both Austin Cindric and Ryan Preece, as well as hope no one behind him jumps him. Compared to Cindric, who holds the last spot, the Penske driver has outscored Chastain in points in four of the last six races. He also finished fifth at Richmond a year ago, while Chastain finished 19th. You also have to factor in Preece, who led 60 laps at Richmond last year and has a knack for tracks like New Hampshire. Ultimately, there may be too many hurdles for Chastain to clear.

Goodman: Even with a solid performance at Iowa, Chastain will not make The Chase. Chastain would need to gain 15 points on bubble driver Cindric per race, and while not impossible, it is a tall task. In 2026, Cindric finished fifth at Richmond and 17th at New Hampshire. Though Cindric wrecked at Daytona last year and finished poorly, Chastain can’t rely on chaos to get in the top 16. If the No. 1 wants to be in The Chase, it has to go out there and make things happen.

Stumpf: If Trackhouse keeps bringing cars like it did at Iowa, yes. Chastain went from 82 to 47 behind the cutoff from his Iowa performance alone, and given that Iowa, Richmond and New Hampshire are all short, flat tracks, the No. 1 has the ability to make a ton of headway on their deficit in the next two weeks. Making up 47 points in three races is still a lofty challenge, however, so even if Chastain is fast, he’ll need a good finish at Daytona to seal the deal.

Sonderman: Chastain making The Chase would be a great comeback story to a disappointing year, but I don’t see it happening. Not only is he 18 points behind Preece in 17th, he is also only one point ahead of Brad Keselowski and three clear of Erik Jones. Chastain’s team historically has closed out the year strong, but the math is not on his side.

Hansen: No. Chastain and Trackhouse Racing have had an up-and-down season, and while one good showing at Iowa gives the No. 1 team confidence, this won’t be sustainable over the final three regular-season races. To make The Chase, Chastain is going to have to duplicate his Iowa performance by scoring stage points and consistently stay ahead of bubble drivers Shane van Gisbergen and Cindric. While those two drivers struggled mightily at Iowa, I don’t expect them to both have down weekends moving forward, which makes the job of making up a 47-point deficit to the cut line tougher for Chastain.

4) Which NASCAR O’Reilly Auto Parts Series driver is the most Cup-ready prospect?

Stumpf: None of them. Justin Allgaier at 40 years old is dominating the O’Reilly circuit, and the O’Reilly cars race completely different from the Next Gen to where it’s not a good litmus test as to who’s ready for racing at the Cup level. Carson Kvapil, Corey Day and Brent Crews look promising, but they have a long way to go before taking that next step.

Bellifemini: Most of the top, young drivers still have a lot of developing to do, so I’ll go with the guy who is going Cup racing next year, Jesse Love. Although he is winless this season, he’s still top five in points, and he is good at keeping his nose out of trouble and driving cleanly.

Sonderman: I won’t let one week take me off the Crews hype train. Last weekend at Iowa was a tough look, but he’s still in the final postseason spot despite missing the first four races. At times he has shown his youth, as he is only 18 years old. When I was 18, I applied for a credit card just so I could get a free $5 footlong from Subway. We all make mistakes. He would benefit from another year to learn from these mistakes in the O’Reilly Series, but his talent is undeniable.

Glover: It became comical to watch how many runner-up finishes he scored before his first win, but Sheldon Creed shouldn’t be slept on. Sure, he only has one win in his O’Reilly career thus far. You know who else only had a single victory in the series? Jimmie Johnson. That’s not to compare Creed to the seven-time Cup champion, but it’s further proof that O’Reilly success, or the lack thereof, doesn’t define a career. Creed has quietly been one of the most consistent drivers in the field this year, scoring the second-most top fives (nine) and top 10s (15) to this point. There may be no room for him to move to Cup soon, but he continues to show marked improvement each season.

Hansen: Carson Kvapil. After being close several times during his NOAPS career, Kvapil scored his first two career wins in back-to-back races at Indianapolis Motor Speedway and Iowa. While he’s split time this season between JR Motorsports and DGM Racing, Kvapil seems right at home with JRM. Now that he’s got the pressure of having not won off his back, I expect Kvapil to work closely with team owner Dale Earnhardt Jr. to see what opportunities exist outside of the NOAPS for Kvapil in the future.

Bebeau: Creed. He isn’t the young hotshot or the most successful driver in the series, but it’s difficult to stand out for a Cup seat when the cars behave nothing alike and when the last two seasons have largely been the JR Motorsports show. Creed has quietly developed very well and has the experience that could make him an intriguing Cup prospect if the right opportunity came along.

Clemons-Baker: Even with his lack of experience, I would turn to Crews first when looking for Cup prospects in the O’Reilly Series. His driving certainly needs some refining, but the speed and raw talent are undeniable.